Impact

Public Policy Benefits

This research project traces out the whole process from the small, entrepreneurial firms, to their opportunities and funding choices, and then examine how, when and where this process can lead to productivity growth. It explores the chain of events in great detail and cover the full range of investment opportunities and potential sources of finance. Such broad overview will provide great benefits for public policy-makers: 

Academic Beneficiaries 

The research project will add significant new theoretical and empirical insight to the academic literature and fill in the significant gap in our knowledge of the financial position of UK SMEs. Following are the disciplines that will benefit from the research:

Journal Publications

Andrieş, A. M., Ongena, S., Sprincean, N., & Tunaru, R. (2022). Risk spillovers and interconnectedness between systemically important institutions. Journal of Financial Stability, 58, 100963.

Badescu, A., Quaye, E., & Tunaru, R. (2022). On non-negative equity guarantee calculations with macroeconomic variables related to house prices. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 103, 119-138.

Baruník, J., Bevilacqua, M., & Tunaru, R. (2022). Asymmetric network connectedness of fears. Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(6), 1304-1316.

Bevilacqua, M., Tunaru, R., & Vioto, D. (2023). Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns. Journal of Financial Markets, 100834.

Brown, R., Liñares-Zegarra, J. M., & Wilson, J. O. (2022). Innovation and borrower discouragement in SMEs. Small Business Economics, 59(4), 1489-1517.

Brown, R., Mawson, S., & Rocha, A. (2023). Places are not like people: the perils of anthropomorphism within entrepreneurial ecosystems research. Regional Studies, 57(2), 384-396.

Bueff, A. C., Cytryński, M., Calabrese, R., Jones, M., Roberts, J., Moore, J., & Brown, I. (2022). Machine learning interpretability for a stress scenario generation in credit scoring based on counterfactuals. Expert Systems with Applications, 202, 117271.

Calabrese, R. (2023). Contagion effects of UK small business failures: A spatial hierarchical autoregressive model for binary data. European Journal of Operational Research, 305(2), 989-997.

Calabrese, R., Degl’Innocenti, M., & Zhou, S. (2022). Expectations of access to debt finance for SMEs in times of uncertainty. Journal of Small Business Management, 60(6), 1351-1378.

Calabrese, R., Dombrowski, T., Mandel, A., Pace, R. K., & Zanin, L. (2024). Impacts of extreme weather events on mortgage risks and their evolution under climate change: A case study on Florida. European Journal of Operational Research, 314(1), 377-392.

Calabrese, R., & Zanin, L. (2022). Modelling spatial dependence for Loss Given Default in peer-to-peer lending. Expert Systems with Applications, 192, 116295. 

Chen, Y., Calabrese, R., & Martin-Barragan, B. (2024). Interpretable machine learning for imbalanced credit scoring datasets. European Journal of Operational Research, 312(1), 357-372.

Chen, J., Calabrese, R., & Cowling, M. (2024). Does energy efficiency of UK SMEs affect their access to finance? Energy Economics, 129, 107251.

Cowling, M., Brown, R. C., Liu, W., & Rocha, A. (2023). Getting left behind? The localised consequences of exclusion from the credit market for UK SMEs. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, rsad033

Cowling, M., & Dvouletý, O. (2023a). UK government-backed start-up loans: Tackling disadvantage and credit rationing of new entrepreneurs. International Small Business Journal, 41(7), 714-733.

Cowling, M., & Dvouletý, O. (2023b). When a non-gendered start-up policy delivers for female entrepreneurs: Evidence from the UK start-up loan scheme. International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, 1-21.

Cowling, M., & Dvouletý, O. (2023c). Who is brave enough to start a new business during the Covid-19 pandemic? Baltic Journal of Management, 18(3), 402-419.

Cowling, M., Liu, W., Chen, Y., Calabrese, R., & Vorley, T. (2023). Financing small and innovative firms during COVID-19. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 1-28.

Cowling, M., Liu, W., & Conway, E. (2023). Ethnicity and bank lending before and during COVID-19. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior & Research, 29(3), 614-642.

Cowling, M., Nightingale, P., & Wilson, N. (2023). COVID-19 lending support and regional levelling up: evidence from UK loan guarantee schemes. Regional Studies, 1-16.

Cowling, M., & Sclip, A. (2023). Dynamic discouraged borrowers. British Journal of Management, 34(4), 1774-1790.

Cowling, M., & Wilson, N. (2023). Does inflation trigger early repayment on Covid-19 UK guaranteed loans? Applied Economics Letters, 1-5.

Cowling, M., Wilson, N., Nightingale, P., & Kacer, M. (2022). Predicting future default on the Covid-19 bounce back loan scheme: The £46.5 billion question. International Small Business Journal, 40(5), 650-666.

Cowling, M., Wilson, N., Nightingale, P., & Kacer, M. (2023). The hazards of delivering a public loan guarantee scheme: An analysis of borrower and lender characteristics. International Small Business Journal, 02662426231181455.

Cowling, M., & Yang, H. (2024). Do Loan Interest Rate Margins and Loan Fees Move in the Same Direction and are they Jointly Determined? Finance Research Letters, 104911.

Drenovak, M., Ranković, V., Urošević, B., & Jelic, R. (2022). Mean-maximum drawdown optimization of buy-and-hold portfolios using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Finance Research Letters, 46, 102328.

Fabozzi, F. J., Tunaru, D. E., & Tunaru, R. (2022). The Interconnectedness between Green Finance Indexes and Other Important Financial Variables. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 48(10), 60-77.

Goldmann, L., Crook, J., & Calabrese, R. (2024). A new ordinal mixed-data sampling model with an application to corporate credit rating levels. European Journal of Operational Research, 314(3), 1111-1126

Hasan, I., Tunaru, R., & Vioto, D. (2023). Herding behavior and systemic risk in global stock markets. Journal of Empirical Finance, 73, 107-133.

Jelic, R., Zeng, Y., & Karouzakis, N. (2023). Foreign-law premium for European high-yield corporate bonds. Finance Research Letters, 52, 103584.

Lavery, P., & Wilson, N. (2023). The Impact of Private Equity on Exporting Activity. In The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Private Equity (pp. 1-6). Cham: Springer International Publishing.

Liu, W., & Cowling, M. (2023). Conforming to Gender Stereotypes and Entrepreneurs’ Financing Outcomes. British Journal of Management, 0, 1-19

Lu, X., & Calabrese, R. (2023). The Cohort Shapley value to measure fairness in financing small and medium enterprises in the UK. Finance Research Letters, 58, 104542.

Medina-Olivares, V., Calabrese, R., Crook, J., & Lindgren, F. (2023). Joint models for longitudinal and discrete survival data in credit scoring. European Journal of Operational Research, 307(3), 1457-1473.

Medina-Olivares, V., Calabrese, R., Dong, Y., & Shi, B. (2022). Spatial dependence in microfinance credit default. International Journal of Forecasting, 38(3), 1071-1085.

Medina-Olivares, V., Lindgren, F., Calabrese, R., & Crook, J. (2023). Joint models of multivariate longitudinal outcomes and discrete survival data with INLA: An application to credit repayment behaviour. European Journal of Operational Research, 310(2), 860-873.

Meuleman, M., Wilson, N., Wright, M., & Neckebrouck, J. (2022). When the going gets tough: Private equity firms’ role as agents and the resolution of financial distress in buyouts. Journal of Small Business Management, 60(3), 513-540.

Paletta, T., & Tunaru, R. (2022). A Bayesian View on Autocallable Pricing and Risk Management. The Journal of Derivatives, 29(5),40-59. 

Quaye E, Tunaru R, Voukelatos, N (2024) MIDAS and dividend growth predictability: revisiting the excess volatility puzzle, Journal of Financial Research.

Quaye, E., & Tunaru, R. (2022). The stock implied volatility and the implied dividend volatility. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 134, 104276.

Rees-Jones, R. E., Brown, R., & Jones-Evans, D. (2023). Trigger points and high growth firms: the vital role of founder “sensing” and “seizing” capabilities. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior & Research, 30(1), 1-22.

Svetlošák, A., de Carvalho, M., & Calabrese, R. (2023). Subject-to-group statistical comparison for open banking-type data. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 74(3), 703-718.

Wai, K. W., Liston-Heyes, C., Liu, W., Liu, G., & Cowling, M. (2022). Organizational capabilities and SME exports: the moderating role of external funding intentions and managerial capacity. Small Business Economics, 58, 247-261.