Shuo Zhang

Abstract: How important are mass protest events in driving political change among citizens? In this paper I exploit a globally-known event, the 2019 Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement (ANTI-ELAB protest) in Hong Kong, and its impact on the subsequent 2019 Hong Kong District Council Election. Taking advantage of a granular dataset of organized events during the protest, I exploit spatial variation in protest intensity, as measured by the number of events, across Constituency Areas. Empirical results show that in Constituency Areas with higher protest intensity, there were larger increases in voter turnout in the 2019 District Council Election compared to 2015. The effect is primarily driven by local events, suggesting that proximate mobilization and interpersonal interactions play a crucial role in shaping political engagement. To strengthen causal interpretation, I employ a set of public transportation accessibility measures as instrumental variables. Additional analyses reveal that protest intensity also affected people's political stances, leading to a pronounced decline in neutral positions and an overall shift toward the Pro-democracy camp. These findings contribute to the emerging literature on the political consequences of protest and offer new insights into studying within-city-level social unrest.

Abstract: People's Liberation Army (PLA) related business was rampant in China in the 1980s and 1990s, and they significantly disrupted the local economy. However, due to limited data about PLAs, this issue is rarely investigated and thus the negative impact is hardly measured. In this paper we introduce a new proxy for measuring the approximate level of PLA related business in a specific city, PLA hospital score, to identify cities that are more affected by PLA related business closure. We then employ a difference-in-differences (DID) framework and show that PLA related business closure does bring positive effects to China's local economy, about a 2% increase in GDP growth per year. We also find that this effect is more significant in cities with median economic size and cities that rely more on secondary and tertiary sectors. We finally provide a possible channel of this effect, which mainly works through providing a more efficient and competitive market to local private firms as well as an investment-friendly environment that attracts foreign investments.

Abstract: This paper estimates the impacts of automation and Chinese import penetration on U.S. political outcomes. Utilizing rich county-level geographic variation, we simultaneously study how both shocks affect the Republican vote share in the House and Presidential elections from 2000 to 2016. Results suggest that greater exposure to automation consistently boosted Republican vote share, whereas import penetration from China initially benefited the Democratic Party in these elections but, post-2012, its influence dissipated, turning statistically insignificant and slightly positive for Republicans in recent years. By the 2016 House elections, our 2SLS estimates indicate that moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile in exposure to robotics increased the Republican vote share by 0.63 percentage points. Our event study analysis shows that these results are not driven by pre-existing trends in voting behaviors.

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of cross-border consumption on Hong Kong's food industry that faces a comparative disadvantage. Using restaurant registration data, we exploit the sudden border reopening after COVID-19 as a natural experiment. Empirical results show that neighborhoods closer to the border experienced significantly more restaurant exits after the border reopening. The impact persists even after accounting for a surge in external demands from Mainland Chinese visitors to Hong Kong. The findings highlight the distributional effects of cross-border consumption: while the overall society benefits from deeper regional integration, policymakers should also pay attention to industries bearing disproportionate costs.

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