14 Thesis Supervised
Master's Thesis Co-Supervised
BISP and Decision-Making Capacity of Rural Women: A Cross-Provincial Comparison in Pakistan
Thesis Defended: 2024
This study addresses the critical gap in knowledge regarding the impact of the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) on women's empowerment in Pakistan. BISP, a prominent social safety net initiative, aims to alleviate poverty and enhance the well-being of vulnerable households. However, despite its significant role, there is limited understanding of how BISP contributes to women's empowerment, specifically in terms of decision-making capacity. The study seeks to fill this gap by conducting a comprehensive investigation into women's decision-making capacity under BISP, focusing on rural areas where gender disparities often persist. Impact evaluation is done through Propensity Score Matching using PSLM/HIES survey data (2018-2019). The findings are expected to contribute valuable insights to the broader discourse on social welfare programs and women's decision-making power, with implications for policy formulation and program design in Pakistan and other developing regions facing similar challenges. Despite the negative criticism of the government cash transfer program, the BISP has a positive impact on women's decision-making capacity in rural areas of Punjab, Sindh, and even KPK. However, the results for Baluchistan remain ambiguous.
Impact of Vocational Training on Socioeconomic Status of Households: A Case Study of Development Action for Mobilization and Emancipation (DAMEN)
Thesis Defended: 2019
To improve the socioeconomic status of households, especially, in the rural areas of Punjab in Pakistan, there have been numerous attempts by various non-profit organizations. The outreach of these programs has been restricted to some of the renowned locations. However, Damen has intervened by introducing vocational training in 2015 to develop skill sets in women residing in the remote areas of Lahore, Kasur and Sheikhupura (in Punjab, Pakistan). This study is an attempt to examine the impact of this vocational training for women on the socio-economic status of their households. For in-depth insights, the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) has been computed and used as an impact evaluation tool. Results of the study show that the incidence of multidimensional poverty is 36.6% for the sample of households from which the females have undergone vocational training and 75.7% for other nearest-neighbour households without training. We have also explored the impact evaluation through the Propensity Scoring Method (PSM). According to PSM, the results indicate a decline of 25% in multidimensional poverty for the households whose women participated in the vocational training programs. Unlike micro-credit programmes, women are most likely to increase the socioeconomic status of the household by acquiring proper vocational training.
Baccalaureate Thesis Supervised
Coordination between Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Pakistan
Thesis Defended: 2025
The study critically examines the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies in Pakistan from 1977 to 2023, with particular emphasis on the institutional impact of the Monetary and Fiscal Policies Coordination Board (MFPCB) established in 1994. Using a novel empirical framework based on macroeconomic environment and policy response matrices, the study constructs a coordination index to evaluate the alignment of policy stances with prevailing economic conditions. Granger causality tests confirm the theoretical premise that fiscal policy primarily influences growth, while monetary policy predominantly affects inflation reinforcing the case for deliberate, complementary action. The findings reveal that coordinated policy responses occurred in only 32% of the period under review, indicating that fiscal and monetary authorities largely operated in isolation. Although the introduction of the MFPCB led to a modest improvement in coordination (from 0.23 pre-1994 to 0.36 post-1994), this shift remains insufficient to establish systemic coherence. The analysis further shows that coordination was more frequent under military-led regimes and technocratic central bank leadership, particularly during Dr. Ishrat Hussain’s tenure as SBP Governor, underscoring the role of political structure and institutional leadership in enabling policy synergy. The study concludes that while institutional mechanisms for coordination exist, their effectiveness is contingent upon sustained policy dialogue, shared macroeconomic objectives, and structural reforms that move beyond formality to foster genuine cooperation. Only under such conditions can Pakistan achieve coherent macroeconomic governance capable of delivering both stability and sustained growth.
Impact of Public Spending on Multi-Dimensional Poverty: A District Level Analysis of Punjab
Thesis Defended: 2025
This study analyzes the impact of public spending on multidimensional poverty at the district level in Punjab, Pakistan. Using micro-level household data from the 2018-2019 Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) Survey, the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) has been measured and linked with district-level expenditure data from 2017-2018. The study assesses the effect of public investment on multidimensional poverty which covers three key dimensions: education, health, and living standards of households. An analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression showcases public spending adversely affects poverty reduction yet produces findings that remain statistically insignificant thus highlighting inefficiencies and potential misallocations in resource utilization. Moreover, this study demonstrates regional disparities as southern districts showcase substantially higher MPI scores compared to their northern counterparts which means targeted interventions become essential. Through the study of multidimensional poverty patterns in Punjab it can be perceived as to why the government needs to enhance public financial strategies and implementation of precise policies and nuanced methods to conquer structural imbalances. The reported evidence delivers valuable guidance so policymakers can create programs that allocate resources effectively alongside impactful poverty reduction measures.
Youth’s Perception on Future Economic Prospects in the Current State of Pakistan: A Descriptive Study
Thesis Defended: 2025
This study aims to understand the perceptions of youth regarding their future economic prospects in the current economic environment of Pakistan. Through the analysis of data from 241 respondents from major universities of Punjab, the study focuses on four main indicators, optimism, confidence, supportiveness and preparedness, and their effect on brain drain. This study illuminates Pakistani youth’s aspirations with perceived systemic realities and whether pessimism, institutional distrust, and migration intentions are individual grievances or symptoms of structural failures. Addressing these issues requires reimagining education, governance, and economic policies to transform Pakistan’s youth bulge from a demographic challenge into a catalytic force for sustainable development. Without urgent reforms, the cycle of disengagement and brain drain will persist, perpetuating inequalities and stifling national progress.
Exploring the Monetary Drivers of Inflation in Pakistan
Thesis Defended: 2024
The study provides a comprehensive and thorough analysis of the monetary factors that drive inflation in Pakistan. The study looks at the direct and indirect impacts of several monetary factors on inflation as well as the major monetary transmission channel. It highlights how much inflation affects Pakistan's economy and how important it is to understand its many sources. The study addresses a significant research gap by combining several financial aspects into a coherent model. Previous research on the link between money supply, interest rates, and inflation is thoroughly studied alongside current ideas on inflation, such as demand-pull and cost-push theories. The study's approach, which is based on structural equation modelling (SEM), is a technique that captures the intricate relationships between monetary aspects by using several variables in a single model. The results provide a thorough knowledge of how monetary policy, external shocks, and structural flaws impact inflation in Pakistan by identifying important elements. To achieve long-term price stability, the research stressed the significance of a balanced approach to monetary policy that takes supply-side and demand-side issues into account. It is advised that the State Bank of Pakistan take practical steps, such as controlling interest rates and the money supply. Despite its broad methodology, the study is restricted by the availability and quality of historical data. Overall, this work adds considerably to the current body of knowledge and provides practical insights for policymakers seeking to attain long-term economic stability.
Manufacturing-sector Performance Under Monetary Policy Influence in Pakistan
Thesis Defended: 2024
This paper aims to examine the influence of Monetary Policy on manufacturing sector performance in Pakistan, by focusing on the impacts of two variables of monetary policy. Money Supply and Lending Interest Rate. For estimation both short-run and long-run impacts are determined by using the ARDL model and the main controlling variables for the model are inflation rate, labour force, gross fixed capital formation, credit to the private sector, exchange rate, FDI, oil price and trade openness all these are analysed. The outcome of this study reveals a significant negative relationship between money supply and manufacturing value added in both the short and long run, demonstrating that excessive liquidity can exert inflationary pressures and affect manufacturing output adversely. On the other hand, a statistically insignificant influence of lending interest rate on manufacturing value added is attained, suggesting that its influence on the manufacturing sector is subject to delayed and less pronounced. Control variable like inflation, labour force, and gross fixed capital formation are found to play significant roles in defining manufacturing output, with inflation having a negative impact and with both labour force and gross fixed capital formation have a positive contribution. The long-run relationship between monetary policy and manufacturing value added is confirmed using the ARDL bound test. These outcomes highlight the need for careful monetary policy management to avoid adverse effects on the manufacturing sector and emphasize the importance of considering long-run dynamics in policy formulation.
Socioeconomic Determinants of Out-of-School and Pioneer Children in Pakistan
Thesis Defended: 2024
This study focuses on the socioeconomic aspects of children being out of school by examining the factors contributing to this issue at the child, household, and locality levels. Previous studies frequently concentrate on single challenges for education, ignoring the interdependence of these elements and their collective influence. In order to address this gap, we identify and measure the major factors that influence students' decision to be out of school by using data from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) survey and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM). Furthermore, the research explores the concept of the pioneer child - a young person who, despite major challenges, continues their education and acts as a role model for those experiencing similar circumstances. Our goal for this analysis is to give policymakers a comprehensive understanding of the variables affecting educational outcomes so they may design focused initiatives. To show the demographics of the out-of-school and pioneer children, graphs and visualizations are presented. Lastly, addressing educational gaps early, it is anticipated that the findings would provide insightful information for developing policies that guarantee more children stay in school and succeed.
The Impact of Human and Social Capital on Human Well-being in Pakistan
Thesis Defended: 2024
This study employs the world value survey data for Pakistan to show the effect of Human and Social Capital on Human Well-being in Pakistan. The World Value Survey's seventh wave, from 2017 to 2020, is being used. The sample size is roughly 1995 and several economic, demographic and social factors are taken into consideration. The estimation was done using the PLS (Partial Least Squares) approach. The well-being of individuals is affected by several factors. Earlier studies show that the well-being of an individual is linked with social and human capital. The PLS’s model supports the results of earlier studies that well-being is linked with human and social capital. Earlier studies see the effect of social or human capital separately whereas this study sees the interconnected effect of social and human capital on human well-being in Pakistan.
The Effectiveness of Foreign Aid on Poverty Reduction: Exploring the Role of Institutional Quality and Political Stability
Thesis Defended: 2023
The effectiveness of foreign aid in terms of its socioeconomic valuation has been touched on with the underlying functionality of institutional quality as a significant determinant of the aid-development nexus. This research builds on the growing literary body on the consequences of international aid through the in-depth examination of analysis of nine countries belonging to all four categories of the Official Development Assistance recipient categories listed by OECD. Previous studies predominantly focus on the effects of aid’s relationship with economic progress. However, many contradicting works have rendered existing literature as dominantly vague and inconclusive. Therefore, this study has been channelled to study the precise impact of aid on human development alleviation and anti-poverty welfare purposes to gauge more accuracy in results and a sound basis for future planning involving the timeline of 1990 to 2021. To fortify the aid-development linkage, this study conceptualizes the theoretical perspectives with empirical results to elicit maximum usable deductions to sketch an unbiased picture of aid productivity. By drawing on data from reliable sources, this research develops a smooth understanding of the topic. In the major exploration of aid’s impact using the technique of GLS estimation, this study contributes to developing that aid has a negatively degrading effect on human development levels and more interestingly, the transmission of aid via institutional quality also displays a considerably adverse picture. This presents stern policy implications for all the nine economies under observation here, providing insights into the repressive penalties of aid.
The Impact of Immigration on the Native Labor Market: A Cross-Country Analysis
Thesis Defended: 2022
This study aims to investigate the impact of international immigration on the native labour market of host countries. With the growing number of cross-border movements, the relationship between immigration and unemployment in the domestic labour market has become a concern for economists and policymakers. This study utilizes the comprehensive dataset of the years spanning from 2000 to 2019 and employs Panel Regression Analysis to analyze the intricate dynamics of international migration and unemployment of native-born workers of 16 selected OECD countries. The results have disclosed a significant negative relationship between the net migration rate and unemployment rate of domestic labourers. Furthermore, it was concluded that an increase in GDP, Wages and Government Expenditure on Education will significantly reduce the unemployment rate as well. However, the positive relationship of Gross National Expenditure with the Unemployment rate of natives is found to be insignificant.
Asymmetric Transmission of Oil Prices on Inflation: Evidence from BRICS and Pakistan
Thesis Defended: 2022
This study investigates the asymmetric transmission of oil price change on inflation in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and Pakistan. The dataset was collected on an annual basis from 1987 to 2021. Two different types of oil prices were used global oil prices and country oil prices. Global oil prices were the average of Brent oil (Europe Brent Spot Price FOB) and WTI oil (WTI Spot Price FOB). Country Oil prices were achieved by taking the product of the global oil prices and exchange rate of respective countries. The dynamic NARDL model was employed to estimate the long-term and short-term asymmetric impact of oil prices on inflation. To calculate the asymmetry, the oil prices were decomposed into negative and positive oil price shocks. The results revealed that both positive and negative oil price shocks positively impact inflation in the long term, but it varied across models. However, the impact of negative oil price shocks was more prominent. The results were more significant when global oil prices were used in the model. In order to make this study more versatile, the impact of oil prices was also estimated on inflation in oil-importing countries. The results were similar i.e., both positive and negative oil prices encouraged inflation, but the relationship was stronger in comparison to the results when both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries were included. The short-term impact of oil prices on inflation was found to be insignificant indicating asymmetric price transmission. This study also found that trade openness and exchange rate had a negative impact on inflation and that there existed a positive relationship between industrial production and inflation.
Constructing Women Empowerment Index (WEI) using Alkire-Foster Methodology-Identifying Multiple Dimensions of Empowerment
Thesis Defended: 2020
The key objective of this study is to construct the Women Empowerment Index using the Alkire-Foster methodology. This methodology has been recently used to construct a profound indicator of poverty, the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). The data used is from PSLM for 2018-19 for females to identify the major areas from where the empowerment of women can be measured. The questionnaire and coding of PSLM were thoroughly studied, with reference to the previous literature, to come up with the closest relevant variables that can be used as indicators of women's empowerment. Further, the alike indicators were put under a single domain to make it more generalized. The cutoffs were decided considering various laws and legislatures of Pakistan, and existing literature on women empowerment, its dimension and methods to measure it. The WEI gives the precise values of deprivation in various indicators and domains. Moreover, we have decomposed our analysis on the provincial level in order to gain more precise values of deprivation and to be able to recommend effective policies that can tackle the problems at the very root level.