Biggest Questions for Each Team at Suzuka

Alpine: Can They Unlock That Hypothetical "Pace"?

This team is insanely confusing to me. After finishing 2024 on the tear to end all tears, regularly running in the top 5 over the final four races, Alpine arrived at testing with what seemed to be a strong car. Many analysts predicted that the French outfit had the fifth or sixth fastest car and would compete for major points, with Williams tabbed as their primary rival. Well, we're two weekends in, and while Williams has scored 17 points and is tied for 4th in the championship, Alpine is the only scoreless team. While their lack of points in Australia was primarily due to driver error (Doohan's lap 1 crash, Gasly's late mistake that dropped him out of the points from P8), the blue and pink car suffered from a severe lack of pace in Shanghai. Both drivers went out in SQ1 Friday afternoon, which the team blamed on heavy traffic late in the session. It would've been a valid excuse if not for the fact that Gasly and Doohan repeated the dubious feat in Grand Prix qualifying on Saturday. I do believe that Alpine has a quick car, but can the drivers clean it up enough on both Saturday and Sunday to put it in the points? 

Aston Martin: Is Lance Stroll Establishing Himself as a Good Driver?

Let's go back to the Australian Grand Prix for a second. After the chaos of the first lap, the race had settled into flow state over the next 30 laps. Then, lap 32, right as my eyes began to feel heavy (it was well past midnight in my time zone), there was an Aston in the barriers. I sighed, wondering how in the world Lance Stroll was still in Formula One. Then, I looked back at the television, and my jaw dropped when I saw the 14 on the front of the wrecked mess of a car. Stroll had not retired; instead, he kept his nose clean for 57 laps and brought the car home in P6. It felt like a major anomaly to see someone who drove voluntarily into a gravel trap on the formation lap just last November performing so well. I figured this was a one-off thing for Stroll-everyone behind either had their race ruined by a strategy call, barely avoided a retirement, or was driving an F2 car-but when we arrived in China, the performance remained. In the sprint, Stroll held off attacks from Lando Norris for several laps en route to a P9 finish, then three disqualifications in the Grand Prix helped Stroll net a pair of points on Sunday. It's not just the races, either. Stroll has been within a tenth of Fernando Alonso in all three qualifying sessions thus far, even making it into SQ3 over his teammate in China. Those performances are a jarring reminder that Stroll has had his moments of strength in F1, including a podium in Azerbaijan 2017 and a pole position in Turkey 2020. While Stroll's reputation within the F1 community is likely irreparable, more performances like these may help keep a certain Dutchman away from Aston Martin in 2026.

Ferrari: Will They Figure Their Crap Out?

I have a lot to say about Ferrari, but I'm saving that for another article. All I know is that this team has two elite drivers and a car that's worthy of race wins and potentially a championship, and instead of frontrunning alongside McLaren, Red Bull, and Mercedes, they're farting around in the midfield, tied with Williams in the Constructor's Championship. Japan has to see a quick 180 out of the Scuderia, or else the team's streak of falling short of the title is likely to extend to 18 years.

Haas: Is There Substance in Their China Result?

Australia was not an encouraging start to the season for the American team. After having the 5th or 6th fastest car for much of 2024, the team seemed to take a major step back, finishing as the final two classified runners and missing out on points in a race where six cars retired. The sprint in China wasn't much better, as Bearman and Ocon finished P15 and P16 respectively. Then, Esteban Ocon turned some heads by qualifying P11 and making up several places off the start. Both Haas drivers finished well in the points after the two disqualifications ahead, with Ocon in P5 and Bearman in P8. Obviously, those positions are not sustainable for the team, but Ocon holding his own against Tsunoda and Antonelli shows that there's something here. The only question now is how tangible that pace is.

Kick Sauber: Will Hulk Return to Q3?

Nico Hulkenberg became a bit of a cult hero in his last two seasons for Haas due to his ability to drag two undeserving cars into Q3. Hulkenberg appeared in 19 Q3 sessions over the course of those two seasons, but in three qualifying sessions, he's been unable to crack the top ten, while losing to his rookie teammate Gabriel Bortoleto in two of those three sessions. You can argue that he's driving a tractor this year, but keep in mind that Haas placed dead last in the 2023 standings even with Hulkenberg's contributions, so I'm not entirely sure that the car is any worse than what he dealt with that year. If he's unable to find that pace over a single lap anymore, it may be time to start calling his age into question.

McLaren: Will Internal Issues Hinder Their Championship Push?

While McLaren secured the Constructor's Championship in 2024, it didn't come without turmoil down the stretch. Issues with strategy, bits of tension between the drivers here and there, and driver errors in the final rounds hurt their chances of winning, but Red Bull's pace disappeared and Ferrari made more mistakes than McLaren did, causing the trophy to stumble its way to Woking. Now, it's a new season, and McLaren once again have the fastest car. So far this year, the strategy hasn't been an issue, as the team met the minimum requirement at a rain-soaked Albert Park, and then watched their drivers steam away with a 1-2 in China. However, those other issues could still end up being quite prevalent. While the two drivers haven't come to blows on track yet, Piastri's dominant win in China made it clear that the battle at McLaren would not be a one-sided one. Piastri has made the lone major error of the season, though, as a trip through the grass while running P2 ruined an easy podium in Australia. It will certainly be interesting to see which of these issues McLaren have moved on from this year.

Jacques Villenueve: "It's like they're trying not to win"

Mercedes: Can They Maintain Their Consistency?

George Russell just had the quietest strong start to the season I've seen in a minute. While Antonelli's great results in his first two races have gotten all the publicity, Russell has secured a podium in both Grands Prix, joining Lando Norris as the only drivers to do so. While Mercedes doesn't have nearly the top-end to compete with McLaren, and likely won't be able to fight Ferrari on raw pace, they're second in the Constructor's by a solid margin thanks to consistent strong performances. Neither driver has finished lower than P7 in a race so far, and if they can maintain that, they'll be very hard to catch, but can they keep it up with faster cars looming and an 18-year-old in the second seat?

Racing Bulls: How Does Lawson Respond?

Look, we can argue all day on whether or not Lawson deserved the demotion that he took. While I personally don't believe the move was warranted, that's dust in the wind at this point. Liam has to clear whatever emotions he may be feeling right now, and go prove that he wasn't the problem. Some of that is out of his control, as Tsunoda's performance in the Red Bull car will also affect the way Lawson's stint is viewed, but Liam can't let those two races be the defining stint of his career. He's clearly a talented driver, as shown by his points finishes in three of twelve races in 2023 and '24, so I believe he can prove himself worthy of a seat in the sport long-term. The question now is has his confidence been damaged so much by his time at Red Bull that he's done for good?

Red Bull Racing: Is Tsunoda the Answer?

As a Yuki fan, the situation he's in now has me very conflicted. On one hand, this is a huge opportunity for Yuki to prove himself worthy of a top seat in a contract year. On the other, Yuki had major pace for Racing Bulls over the first two weekends, and would've finished well into the points in all three races if not for strategy blunders and a kamikaze front wing, while the Red Bull car seems like an absolute beast to drive this season, one that can only be tamed by a lion. I'm scared that a poor stint in Red Bull could spell an undeserving end to Yuki's career, but I also have faith that he's talented enough to drive the car. With his home race looming, it's all on him to prove himself worthy.

Williams: Will Carlos Sainz Make the Adjustment?

James Vowles spent much of the offseason hyping up his driver pairing as one of the best on the grid for the upcoming season. Many in the industry scoffed a bit at this, believing Sainz would run away from his new teammate, especially considering the pace Williams seemed to have found over the break. Here we are, two weekends in, and Albon is destroying Sainz while Sainz is busy destroying the car. Albon has netted all but one of Williams' 17 points thus far, with Carlos only cracking the points thanks to three DNFs ahead in the Chinese Grand Prix. I think we all forgot how much being acclimated to things matters in F1, whether it's the car, the track, an engineer, or any number of other factors. Albon has had two years as the squad's lead driver, and he clearly has a lot of pull within the organization (see: Albon using Logan Sargeant's car following a crash in Free Practice). That pull could apply to his role in car development as well, with upgrades likely molding the car to Albon's liking. To his credit, Albon has also evolved greatly since his days at Red Bull back in 2019 and '20. Sainz is a very talented driver, and competed with a top-end driver in Charles Leclerc for four years straight, so it's hard to believe that he's simply lost pace. However, he needs to get acclimated sooner rather than later, or Albon will leave him in the dust.