Abstract: In response to the pandemic recession, the 2020 CARES Act expanded eligibility and payments for Unemployment Insurance (UI). UI and the CARES Act may be more salient for people with disabilities than for those without disabilities given their higher rates of job loss, lower personal and family incomes, and greater obstacles in finding jobs. Using March 2008-2023 CPS data, we find: 1) disability is linked to higher UI receipt and UI values as a percent of personal and family incomes; 2) the CARES UI supplement had especially favorable effects on incomes and poverty status for workers with disabilities in 2020; and 3) workers with disabilities who receive UI are especially likely to be employed the following March, an effect that may have been magnified by the CARES UI supplement. The results suggest that UI may play a salutary role in maintaining the health and job readiness of workers with disabilities.
Abstract: This paper studies how individuals adjust migration decisions in response to large natural disasters. I examine the impact of the 2015 Nepal earthquake on internal and international migration, exploiting variation in ground-shake intensity and mortality rates across districts. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I find a significant decline in international migration from affected districts across destinations, particularly among men. The probability of male international migration decreased by 3–6 percentage points (a 28-57% decrease relative to the pre-earthquake mean), with similar magnitudes for migration to India. Male labor permits issued for employment in countries other than India declined by 8%, a smaller but more precisely estimated effect. In contrast, internal migration and the low female migration were largely unaffected. These findings suggest that large natural disasters can reduce outward mobility, particularly when migration is costly and requires upfront investment, as earthquake-related asset losses constrained households' ability to finance migration costs and reconstruction-related labor demand increased the opportunity cost of migrating. Overall, the paper highlights the role of financial and labor market conditions in shaping migration responses to economic disruptions, emphasizing the need for stronger safety nets that help households smooth income and support post-disaster recovery.
Paper linked here.
Abstract: People with disabilities are disproportionately represented in low-wage work, raising concerns that higher wage floors may reduce their employment opportunities, particularly for workers with more severe disabilities. We examine the effects of state minimum wage increases and state subminimum wage terminations on employment outcomes for people with disabilities using American Community Survey data from 2010–2023. We find little evidence that minimum wage increases reduce employment or labor force participation among people with disabilities, including those with more severe disabilities. While many estimates are statistically imprecise, confidence intervals generally rule out economically meaningful negative employment effects. We likewise find no evidence that terminating subminimum wages reduces employment opportunities for affected workers, and some estimates suggest positive employment effects for groups most likely to have been employed under subminimum wage arrangements. These gains may reflect complementary policies that often accompany repeal, such as Employment First initiatives. Overall, the results provide little support for the view that higher wage floors create disproportionate employment barriers for people with disabilities.
Abstract: College costs are an important determinant of postsecondary education choices and may also shape decisions between college and alternative career paths. This paper examines how reductions in the cost of community college affect postsecondary enrollment and whether increased access to college affects the supply of military recruits. I exploit the staggered adoption of statewide free community college Promise programs across the United States between 2007 and 2022 using two-way fixed effects and \textcite{callaway2021difference} difference-in-differences methods, with college enrollment data from IPEDS and military enlistment data from the Defense Manpower Data Center. Promise program adoption increases overall community college enrollment by approximately 13\%, with larger increases for some demographic groups. Despite these enrollment gains, I find no consistent evidence that Promise programs reduce military enlistment. An IV analysis using Promise program adoption as an instrument for enrollment has a weak first stage and therefore does not provide reliable evidence on the proposed enrollment-enlistment mechanism. However, a Tennessee specific analysis finds a large enrollment response and significant declines in enlistment among females and Black individuals. Overall, the findings suggest that substantial increases in community college enrollment due to reductions in college costs do not generate broad reductions in military enlistment, while substitution between community college and military service may occur for particular programs and populations.
Paper linked here.
Abstract: Improvements in migration opportunities can increase the returns to human capital, potentially leading individuals to adjust their educational investments, a brain gain effect. This paper studies this relationship in the context of recruitment into the British Army from Nepal, where policy changes in 2004 and 2007 expanded post-service settlement rights in the UK and improved pension eligibility, increasing the attractiveness of military service. I first replicate earlier findings that education-related recruitment policies introduced in 1993 increased schooling among eligible cohorts. I then examine whether the improved migration prospects affected educational outcomes of non-recruited youths using a difference-in-differences design. I find no statistically significant effects in average years of schooling. However, the policies increased the likelihood of completing 12th grade or higher by 4-6 percentage points among cohorts exposed to the policy for longer. These findings suggest that while migration incentives can influence certain schooling decisions, they do not always translate to overall increases in human capital investment. More generally, the results highlight that the effects of migration opportunities on education may be context-dependent, particularly when access to migration is uncertain and realized only after a prolonged period.