Research

Publications:

[2022] “Research priorities for measuring biologic age: summary and future directions from the Research Centers Collaborative Network Workshop”, GeroScience, 1-11 (Brinkley et al.) [Link]

[2021] “Consequences of Teenage Childbearing on child Health”, Economics and Human Biology, 42 (with Devon Gorry) [Link]


Working Papers:

Abstract: A rich literature has documented differences in maternal outcomes between early (teenage) and later childbearing. However, evidence on age-specific effects of childbearing on maternal outcomes is limited. In this paper, we use miscarriage as a natural experiment to compare the health and economic outcomes of over 150,000 women who either miscarried or gave birth between the ages of 13-40 in the UK Biobank. Our estimates suggest that delaying birth during the earlier ages is associated with improved metabolic syndrome, chronic physical conditions, cognition, and income at older ages. However, waiting to give birth may have negative impacts on depressive symptoms for those who conceive and miscarry in their mid-twenties. Our findings are robust to a number of sensitivity checks and highlight the importance of exploring the mechanisms linking timing of first birth to life course health and socioeconomic outcomes.


Abstract: In this study, we introduce PIGEON—a novel statistical framework for quantifying and estimating polygenic gene-environment interaction (GxE) using a variance component analytical approach. Based on PIGEON, we outline the main objectives in GxE studies, demonstrate the flaws in existing GxE approaches, and introduce an innovative estimation procedure which only requires summary statistics as input. We demonstrate the statistical superiority of PIGEON through extensive theoretical and empirical analyses and showcase its performance in multiple analytic settings, including a quasi-experimental GxE study of health outcomes, gene-by-sex interaction for 530 traits, and gene-by-treatment interaction in a randomized clinical trial. Our results show that PIGEON provides an innovative solution to many long-standing challenges in GxE inference and may fundamentally reshape analytical strategies in future GxE studies. 


Abstract: A large literature examines the relationship between Attention Deficit / Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and human capital outcomes among children and young adults. However, much less is known about the economic consequences of ADHD among prime age and older adults, since these cohorts were far less likely to be screened for or diagnosed with ADHD. In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the likelihood of ADHD among older individuals in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). A small subsample in the HRS is asked diagnostic questions related to ADHD. We use a series of machine learning models to predict ADHD status in this subsample as a function of observables available for tens of thousands more HRS respondents. Our main results indicate that an 11 percentage point increase in ADHD likelihood (average difference between those meeting vs. failing to meet diagnostic criteria) is associated with a 6.8 percentage point lower probability of working for pay, an 12 percent reduction in earnings conditional on working, and an 11 percent reduction in household wealth at retirement. Linking the HRS data with the Social Security Administration (SSA) records, we show substantial differences in the earnings trajectories of low vs. high ADHD-risk adults. These differences emerge in the 30s and grow over the life-cycle. The present discounted value of average earnings differences between these groups over the ages 22-65 is substantial (approximately $180,000). These findings underscore the importance of diagnosing ADHD among the current prime-age and elderly cohorts.


Abstract: A rich literature has documented the detrimental effects of negative shocks to one’s own health on several outcomes. However, the body of knowledge on the spillover effects of children’s health shocks within families is limited. Children’s chronic health conditions can leave a lasting impact on the career, family structure, and health of their mothers. Combining data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and NLSY79 Children and Young Adults, I estimate event-study models comparing mothers of healthy children to mothers who have children with some health conditions up to ten years after childbirth. I find that having a child with chronic conditions on average decreases mother’s labor market participation, hours worked, and earnings over a period of ten years after childbirth. The difference in outcomes is more prominent in the short run and seems to be driven by mother’s time investment in the child, measured through a home environment index. I further find that mothers with children suffering from mental health conditions are more likely to face a marriage dissolution. My findings suggest worse maternal well-being during mid-life for the affected mothers as measured by the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression score, a proxy for mental health and a score for physical health. These results uncover important long-term, short-term, and intergenerational effects of health shocks within families and have relevance with respect to policies aiming at improving maternal wellbeing.


Abstract: We examine whether genome-wide summary measures of genetic risk known as polygenic indices (PGIs) provide new insights into the efficacy of the Lung Health Study (LHS)–a large, randomized control trial (RCT) that evaluated the effect of a smoking cessation intervention program on cessation maintenance and lung function. Results indicate that the intervention was less successful for participants with higher PGIs for smoking addiction and intensity. Given the increasing availability and affordability of genomic data, we argue that in the context of RCTs, PGIs can further our understanding of heterogenous treatment effects and the mechanisms that may be driving them.


Research in Progress: