Research

Selected Publications

Guidolin M. and Ionta S. 

Predicting Commodity Returns with Climate Variables: Statistical Loss Functions vs. Economic Value.

Economics Letters. 2026. [DOI: Forthcoming]

Guidolin M. and Ionta S. 

Predictive Sorting of Cryptocurrencies Based On Fundamentals and Sentiment.

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money. 2026. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102285]

Afonso A., Alves J. and Ionta S. 

Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: A panel analysis of the Euro Area.

Journal of International Money and Finance. 2025. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103341]

Giuli F. , Ionta S. and Patella V.

Monetary/Fiscal Policy Dominance and Conflicts: Evidence from Crises.

Economics Letters. 2025.   [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112713]

Guidolin M. and Ionta S. 

Forecasting Asset Returns Using Nelson–Siegel Factors Estimated from the US Yield Curve.

Econometrics. 2025. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics13020017]

Afonso A., Alves J. and Ionta S. 

Monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability: the case of the Euro Area.

Economic Change and Restructuring. 2025. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-025-09881-4]

Working papers

Creel J. , Ionta S. and Traficante G.

Fiscal policies are not all alike: composition effects, regime switching and uncertainty. 2026.  SCIENCES PO OFCE WORKING PAPER n° 01/2026. [https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-05459696v1] 

Guidolin M. and Ionta S.

Uncertain Climate Policy as a Source of Macro-Financial Shocks: Evidence from Carbon Futures Volatility. 2026. BAFFI Centre Research Paper No. 262. [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6075046#] 

Guidolin M. and Ionta S.

Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Language Models: The Role of the Loss Function. 2026.

Guidolin M. and Ionta S.

Climate Policy Uncertainty and Financial Dynamics: Insights from a Bayesian SVAR Analysis. 2025.

Books & Other Articles

Giuli F.  and Ionta S. 

Sulla dominanza fiscale e monetaria: un’analisi Markov-switching per l’Italia. 

Giornate della Ricerca del Dipartimento di Economia di Roma Tre. 2023.