Welcome to my web page. I am currently Chief Economist at CMA CGM
My email address is simon.ray.marchaud[at]gmail.com.
I am also on Linkedin.
Disclaimer: The views expressed on this web page are my own, and do not necessarily represent those of the institutions to which I am or I have been affiliated.
Published research papers:
Adjustment Costs and Factor Demand: New Evidence From Firms’ Real Estate (with Antonin Bergeaud) - Economic Journal, 131(633), 70-100 (2021) - [Paper] [Link to published article] [Link to working paper] - See also: Rue de la Banque (en, fr) and Les Echos (fr).
We study corporate real estate frictions and its effect on firm dynamics and labour demand. We build and simulate a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms that predicts the response of firms to a productivity shock in the presence of fixed adjustment costs on real-estate. Using a large firm-level database merged with local real estate prices, we then exploit variations in the tax on capital gain to document a causal effect of adjustment costs on firms’ labour demand and derive new results on the causes and implications of firms’ local relocation.
Cash Accumulation by Non-Financial Corporations: New Evidence of the Role of Hedging Needs and Lower Financing Costs (with Marie-Baïanne Khder) - Economics and Statistics, 520-521 (2020).
We study the sources of the recent accumulation of cash by non-financial corporations in France. We notably explore cost-based explanations by proposing a firm-specific measure of the cost of carrying cash that depends on both the firms’ short-term financing costs and the share of interest-bearing assets among liquid financial assets. Our analysis suggests that at least a quarter of the rise in the cash ratios between 2011 and 2016 is explained by the decreasing trend in the cost of carrying cash. When factoring in the additional impact of macroeconomic developments, our cost-based explanation accounts for up to 40 % of the increase in cash holdings. We also identify a novel important determinant of the level of cash holdings: firms hold cash to seize future investment opportunities when they occur, irrespective of the financing conditions that will then prevail. Our results suggest that firms’ cash hoarding to avoid foregone investment opportunities in downturns is an active economic stabilizer.
Real Estate Prices and Corporate Investment: Theory and Evidence of Heterogeneous Effects across Firms (with Denis Fougère and Rémy Lecat) - Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 51(6), 1503-1546. (2019) - [Link to published article] [Link to working paper] - See also: Rue de la Banque (en, fr), Eco Notepad (en, fr).
We investigate the effect of real estate prices on productive investment. We build a theoretical framework of firms' investment with credit rationing and real estate collateral. We show that real estate prices affect firms' borrowing capacities through two channels. An increase in real estate prices raises the value of the firms' pledgeable assets and mitigates the agency problem characterizing the creditor–entrepreneur relationship. It simultaneously cuts the expected profit due to the increase in the cost of inputs. We test our theoretical predictions using a large French database. We do find heterogeneous effects of real estate prices on productive investment depending on the position of the firms in the sectoral distributions of real estate holdings.
Land collateral and labor market dynamics in France (with Patrick Pintus and Leo Kaas). European Economic Review, 84, 202-218. (2016) - [Link to published article] [Link to working paper] - See also: Rue de la Banque (en, fr).
The value of land in the balance sheet of French firms correlates positively with their hiring and investment flows. To explore the relationship between these variables, we develop a macroeconomic model with firms that are subject to both credit and labor market frictions. The value of collateral is driven by the forward-looking dynamics of the land price, which reacts endogenously to fundamental and non-fundamental (sunspot) shocks. We calibrate the model to French data and find that land price shocks give rise to significant amplification and hump-shaped responses of investment, vacancies and unemployment that are in line with the data. We show that both the endogenous movements in the firms׳ discount factor and the sluggish response of the land price are key elements that drive the results.
Published policy papers and others:
La hausse des droits de douane va pénaliser la croissance mondiale même si cela n’est pas immédiat, Le Monde, August 2025
Chine vs Etats-Unis : un surcoût pour le derisking européen, Les Echos, January 2025
Croissance chinoise : la nouvelle stratégie de l'export industriel, Les Echos, May 2024
Le consommateur américain aux rênes de l'économie mondiale Les Echos, November 2023
Pourquoi le coût de la transition du « just-in-time » vers le « just-in-case » augmente ?, Forbes, February 2023
Le foncier au service de la recapitalisation des entreprises françaises Forbes, March 2021
Les transformations économiques liées au télétravail Bloc Note Eco de la Banque de France n°199 (version in English)
Les défis de la prolongation des dispositifs d'aide à l'investissement locatif BSI Note, December 2020
Petits commerces : « Les aides du fonds de solidarité doivent être modulées en fonction de la valeur locative des biens immobiliers professionnels » Le Monde, November 2020
Macroéconomie du Télétravail Bulletin de la Banque de France, Septembre-Octobre 2020 (version in English) - Les Echos (fr), Le Monde (fr), Le Figaro
Le lest de la dette des entreprises Risk and Opportunities, n°11 October 2020 (version in English)
Quel effet macroéconomique du PACTE ? Premiers éléments de réponse Trésor Eco, n°226 September 2018 (version in English)
Capacité d’emprunt stable et marché immobilier dynamique en 2017 Bloc Note Eco de la Banque de France n°48 (version in English)
Reprise du marché immobilier et conditions de crédits Bloc Note Eco de la Banque de France n°2 (version in English)