Changes in the Hedonic Valuation of Amenities and Characteristics in Post-pandemic Residential Property Market, accepted at CESifo Working Paper No. 11996, [PDF]
This study examines whether the COVID-19 pandemic led to lasting shifts in residential housing valuation in the UK, focusing on Greater London and seven major cities. The following questions are addressed: a) Was this change in residential valuations temporary, or is it likely to be permanent? b) For what other characteristics do we see a fundamental shift in valuation by home buyers? c) Did seven other cities follow a consistent change with Greater London? Using transactions data for more than 1.5 million house sales from 2017 to 2023, and detailed neighborhood information, we find a persistent flattening of the CBD-distance price gradient: by 7.7% (from -0.683 to -0.63) in Greater London and 9.6% (from -0.135 to -0.122) in major UK cities. An event study confirms the change is stable over time. Hedonic price models show that this effect holds after controlling for amenities, with post-pandemic buyers placing greater emphasis on school quality and property type. Notably, demand shifts toward large homes, with premiums rising for terraced, detached, and semi-detached houses, and falling for apartments (flats). Effects of crime and density vary by region, showing stronger negative valuation in London and weaker or even positive effects elsewhere.
Modelling Population Distribution Inequality: A Gini-Based Extension of the Mono-centric City Model, with Jesse A Matheson and Enrico Vanino
This paper analyses how the population is distributed within cities and how this distribution varies with distance to the centre. Using 1-km satellite data aggregated to the township level for multiple cities and years, we construct two complementary measures: (i) population density, and (ii) a within-city Gini index that compares each cell’s share of land with its share of population. From the empirical results, we found density declines monotonically with distance and does so most steeply from the core to the inner suburbs, with a flatter slope toward the fringe. Second, the population–land Gini rises with distance, indicating increasing spatial mismatch, with the rise tapering at the outer ring. Heterogeneity by city size is pronounced: the density gradient is steepest in metropolitan areas and flattest in small cities; the positive Gini–distance relationship is largely a mega-city phenomenon. Motivated by these facts, we develop a mono-centric equilibrium framework that yields a closed-form density gradient and an associated expression for the Gini index. The model maps commuting costs, housing costs, and land-use elasticity into the observed gradients and provides comparative statics that align with the cross-city evidence.
Did Place-based Revitalization Reshape Local Business? Evidence from Business Improvement Districts in Greater London, with Jesse A Matheson and Enrico Vanino
This paper identifies the causal impact of Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) on local commercial businesses in Greater London from 2014 to 2025. Using a panel data set of businesses observed quarterly at a granular geographic level, this paper measures the average treatment effects on business counts and business exits after the establishment of BIDs, and also characterizes dynamic event study trends through propensity score matching and staggered difference-in-differences strategy. BIDs provide investment in cleanliness, safety, and streetscapes. This study finds that the establishment of BIDs promoted the expansion of catering, pubs, and lifestyle services, while shrinking traditional department stores and beauty businesses. The event study shows that the number of business exits in pubs increased, while the number of business exits in beauty and retail (especially small retail) decreased. This restructuring appears to favour in-person experiential hospitality businesses while potentially displacing service providers and traditional retail businesses.