Research
Research
Working Papers
We study the effect of cash transfers on health disparities using data from the Department of Veteran Affairs’ Disability Compensation program, one of the nation’s largest cash transfer programs. Our instrumental variables strategy analyzes disability claims and medical records for over 800,000 veterans, leveraging the quasi-random assignment of these claims to two agents: caseworkers and physicians. Cash transfers reduce mortality on average, but there is considerable heterogeneity. Using only the caseworker instrument, we find that receiving $300 per month reduces 5-year mortality by 1.0 pp. Conversely, the physician instrument recovers a significantly smaller effect of 0.4 pp. We reconcile this discrepancy with a reverse selection-on-gains model, in which caseworkers and physicians differentially target cash transfers, but sicker veterans gain the least from transfers. Our findings help explain disparate findings in the literature and provide policy implications for targeting transfers to narrow disability-related health disparities.
Why Doesn’t Clinical Efficacy Translate into Real-World Effectiveness? Evidence from PrEP
(with David Beheshti and Nir Eilam)
Many medical innovations succeed in clinical trials but fail to make an impact outside controlled settings. This paper investigates why the introduction of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), whose trials demonstrate near-perfect efficacy in preventing HIV, coincided with a plateau in infections that halted decades of progress. Using epidemiological, pharmaceutical, and Census data, we estimate PrEP’s real-world effectiveness and investigate why the innovation failed to reduce population-level transmission. To address selection bias in uptake, we exploit two facts: PrEP is used almost exclusively by men who have sex with men, and regional concentrations of male same-sex partnerships vary widely. Counties with higher male same-sex partnership rates experienced greater PrEP uptake, which in turn lowered transmission rates. Our results imply that 76 additional users avert one new HIV diagnosis. However, while PrEP uptake is similar between Black and White men, eightfold higher incidence among Black men indicates substantial underutilization relative to need. Furthermore, PrEP’s introduction was associated with increased risky sexual behavior among both users and non-users.
Tracking allows instruction to be tailored to students’ abilities but may divert resources from lower-performing students, widening achievement gaps. We test these hypotheses by examining the most widespread tracking program in the U.S.: Advanced Placement. Leveraging its expansion in Texas following a statewide incentive policy and linking administrative microdata to long-run outcomes, we find that AP adoption increased college completion by 1.2 pp and adult earnings by 3.3%. Gains were largest for high-performing students, but lower-performing students also saw meaningful relative improvements. Our findings reject that tracking harms secondary, postsecondary, or labor-market outcomes for any academic, racial, or socioeconomic group.
Publications
Vaccine Incentives Harm Intrinsic Motivation: Evidence From a Priming Experiment
(Health Economics, 2025)
Trends in Colon Cancer Colectomy Volume and Inpatient Costs, 2018-2023: A Medicare Analysis
(Journal of Surgical Research, 2025)
Inappropriate Prescribing to Older Patients by Nurse Practitioners and Primary Care Physicians
(Annals of Internal Medicine, 2023)
Press: US News & World Report, Medscape, Cato Institute, Becker's Healthcare, Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Accuracy of Valuations of Surgical Procedures in the Medicare Fee Schedule
(New England Journal of Medicine, 2019)
Understanding the Gap Between Efficacy in Randomized Controlled Trials and Effectiveness in Real-World Use of GLP-1RA and DPP4 Therapies in Patients With Type II Diabetes
(Diabetes Care, 2017)
Achievement of Glycated Hemoglobin Goals in the US Remains Unchanged Through 2014
(Diabetes Therapy, 2017)
Research in Progress
Washed Away: Lasting Effects of the Ohio Flood of 1913
(with Martha Bailey and Alexa Prettyman)
Health Impacts of Long-Run Exposure to Pollution in Adulthood and Later Life: Evidence from the U.S. Army
(with Joshua Graff Zivin, Timothy Justicz, Adriana Lleras-Muney, and Matthew Neidell)