Here's what's at stake in the final three Grands Prix of the 2024 season.

  The Driver's Championship is over. Yes, it is technically true that Lando Norris is not mathematically eliminated from the fight. Still, if Max Verstappen finishes two or fewer points off Norris, he will clinch the championship during the Las Vegas Grand Prix. While a solid amount of F1 fans see the season as concluded when the Driver's Championship is wrapped up, I argue that there is still a lot to play for, especially in the last three seasons where there have been multiple races following the conclusion of the Driver's Championship. This season more than ever, we have several things to look forward to in the coming races.

The most obvious matter yet to be concluded is the Constructor's Championship. This is the first season since 2018 where the Driver's Championship will conclude before the Constructor's Championship, and unlike 2018, there are still three teams in contention for the title. With three Grands Prix and a sprint race to go, McLaren leads 2nd-place Ferrari by 36 points, with Red Bull another 13 points back (Red Bull likely has as much chance at the Constructor's as Norris has at the Driver's, to be fair). The recent form of McLaren, who have seen their title rivals combine for the last three race wins, has brought a championship they could've had locked up by now back into question. McLaren scored less than half of the maximum point haul in those last three races. By contrast, Ferrari scored over 80% of the max without accounting for Sainz's DNF in Brazil. If the teams continued at their respective paces over the final tripleheader, the final standings would look like this:

1. Ferrari: 675

2. McLaren: 662

If you include the initially negated points from the DNF, Ferrari's pace drops a few percentage points, which would result in this:

1. Ferrari: 662

2. McLaren: 662

Now, this situation does require a lot of things to go in certain ways to happen, notably Ferrari's ability to produce more than three good races in a row without something going horribly wrong (just look at China 2018, Russia 2019, France 2022, Canada 2024... hang on, why does Lewis want to come here so badly?). In the unlikely event that a tie occurs, both teams currently sit on five wins, so outside of potential victories in the final three races, McLaren would grab the championship thanks to having twice as many P2 finishes as the scarlet squad. No matter what happens, a title race between two teams that have seemed determined to hand the championship to their opponent sounds like a fitting conclusion to the most hectic Formula One season ever.

Another situation yet to be resolved is the battle for 6th in the Constructor's Championship. While it definitely seems less impactful than the title battle, and it is to an extent, keep in mind that every team receives a monetary award for their position in the Constructor's standings, and that award scales up based on position. In a three-way fight, the gap in award money is $17 million from 6th to 8th. For a team like Haas that have had extreme financial struggles in recent seasons (during a pointless 2021 season, Haas didn't have the means to install a single upgrade on their car across the entire season), that $17 million could be the difference between competing in the midfield and falling back into the doldrums of the series alongside Sauber. Following the Mexico City Grand Prix, it looked like it would come down to Haas and RB, with Haas clawing ahead thanks to five consecutive points finishes. After Sunday morning qualifying in Sao Paulo, RB had a stellar opportunity to give themselves an insurmountable lead heading into the final three races, with both of their drivers qualifying in the top 5 and both Haas cars out in Q1. Then, out of nowhere, Alpine dropped in a double podium, rocketing themselves from a lowly 9th all the way to 6th, with a 7 point lead on Haas with RB another 12 points back in 8th. Both Haas and RB have shown significantly more pace in most races than Alpine, and that shows in how consistent the two have been in the top 10. Haas and RB have scored in 11 and 12 weekends respectively, while Alpine have only managed to score in 9. Haas specifically have had enough pace in dry conditions recently to spar with Lewis Hamilton and Oscar Piastri, the first team to bridge the gap to the seemingly untouchable top four teams since Aston Martin back in April. However, it's not like Alpine is completely hung out to dry here. At their best, they've shown the ability to earn points consistently (i.e. Pierre Gasly's four consecutive points finishes between Monaco and Austria), and the lead they now hold is hardly insignificant. Prior to the last six races, Haas have only scored more than 7 points over a three race span once, when Hulkenberg dropped back-to-back P6 finishes in Austria and Britain. RB looks like they could be virtually out of this race, 19 points back of 6th and having a best finish of P7 this season. However, let's not forget how ridiculous this car's single lap pace has been all year. Tsunoda, Ricciardo, and Lawson have all put together banging laps to qualify in the top 5 at some point this year. If Tsunoda or Lawson can figure out how to keep that pace for a full Grand Prix, RB could really become a loud voice in this conversation come Abu Dhabi.

The final unresolved affair is rooted in the drivers leaving the sport after the conclusion of the season. In the days following the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, Gabriel Bortoleto was locked into the second Sauber seat, meaning that 19 of 20 seats for next season are confirmed. With the seats filled, we will be saying farewell to Kevin Magnussen, Franco Colapinto*, Zhou Guanyu, and Valtteri Bottas, at least for 2025. However, all four of these drivers are still searching to prove they could deserve another shot in F1 in 2026 or beyond. Bottas and Zhou, the current Sauber drivers, are both still searching for their first points of the season, with both aiming to avoid the first pointless campaign of their respective careers. Fortunately, the neon tractor that is the C44 does seem to be showing slight improvement, as Mexico City and Sao Paulo saw the first time both drivers were classified in the top 15 in back-to-back races all season. While those two are both guaranteed to be out for next year, there's a reason Franco Colapinto has an asterisk next to his name up there. The Argentinian burst onto the scene with such flair that he attracted the attention of the Red Bull organization, who control the final unconfirmed seat for 2025. If the rumors hold any merit, it means that Colapinto could have the opportunity to prove himself worthy with some points in the final three races. The big question then is who would he be replacing? The prevailing theory is of course the underperforming Sergio Perez, but perhaps that decision will be made in the coming races as well. Even if the rumors are unfounded, Colapinto always has the fallback of staying with Williams as a reserve driver, taking part in free practices and tyre tests to keep himself fresh for any potential 2026 openings. So, three of the four have some semblance of a plan moving forward, but we have no real news on Magnussen yet. He's only 32, so a return to F1 in the future is not entirely out of the question. These final three races could be very telling as to the future of KMag in not just Formula One, but in motorsport altogether.