Weather Elements Nowcasting
In recent years, data-driven modeling approaches have gained considerable traction in various meteorological applications, particularly in the realm of weather forecasting. However, these approaches often encounter challenges when dealing with extreme weather conditions. In light of this, we propose GA-SmaAt-GNet, a novel generative adversarial architecture that makes use of two methodologies aimed at enhancing the performance of deep learning models for extreme precipitation nowcasting. Firstly, it uses a novel SmaAt-GNet built upon the successful SmaAt-UNet architecture as generator. This network incorporates precipitation masks (binarized precipitation maps) as an additional data source, leveraging valuable information for improved predictions. Additionally, GA-SmaAt-GNet utilizes an attention-augmented discriminator inspired by the well-established Pix2Pix architecture. Furthermore, we assess the performance of GA-SmaAt-GNet using real-life precipitation dataset from the Netherlands. Our experimental results reveal a notable improvement in both overall performance and for extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, we conduct uncertainty analysis on the proposed GA-SmaAt-GNet model as well as on the precipitation dataset, providing additional insights into the predictive capabilities of the model. Finally, we offer further insights into the predictions of our proposed model using Grad-CAM. This visual explanation technique generates activation heatmaps, illustrating areas of the input that are more activated for various parts of the network.
Accurate precipitation nowcasting is essential for various applications, including flood prediction, disaster management, optimizing agricultural activities, managing transportation routes and renewable energy. While several studies have addressed this challenging task from a sequence-to-sequence perspective, most of them have focused on a single area without considering the existing correlation between multiple disjoint regions. In this paper, we formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal graph sequence nowcasting problem. In particular, we introduce Graph Dual-stream Convolutional Attention Fusion, a novel approach designed to learn from historical spatiotemporal graph of precipitation maps and nowcast future time step ahead precipitation at different spatial locations. The proposed model consists of spatio-temporal convolutional attention as well as gated fusion modules which are equipped with depthwise-separable convolutional operations. This enhancement enables the model to directly process the high-dimensional spatiotemporal graph of precipitation maps and exploits higher-order correlations between the data dimensions. We evaluate our model on seven years of precipitation maps across Europe and its neighboring areas provided by Copernicus Climate Change Services. The experimental results reveal the superior performance of the proposed model compared to the other examined models. Additionally, visualizations of averaged seasonal spatial and temporal attention scores across the test set offer valuable insights into the most robust connections between diverse regions or time steps.
WF-UNet: Weather Data Fusion using 3D-UNet for Precipitation Nowcasting [Procedia Computer Science 2023, Github]
In this study, we investigate the use of a UNet core-model and its extension for precipitation nowcasting in western Europe for up to 3 hours ahead. In particular, we propose the Weather Fusion UNet (WF-UNet) model, which utilizes the Core 3D-UNet model and integrates precipitation and wind speed variables as input in the learning process and analyze its influences on the precipitation target task. We have collected six years of precipitation and wind radar images from Jan 2016 to Dec 2021 of 14 European countries, with 1-hour temporal resolution and 31 square km spatial resolution based on the ERA5 dataset, provided by Copernicus, the European Union's Earth observation programme. We compare the proposed WF-UNet model to persistence model as well as other UNet based architectures that are trained only using precipitation radar input data. The obtained results show that WF-UNet outperforms the other examined best-performing architectures by 22%, 8% and 6% lower MSE at a horizon of 1, 2 and 3 hours respectively.
The accuracy and explainability of data-driven now-casting models are of great importance in many socio-economic sectors reliant on weather-dependent decision making. This paper proposes a novel architecture called Small Attention Residual UNet (SAR-UNet) for precipitation and cloud cover nowcasting. Here, SmaAt-UNet is used as a core model and is further equipped with residual connections, parallel to the depthwise separable convolutions. The proposed SAR-UNet model is evaluated on two datasets, i.e., Dutch precipitation maps ranging from 2016 to 2019 and French cloud cover binary images from 2017 to 2018. The obtained results show that SAR-UNet outperforms other examined models in precipitation nowcasting from 30 to 180 minutes in the future as well as cloud cover nowcasting in the next 90 minutes. Furthermore, we provide additional insights on the nowcasts made by our proposed model using Grad-CAM, a visual explanation technique, which is employed on different levels of the encoder and decoder paths of the SAR-UNet model and produces heatmaps highlighting the critical regions in the input image as well as intermediate representations to the precipitation. The heatmaps generated by Grad-CAM reveal the interactions between the residual connections and the depthwise separable convolutions inside of the multiple depthwise separable blocks placed throughout the network architecture.
This paper introduces a novel data-driven predictive model based on TransUNet for precipitation nowcasting task. The TransUNet model which combines the Transformer and U-Net models has been previously successfully applied in medical segmentation tasks. Here, TransUNet is used as a core model and is further equipped with Convolutional Block Attention Modules (CBAM) and Depthwise-separable Convolution (DSC). The proposed Attention Augmented TransUNet (AA-TransUNet) model is evaluated on two distinct datasets: the Dutch precipitation map dataset and the French cloud cover dataset. The obtained results show that the proposed model outperforms other examined models on both tested datasets. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis of the proposed AA-TransUNet is provided to give additional insights on its predictions.
This paper investigates multiple hours ahead coastal sea elements forecasting in the Netherlands using UNet based architectures. The hourly satellite image data from the Copernicus observation program spanned over a period of two years has been used to train the models and make the forecasting, including seasonal forecasting. Here, we propose 3D dimension Reducer UNet (3DDR-UNet), a variation of the UNet architecture, and further extend this novel model using residual connections, parallel convolutions and asymmetric convolutions which result in introducing three additional architectures, i.e. Res-3DDR-UNet, InceptionRes-3DDR-UNet and AsymmInceptionRes-3DDR-UNet respectively. In particular, we show that the architecture equipped with parallel and asymmetric convolutions as well as skip connections outperforms the other three discussed models.
This paper presents a new model for wind speed prediction based on Graph Attention Networks (GAT). In particular, the proposed model extends GAT architecture by equipping it with a learnable adjacency matrix as well as incorporating a new attention mechanism with the aim of obtaining attention scores per weather variable. The output of the GAT based model is combined with the LSTM layer in order to exploit both the spatial and temporal characteristics of the multivariate multidimensional historical weather data. Real weather data collected from several cities in Denmark and Netherlands are used to conduct the experiments and evaluate the performance of the proposed model. We show that in comparison to previous architectures used for wind speed prediction, the proposed model is able to better learn the complex input-output relationships of the weather data. Furthermore, thanks to the learned attention weights, the model provides an additional insights on the most important weather variables and cities for the studied prediction task.
In this paper, we treat the nowcasting problem as an image-to-image translation problem using satellite imagery. We introduce Broad-UNet, a novel architecture based on the core UNet model, to efficiently address this problem. In particular, the proposed Broad-UNet is equipped with asymmetric parallel convolutions as well as Atrous Spatial Pyramid Pooling (ASPP) module. In this way, The Broad-UNet model learns more complex patterns by combining multi-scale features while using fewer parameters than the core UNet model. The proposed model is applied on two different nowcasting tasks, i.e. precipitation maps and cloud cover nowcasting. The obtained numerical results show that the introduced Broad-UNet model performs more accurate predictions compared to the other examined architectures.
Weather forecasting is dominated by numerical weather prediction that tries to model accurately the physical properties of the atmosphere. A downside of numerical weather prediction is that it is lacking the ability for short-term forecasts using the latest available information. By using a data-driven neural network approach we show that it is possible to produce an accurate precipitation nowcast. To this end, we propose SmaAt-UNet, an efficient convolutional neural networks based on the well known UNet architecture equipped with attention modules and depthwise-separable convolutions. We evaluate our approach on a real-life dataset using precipitation maps from the region of the Netherlands. The experimental results show that in terms of accuracy the proposed model is comparable to other examined models while only using a quarter of the trainable parameters.
In this paper, we introduce a new model for wind speed prediction based on spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks. Here, weather stations are treated as nodes of a graph with a learnable adjacency matrix, which determines the strength of relations between the stations based on the historical weather data. The self-loop connection is added to the learnt adjacency matrix and its strength is controlled by additional learnable parameter. Experiments performed on real datasets collected from weather stations located in Denmark and the Netherlands show that our proposed model outperforms previously developed baseline models on the referenced datasets.
Accurate wind speed forecasting is of great importance for many economic, business and management sectors. This paper introduces a new model based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for wind speed prediction tasks. In particular, we show that compared to classical CNN-based models, the proposed model is able to better characterise the spatiotemporal evolution of the wind data by learning the underlying complex input-output relationships from multiple dimensions (views) of the input data. The proposed model exploits the spatio-temporal multivariate multidimensional historical weather data for learning new representations used for wind forecasting. We conduct experiments on two real-life weather datasets. The datasets are measurements from cities in Denmark and in the Netherlands. The proposed model is compared with traditional 2- and 3-dimensional CNN models, a 2D-CNN model with an attention layer and a 2D-CNN model equipped with upscaling and depthwise separable convolutions.
Deep learning applied to weather forecasting has started gaining popularity because of the progress achieved by data-driven models. The present paper compares two different deep learning architectures to perform weather prediction on daily data gathered from 18 cities across Europe and spanned over a period of 15 years. We propose the Deep Attention Unistream Multistream (DAUM) networks that investigate different types of input representations (i.e. tensorial unistream vs. multistream ) as well as the incorpo- ration of the attention mechanism. In particular, we show that adding a self-attention block within the models increases the overall forecasting performance. Furthermore, visualization techniques such as occlusion analysis and score maximization are used to give an additional insight on the most important features and cities for predicting a particular target feature of target cities.
Reliable weather forecasting is of great importance in science, business and society. The best performing data-driven models for weather prediction tasks rely on recurrent or convolutional neural networks, where some of which incorporate attention mechanisms. In this work, we introduce a new model based on the Transformer architecture for weather forecasting. The proposed Tensorial Encoder Transformer (TENT) model is equipped with tensorial attention and thus it exploits the spatiotemporal structure of weather data by processing it in multidimensional tensorial format. We show that compared to the encoder part of the original transformer and 3D convolutional neural networks, the proposed TENT model can better model the underlying complex pattern of weather data for the studied temperature prediction task. Experiments on two real-life weather datasets are performed. The datasets consist of historical measurements from USA, Canada and European cities. The first dataset contains hourly measurements of weather attributes for 30 cities in USA and Canada from October 2012 to November 2017. The second dataset contains daily measurements of weather attributes of 18 cities across Europe from May 2005 to April 2020. We use attention scores calculated from our attention mechanism to shed light on the decision-making process of our model and have insight knowledge on the most important cities for the task.
Symbolic regression corresponds to an ensemble of techniques that allow to uncover an analytical equation from data. Through a closed form formula, these techniques provide great advantages such as potential scientific discovery of new laws, as well as explainability, feature engineering as well as fast inference. Similarly, deep learning based techniques has shown an extraordinary ability of modeling complex patterns. The present paper aims at applying a recent end-to-end symbolic regression technique, i.e. the equation learner (EQL), to get an analytical equation for wind speed forecasting. We show that it is possible to derive an analytical equation that can achieve reasonable accuracy for short term horizons predictions only using few number of features.
The accuracy and reliability of weather forecasting are of importance for many economic, business and management activities. This paper introduces novel data-driven predictive models based on deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) architecture for temperature and wind speed prediction in weather data. In particular, the proposed deep learning framework employs different upgrading versions of the convolutional neural networks i.e. 1d-, 2d-and 3d-CNN. The introduced models exploit the spatio-temporal multivariate weather data for learning shared representations using historical data and forecasting weather elements for a number of user defined weather stations simultaneously in an end-to-end fashion. The embedded feature learning component of the models as well as coupling the learned features of different input layers have shown to have a significant impact on the prediction task. The proposed models show promising results compared to the classical neural networks architecture used for modeling nonlinear systems. Two experimental setups have been considered based on a dataset collected from the Weather Underground website at six stations located in Netherlands and Belgium as well as a larger dataset with higher temporal resolution from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) at five stations located in Denmark. First, we focus on simultaneously predicting the temperature of two main stations of Amsterdam and Brussels for 1-10 days ahead. The second experiment concerns wind speed prediction at three weather stations located in Denmark for 6 and 12 hours ahead. The obtained numerical results show that learning new shared representations of the weather data by means of convolutional operations improves the prediction performance.
