The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inflation Expectations (11/2025)
IMF working paper 2025, 231
with Francisco Arizala, Santiago Bazdresch, and Tomohide Mineyama.  

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of fiscal policy on inflation expectations across a large sample of advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMs). We identify episodes of significant fiscal adjustment using both quantitative thresholds and a narrative approach and find that such episodes are associated with statistically significant changes in inflation expectations in EMs while the responses are muted in AEs. We also document that the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation expectations is more pronounced in high-inflation environments and under weak fiscal positions. Additionally, we explore how market perceptions of sovereign risk, as well as monetary and exchange rate frameworks, influence the transmission of fiscal policy to inflation expectations. Our empirical results suggest that it is especially important for EMs to implement prudent fiscal policy as it may help reduce inflationary pressures and inflation expectations.

Household Savings in Selected Southern European Countries Evidence from Cross-Country Micro-Level Data (07/2023)
IMF working paper 2023, 150
with Kamil Dybczak, Mariusz Jarmuzek, Ruifeng Zhang, and Yipei Zhang.  

Abstract: The paper looks into the puzzle of low household savings in three Southern European (SE3) countries – Cyprus, Greece, and Portugal. Building on the household saving drivers literature, we employ cross-country micro-level data and investigate the key saving patterns, examining their heterogeneity across households in SE3 countries relative to the EA average. The results confirm the prominent role of income, along with interest rate, inflation, fiscal balance, and debt in shaping household savings in SE3 countries. Quantile regressions employed to analyze saving behavior across the distribution of households suggest that households with lower savings tend to see their savings dip (or dissavings rise) more-than-proportionately with shocks to income, interest rate, inflation, and government balance. Our policy simulations across the distribution of households suggest that targeted rather than universal policy intervention could improve household savings, especially of the most vulnerable ones.

Greece's Investment Gap (01/2022)
IMF working paper 2022, 013
with María Méndez, and Cindy Xu.  

Abstract: Greece’s investment rate plunged following the Sovereign Debt Crisis (SDC) and remained one of the lowest in the world in 2019. This paper explores recent investment dynamics and compares them against estimated benchmarks. Our results suggest that Greece has been under-investing since the SDC, with private investment notably lagging behind. The estimated investment gap ranges from 1.6–8 percent of GDP in 2019. Structural impediments have constrained corporate investment, while business cycle and balance sheet developments have held back household investment. Structural reforms are recommended to remove bottlenecks to corporate investment, improve efficiency of public investment, and boost household investment.