Evaluating Quarterbacks is often touted as one of the most difficult things in football. Given the number of variables and how much the landing spot and mental makeup of the player matter for their success, a purely analytical approach is always going to be missing something. That being said, I feel that there are elements of current analytical process that leaves value on the table when it comes to predicting quarterbacks from college to the pro ranks. 

The method that I have settled on utilizes two composite metrics to evaluate overall playstyle and effectiveness and then employs Bayesian updating methodologies to take their entire sample size into account over their careers. The metrics are comprised of features that try to capture the elements that are in the structure of the play and what the prospect is bringing on their own outside of that. This methodology has proven quite effective for translating players from college to the NFL.

Notable players that the model was high on in college that have translated to the pros: 

• Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, and Josh Allen.

The model has also proven effective for avoiding overdrafting players that don't end up having much NFL success: 

• Mac Jones, Will Levis, and Kenny Pickett.

Follow these links for more

• This Link goes to a recording of a talk I gave at the Midwest Sports Analytics Meeting (MSAM) hosted by Central College discussing my methodology.

• This Link goes to the shiny app which displays both college and pro values.