Research
Research
ABSTRACT
Energy insecurity remains persistent and understudied in the United States (U.S.). When households cannot maintain steady access to energy, the harms go beyond financial strain. Gaps in heat, cooling, or electricity place individuals at direct risk, and often threaten health. Most studies on energy insecurity measure it using financial indicators, such as household energy cost burdens or the frequency of utility shutoffs. However, these markers provide only a partial picture. They overlook the broader and more pressing consequences of energy insecurity, especially how it affects health. Using nationally representative data from the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), this study examined the relationship between energy insecurity and self-reported health risks among U.S. households. This study uses instrumental variable (IV) and propensity score matching (PSM), with local oil and gas prices as instruments. The analysis revealed that energy insecurity positively impacts health risks, primarily due to high costs, power outages, and extreme weather conditions. Cold indoor conditions are more dangerous than heat, especially for older and low-income populations. Lower prices do not offset the risks of severe weather. Cold regions are the most affected. Policies must go beyond financial aid by improving infrastructure and addressing the behavioral barriers. Lower energy prices are often seen as a way to ease energy insecurity. However, our analysis shows otherwise. Price declines do not reduce the health risks exacerbated by extreme weather. The effects of energy insecurity also differ across regions. Cold areas face the greatest challenges in this regard. These results indicate a clear need for targeted policies. Support must extend beyond financial assistance. Stronger infrastructure and attention to behavioral limits are essential for protecting vulnerable groups.
Information and Premium Shocks: Dual Effects of Flood Zone Reclassification on Insurance Take-up and Residential Mobility. (Job Market Paper)
ABSTRACT
Government risk disclosures are giving homeowners more precise information about flood exposure. I exploit the staggered rollout of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) updates and event-time variation around map-effective dates to estimate their impacts on premiums, coverage, and mobility. Linking administrative National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) records to county-to-county IRS migration files, I document two core channels through which access to flood-risk information changes behavior. First, reclassification makes risk more salient and tightens lender compliance with the mandatory-purchase rule, lowering the effective entry hurdle: average county premiums fall by 5-8% in the first two years, while take-up rises sharply and remains elevated, what I term a “price buffer plus quantity expansion” path. The flow decomposition shows that coverage growth is led by new originations rather than renewals, and price semi-elasticities turn negative only after transitional discounts phase out, indicating a mild but persistent headwind in the medium run. Second, the same public signal reorganizes where people live. In-migration and out-migration rise together, lifting gross mobility by more than 10 movers per 1,000 exemptions, while net migration stays near zero, consistent with turnover and re-sorting rather than one-sided flight. As a result, this paper highlights the role of public information in improving near-term risk sharing and facilitating orderly spatial reallocation, while exposing a tension between expanded coverage and long-run affordability.
Market Authorization Holder (MAH) Pilot Program and Its Role in Driving Innovation in China’s Pharmaceutical Industry. (with Tannista Banerjee, Aditi Sengupta, Zihang Li)
ABSTRACT
This study evaluates the impact of China's Marketing Authorization Holder (MAH) pilot program, implemented between 2016 and 2018, on innovation within the pharmaceutical industry. The program aimed to decouple production rights from marketing rights, facilitating faster approval and commercialization of new products. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach and a comprehensive dataset of 98,612 patent records from 3,203 companies, we analyzed the effects of the MAH system on patent activity across 4,280 companies. The results show that the MAH program significantly increased the number of authorized patents, forward citations, and patent rights assertions, while also reducing patent examination times. Notably, the program primarily stimulated innovation in non-traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) companies, suggesting that product innovation, rather than process innovation, drove these changes. This research provides new insights into the relationship between regulatory frameworks and innovation, particularly in developing countries, and offers valuable guidance for policymakers seeking to enhance the innovative capacity of the pharmaceutical sector.
Green credit policy and environmental pollution governance: source control or end-of-pipe treatment? (with Zhengyang Li, Tiancai Xing, Ke Guo)
ABSTRACT
Green credit is a major policy innovation to coordinate the balance between economy and environment. This study examines the impact of China’s green credit policy on environmental pollution governance. Using China’s provincial panel data from 2007-2020, we investigate the influence mechanism and channel of green credit on different pollution governance modes: source control and end-of-pipe treatment. The results show that green credit can achieve both source control and end-of-pipe treatment, and the effect of end-of-pipe treatment is more significant. Furthermore, the channels through which green credit affects the two pollution governance models are different. Improving green innovation level is one of the channels through which green credit enhances source control, while pollution control investment is the channel for green credit to affect end-of-pipe treatment. Moreover, in order to explore better administrative means paired with green credit, which is one of the market-oriented environmental policy tools, we also conduct a moderating effect analysis. We find that the combination of government support and green credit is more effective than government punishment in end-of-pipe treatment, yet government support and punishment both weaken the promotion effect of green credit on source control. Our research has some practical significance and may be useful for policymakers.
Risk Information, Mobility Frictions, and Two-Way Turnover
SUMMARY
This study asks whether floodplain remapping pushes residents out or pulls them in. Combining staggered map updates, IRS county-to-county flows, and pre-treatment ACS characteristics, we estimate staggered DID with continuous heterogeneity and a lightweight OD gravity check. Remapping raises inflows, outflows, and gross migration, while net migration is essentially unchanged, evidence of faster two-way churn rather than reallocation. A within-county composition propensity split shows the gross rise is driven mainly by higher mobility propensities, not shifts in population shares. And counties with higher education, stronger employment, shorter commutes, and lower poverty see symmetric increases in inflows and outflows. Renters and mortgage holders are more mobile but do not generate net gains. Remap is more like lubricating the migration market. The fact that the net flow remains unchanged does not mean that the policy is ineffective. Instead, this study suggests that policies should focus on reducing flow friction and improving risk information.
Reclassifying Risk: Flood Zones and the Stability of Social Safety Nets
SUMMARY
This paper explores the impact of FEMA's flood map remapping on household behavior and social safety nets, particularly in the context of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach, I analyze NFIP policy and claims data, FEMA flood mapping reports, and government transfer payment data. The findings show that newly classified flood-prone properties experienced a significant increase in flood insurance premiums, with premiums rising by 61% eight years after redistricting. A 1% increase in premiums led to a 1.35 percentage point decrease in policyholder count, though insurance take-up rates rebounded after four years. Additionally, while Medicare and SNAP payments increased, unemployment benefits decreased, resulting in no significant net change in total transfer payments. These results highlight the need for targeted policy interventions to support vulnerable populations as flood risks increase.
Ke Guo, Yuequn Cao, Shan He, Zhengyang Li. “Evaluating the efficiency of green economic production and environmental pollution control in China.” Environmental Impact Assessment Review, Volume 104, 2024, 107294, ISSN 0195-9255, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107294.