Research
Work in Progress
Why Did the Unemployment Rate Rise So Little at the end of WWII? (with Valerie Ramey and Tal Roded), being prepared for the NBER conference on "The Economic Impacts of World War II"
COVID-19 Economic Relief and Labor Force Participation (with Isabel Cairo and Camilo Morales-Jimenez)
Refereed Publications and Accepted Papers
Aging and the Real Interest Rate in Japan: A Labor Market Channel (with Ippei Fujiwara), April 2023, Accepted at the Journal of the Japanese and International Economies
Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation (with Giuseppe Moscarini and Fabien-Postel Vinay), 2023, Accepted at the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor Supply Elasticities and Wage Rigidity (with Isabel Cairo and Camilo Morales-Jimenez), Review of Economic Dynamics, 43, 2022, pp 197-216
Declining Labor Turnover and Turbulence, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2018, 99, pp 1-19
Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help Forecast Inflation? (with Mike Dotsey and Tom Stark), International Journal of Central Banking , 2018, 14(4), pp 43-92
Recall and Unemployment (with Giuseppe Moscarini), American Economic Review, 2017, 107(12), pp 3875-3916. American Economic Association Research Highlight: "Back to Work"
Worker Flows and Job Flows: A Quantitative Investigation (with Makoto Nakajima), Review of Economic Dynamics, 2016, 22, pp 1-20
Exogenous versus Endogenous Separation (with Garey Ramey), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012, 4(4), pp 68-93
Private Equity Premium and Aggregate Uncertainty in a Model of Uninsurable Investment Risk (with Francisco Covas), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Contributions), 2011, 11(1), Article 20
Procyclicality of Capital Requirements in a General Equilibrium Model of Liquidity Dependence (with Francisco Covas), International Journal of Central Banking, 2010, 6(4), pp 137-173
Dynamics of Worker Flows and Vacancies: Evidence from the Sign Restriction Approach, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2011, 26 (1), pp 89-121
The Cyclicality of Separation and Job Finding Rates (with Garey Ramey), International Economic Review, 2009, 50(2), pp 415-430
Job Matching and Propagation (with Garey Ramey), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2007, 31(11), pp 3671-3698
Other Publications
Labor Market Recovery During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Economic Insights, 2nd Quarter 2022
Ageing and the Real Interest Rate in Japan (with Ippei Fujiwara), VoxEU, October 14, 2021
Reopening the Economy: What Are the Risks, and What Have States Done? (with Enghin Atalay, Sreyas Mahadevan, Ryan Michaels, and Tal Roded), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Research Brief, July 2020
The Labour Market Policy Response to COVID-19 Must Leverage the Power of Age (with Giuseppe Moscarini and Fabien Postel-Vinay), VoxEU, May 15, 2020
The Labour Market Policy Response to COVID-19 Must Save Aggregate Matching Capital (with Giuseppe Moscarini and Fabien Postel-Vinay), VoxEU, March 30, 2020
What Can Employers Do to Mitigate Hiring Difficulties? Evidence from Online Job Ads (with Cole Dreier and Ryotaro Tashiro), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Growth & Mobility Project Special Report, February 2020
Where Is the Phillips Curve? Economic Insights, Third Quarter 2019
Where Is Everybody? The Shrinking Labor Force Participation Rate (with Michael Dotsey and Leena Rudanko), Economic Insights, Fourth Quarter 2017
All Layoffs Are Not Created Equal, Economic Insights, 3rd Quarter 2016.
On the Causes of Declines in the Labor Force Participation Rate, Research Rap Special Report, February 2014
Documentation; Stata Codes; Data are updated quarterly and available in the Data page
A Closer Look at the German Labor Market ‘Miracle’ (with Hermann Gertner), Business Review, 4th Quarter 2014
Labor Market Anxiety and the Downward Trend in the Separation Rate, Business Review, 4th Quarter 2012
Economic Effects of the Unemployment Insurance Benefit, Business Review, 4th Quarter 2010
Earnings Losses of Job Losers During the 2001 Economic Downturn (with Vilas Rao), Business Review, 4th Quarter 2009
Creative Destruction and Aggregate Productivity Growth, Business Review, 3rd Quarter 2008
What Do Worker Flows Tell Us About Cyclical Fluctuations in Employment? Business Review, 2nd Quarter 2007
In Japanese
パンデミック下の米国労働市場の調整について、日本労働研究雑誌、2022年1月号 (No. 738), PP 56-69.