Research

“Why isn’t the whole world developed?” is a vital question posed by Richard A. Easterlin, in regard to the divergent patterns of growth and development across nations. While addressing the causes of economic underdevelopment economists and policymakers have acknowledged the concept of ‘path dependency theory’ which signifies that “history and institutions matters”. My research contributes to this consensus with reference to the history of India. The origins of India’s economic development dates back to the British colonial era whose institutions and policies have played an influential role in shaping the Indian economy. In my dissertation, I study three significant episodes of Indian economic history during the British colonial rule that are pivotal in determining the growth trajectory of the economy. These studies have necessitated collection of archived data related to British India, digitizing, and compiling them. A happy byproduct of this intense data collection effort is that it enables me to address micro-level questions covering various aspects of Colonial India. 

 Abstract: I study the impact of a key industrial policy during the interwar period on the long-run industrial development of India. British colonial policy of free trade and laissez-faire approach is one of the factors blamed for sluggish industrialization in India. Following the World War I, the changing political and fiscal dynamics catalyzed India’s attainment of fiscal autonomy and implementation of a temporary trade protection policy. I construct a panel of industrial outcomes, trade statistics and policy variables and use the variation in the intensity of protection across industries to estimate the causal effect of the protection policy on the long-term performance of the Indian manufacturing industries, a decade after the tariffs were withdrawn or reduced. The empirical findings show evidence of dynamic learning effects and economies of scale for the industries that received greater protection. Highly protected industries experienced significant expansions in value of output, capital acquisition, input, employment, value added, and number of establishments. Industries that received greater protection also exhibited small but significant increases in capital and labor productivity. The findings suggest that the British colonial free trade policy did hinder industrial growth in India. The results have important implications for the infant-industry debate and how colonial policies have shaped India's development.

Abstract: I study a historical episode of technology adoption in the Indian cotton textile industry during the early 20th century. Using an establishment level dataset, I analyze the transition of the cotton mills from using mule to ring spinning technology. I first characterize the distribution of the establishment-level mule share and the factors that affect the distribution. Next, I examine the role of intensive and the extensive margin of establishment entry and exit in driving the changes in the distribution of mule share. I find that surviving mills adopted ring gradually and accounted for 69\% of the overall change in mule shares. Changes in mule share have been significantly low over the years for mills having high spindleage relative to the small sized mills. Lower depreciation rate of the machines due to their longer lifespan and high initial investments of ring were important determinants for such lower changes in mule share for these mills. I also find that unlike entry, the exit margin played a significant role in the diffusion process by reducing the dispersion in the distribution of mule share.

"Aftermath of High Mortality Shock: Evidence from Plague and Other Epidemics in Colonial India during 1890-1915" (Paper Draft) 

Abstract: In this paper, I study the impact of a large-scale mortality shock in India during the late 1890s on the demographic outcomes of the economy. Using the spatial variation in the intensity of a mortality shock during 1900, I estimate its effect on the population dynamics post the shock. According to the Malthusian theory, a sudden decline in the population due to a mortality shock would result in increased income per-capita from higher land-labor ratios which is mostly channelized towards higher fertility rates. Consistent with this mechanism, I find that the high mortality districts during the epidemic shock have higher birth rates in the period after the shock relative to the low mortality districts. Increased births per-capita combined with decline in death rates in the period following the shock play an important role in the population recovery. 

Work in Progress


Abstract: In context of the great divergence debate, literature has highlighted the role of major epidemics driving the route of economic development and growth trajectory of economies. In this paper, I study the economic impact of a mortality shock from Bombay bubonic plague epidemic in India and the effects of the associated public policies (NPIs) implemented on the economy. I have constructed a town-level data set on plague mortality, NPI measures, demographic, health, and economic outcomes of the Bombay Presidency during the period of 1891 to 1911. I first analyze the efficacy of ‘evacuation’ policy (NPI) in controlling the plague mortality rates and the duration of epidemic. Then, using the variation in the evacuation status, speed, and intensity of its operation, I implement a differences-in-differences (DID) approach to identify the effect on population, total mortality, and other contagious disease mortality rates in later years. I argue that if evacuated towns have better plague control measures (e.g., drainage and sanitation facilities) undertaken by the Government it might help controlling other disease mortality rates associated to plague, as well as influence settlement patterns and demographic characteristics of the towns. Preliminary results indicate, evacuated towns have 0.31, 0.40, 1.79 points less plague, cholera, and fever deaths per 1000 population respectively and have experienced a 14% higher growth in population relative to the non-evacuated towns.



This paper studies the impact of a conditional cash transfer program (Kanyashree Prakalpa (KP)) on female students’ enrollment, learning outcomes and marriages in the Indian state of West Bengal. The program aimed to improve the status and wellbeing of girls by reducing incidence of child marriage and increasing the secondary or higher education of girls till at least 18 years of age. Using the data from multiple rounds a large representative household survey, we employ a difference-in-differences and triple-difference approach considering the younger cohort (exposed to the program) as the treated group, the older cohort (not exposed to the program) as the control group, and the neighboring state of Jharkhand as a comparison state. The study contributes to the scarce literature on the long-term impact of government policies targeted towards improvement of girl’s education, reduction of child marriages, and overall well-being of women.