I am a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at the University of Calgary. My research is in labour and public economics, focusing on how policies and shocks shape employment, income, and adjustment over the life cycle. I'm actively on the job market for the 2025-2026 academic year.
You can find my CV here.
Department of Economics, University of Calgary
2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, AB, Canada
Email: sencer.karademir@ucalgary.ca
"The Multigenerational Impact of Children and Childcare Policies'" with Jean-William Laliberté and Stefan Staubli, Forthcoming at Journal of Labor Economics
Abstract: This paper examines the multigenerational impact of children and whether the public provision of formal childcare lessens the earnings and employment impacts of children. We find that the arrival of a firstborn reduces the employment and earnings of mothers and grandmothers. Studying a universal childcare program in Quebec, we find formal childcare increases the employment rates of mothers, as well as that of grandmothers to a lesser extent. Examining heterogeneity of the program's impact across Census Divisions, we find a negative correlation between the positive effects on mothers' employment and the pre-policy supply of informal childcare by grandmothers.
Abstract: This paper studies how the source of export-demand shocks shapes the adjustment of firms and workers. Using Canadian linked employer–employee data covering 2005–2019, I construct firm-specific exposure to global demand shifts during the Great Recession. I develop a new decomposition of export shocks into destination-wide, product-wide, and firm-specific components, capturing geographic, sectoral, and idiosyncratic variation in foreign demand. A one percent decline in destination demand reduces firm exports by about 0.7 percent and employment by 0.2 percent in the short run, while an equivalent product shock cuts exports by 0.3 percent and employment by 0.1 percent. Destination shocks persist for nearly a decade and induce firms to diversify across markets, while product shocks lead to scope contraction. Despite firm recovery, workers experience persistent income losses. A one percent drop in destination demand lowers long-run earnings by about 0.3 percent, with effects concentrated among displaced workers in markets where many employers face similar shocks. These patterns show that spatially correlated destination shocks compress local outside options and amplify long-run worker scarring. Although destination shocks account for a small share of total demand variation, their impact per unit of exposure is far larger, revealing a structural vulnerability in export concentration that drives the most persistent losses for workers.
"The Long-Run and Distributional Impacts of Early Pension Eligibility" with Stefan Staubli and Qiongda Zhao, Revise & Resubmit at The Economic Journal
Abstract: This paper studies the long-run effects of changing the early eligibility age (EEA) for old-age pensions, a common policy to alleviate fiscal pressure on public pension systems. While prior work has focused on short-term labour supply effects, we examine long-term impacts on economic wellbeing and poverty using two Canadian reforms in the 198 os that lowered the EEA from 65 to 60 . Leveraging rich administrative tax data and a difference-in-differences design, we track affected cohorts throughout their retirement until death. We find that a one-year EEA reduction lowers the average claiming age by 0.23 years, with no effect on pension claiming among spouses or children. Early claiming raises short-term pension income but reduces it later, keeping lifetime pension income unchanged but spread out over more years. Total income is stable early in retirement and declines later due to lower pension payments. Overall, the EEA reduction in the I980s compressed income disparities and significantly reduced elderly poverty among low-income retirees.
"An Evaluation of Take-up and Targeting in Income Transfer Programs", with Zack Moline and Stefan Staubli
Abstract: This project examines barriers to the take-up of major income transfer programs in Canada. Despite their central role in supporting low-income households, participation remains incomplete even among eligible recipients. We study how information gaps, transaction costs, and the complexity of application processes shape enrolment decisions, drawing on rich longitudinal administrative data and quasi-experimental variation generated by policy reforms and filing innovations. The analysis focuses on the effects of interventions such as targeted information campaigns, auto-enrolment initiatives, and the transition from paper to electronic tax filing. Early findings indicate that reducing informational and procedural frictions substantially increases program participation, and that the shift to electronic filing has facilitated broader access to benefits. By documenting how different barriers influence take-up, this project provides new evidence on the mechanisms that limit participation in safety net programs. The results contribute to ongoing debates about the design of social policies and the role of behavioural frictions in shaping access to public transfers.
Courses Taught
ECON 201 - Principles of Microeconomics, University of Calgary, Summer 2022
ECON 311 - Computer Applications in Economics, University of Calgary, Summer 2020
ECON 401 - Public Sector Economics: Expenditures, University of Calgary, Summer 2023
ECON 431 - Labour Economics, University of Calgary, Winter 2024
Teaching Assistant Experience (University of Calgary)
ECON 201 - Principles of Microeconomics
ECON 209 - Engineering Economics
ECON 311 - Computer Applications in Economics
ECON 357 - Intermediate Economic Theory - Microeconomics II
ECON 401 - Public Sector Economics: Expenditures
ECON 403 - Public Sector Economics: Taxation
ECON 705 - Advanced Econometrics I
ECON 707 - Advanced Microeconomic Theory I
ECON 757 - Advanced Microeconomic Theory II