SWC DAY 1 CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK

…SUMMARY…

A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms could occur farther east into parts of Lower Michigan early Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this afternoon and evening.

As the increasing moisture spreads farther north overnight, it will interact with the east-west oriented frontal zone from southern Wisconsin into lower Michigan, with additional development expected. Areas of hail remain possible as lapse rates aloft will be steep. Moderate deep-layer mean wind speeds should also result in corridors of strong to damaging gusts as storms amass outflow.

…IOWA TO LOWER MICHIGAN…

Fast zonal flow is present across the northern tier of states today, Fast zonal flow is present across the northern tier of states to the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. A combination of daytime heating, low-level warm/moist advection, and increasing low-level convergence along a surface baroclinic zone will result in scattered thunderstorms after dark over Iowa. These storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear.

Storms will persist through the night and spread across much of lower Michigan.

…TEXAS PANHANDLE…

A moderately unstable air mass along the dry-line over Texas’ Panhandle this evening. Isolated thunderstorms may develop over the region.

Forecaster Rain

Invest 90P
LOW Chance of development in the next 24hrs. Sustained surface winds of 35km/h and sea level pressure of 1007hPa.

Forecaster Mountain

NO AREAS OF INTEREST

Forecaster Mountain