Articles

Week 15 Fantasy Busts

By Calvin K

12/20/20

1. DeVante Parker (WR, vs. New England)

Parker was actually my bust pick for last week against the Chiefs, but he got hurt early in the game and left without a catch (which technically made my prediction correct!). This week, he draws another tough matchup: the New England Patriots. Stephon Gilmore has been fantastic since his return from injury, and he is likely to be shadowing Parker all game. The Patriots allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, a stat that looks even more impressive when you consider that they were missing Gilmore for a significant chunk of that time. Parker has had his moments this season, but he is unlikely to significantly produce in Week 15.

2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, vs. New Orleans)

Fantasy managers could be eager to start CEH against the Saints this week after they got torn up by Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts, but Edwards-Helaire is still likely to fall short of expectations in Week 15. The Saints still allow the fewest points per game to fantasy RBs this season, so last week should be viewed as an anomaly rather than a trend. Edwards-Helaire also hasn't not been very efficient lately; he has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry in his last five games. Edwards-Helaire has been solid for fantasy as of late, so he should still be started, but fantasy managers shouldn't expect too much from him this week.

Week 15 Fantasy Booms

By Calvin K

12/20/20

1. Raheem Mostert (RB, vs. Dallas)

Mostert's fantasy production hasn't been great over the last few weeks, as he hasn't scored double digit fantasy points since returning from injury. However, I'd expect him to bounce back this week against Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season, and while Mostert does share the rushing workload with Jeff Wilson, the 49ers run the ball enough to where he can still get enough touches to be productive. Mostert has gotten at least 16 touches in two of his last three games, and with San Francisco likely to be ahead for most of the game, they should be running the ball a lot.

2. Mike Evans (WR, vs. Atlanta)

It can be difficult to predict which Buccaneers WR will do well in any given week, but Evans's touchdown upside makes it likely that he will have a big game against Atlanta this week. The Falcons allow the second-most fantasy points per game to WRs, and Evans should be peppered with targets; he has averaged 7.8 per game over the last six weeks. He's also scored five touchdowns during that time, and he's had four games with at least 13.4 fantasy points (with none below 7.1). The Falcons are Evans's best fantasy matchup of the entire season, and his ceiling should lock him into Week 15 fantasy lineups.

Week 14 Fantasy Busts

By Calvin K

12/13/20

1. Logan Thomas (TE, vs. San Francisco)

Thomas broke out in a big way last week against the Steelers, catching nine passes for 98 yards and a score and putting up by far his best fantasy game this season. However, he can't be expected to put up fantastic production this week. For starters, he is facing the 49ers this week, who are the toughest tight end fantasy matchup in half-PPR. Also, Thomas has only exceeded 5.1 half-PPR fantasy points in six of his 12 games this season. Thomas can still be started if you're really in a pinch, but expectations need to be tempered, and there are many better options.

2. DeVante Parker (WR, vs. Kansas City)

Parker has scored over 15 half-PPR fantasy points in two of his last three games, but this week, he is in line for a bust performance. In two of those games, Parker faced the Jets and the Bengals, who both present easy fantasy matchups. This week, he draws the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been the third-toughest defense against fantasy wide receivers in half-PPR. The game could turn out to be a shootout, but it's more likely that the Chiefs are able to force Dolphins rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa into many mistakes.

Week 14 Fantasy Booms

By Calvin K

12/13/20

1. Keenan Allen (WR, vs. Atlanta)

Allen has been fantastic for most of this year, but last week, he fell short of expectations as the Chargers got shut out by the Patriots. Despite this, Allen still received 11 targets, and the 7.3 half-PPR fantasy points he put up look impressive under the circumstances. This week, Allen faces the Falcons, who are the third-easiest matchup for fantasy WRs in half-PPR. Allen should return to WR1 status this week, and I believe he even has the chance to be the WR1 overall.

2. A.J. Brown (WR, vs. Jacksonville)

Brown only managed 8.7 fantasy points against a soft Cleveland pass defense last week, but there's reason the believe that he will bounce back for a big game this week. Last week was only the second time in his last nine games that Brown scored in the single digits, and this week, he gets what is arguably an even easier matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Not only that, Brown actually fumbled short of a touchdown last week, so he had an opportunity for an even bigger game. Brown should be locked into fantasy lineups this week, with a decent chance to be in the top five at the wide receiver position.

Week 13 Fantasy Busts

By Calvin K

12/5/20

Earlier this week, I named three fantasy boom candidates that I was excited about for Week 13. Now, in this article, I'll be naming three fantasy players who probably won't live up to expectations this week. These players don't necessarily need to be benched, but fantasy managers with any of them should temper their expectations for this week.

1. Evan Engram (TE, vs. Seahawks)

Expectations will be high for the Giants tight end after he racked up 129 yards against the Bengals last week, but there are multiple reasons to worry about his Week 13 fantasy production. Last week was Engram's first 100-yard game of the season, and with Daniel Jones likely to miss this week, Engram will have a hard time repeating his performance. He also has a tough matchup, as the Seahawks allow the 7th fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position. The Seahawks, while good against tight ends, are terrible against wide receivers, and with wide receiver options such as Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Golden Tate at the Giants' disposal, Engram may not get very many looks this week from backup quarterback Colt McCoy.

2. DeAndre Hopkins (WR, vs. Rams)

Hopkins has had a solid target share over the last two weeks (15 targets combined in Weeks 11-12), but those targets haven't translated into great fantasy production. Hopkins hasn't exceeded eight half-PPR fantasy points in either of those games, and now, he draws the Los Angeles Rams, who allow the fewest fantasy points-per-game to fantasy WRs. Hopkins hasn't been terrible lately, and he is still a must-start in fantasy, but with Jalen Ramsey likely to shadow him for most of the game, expectations for the star Cardinals receiver should be lowered.

3. JuJu Smith Schuster (WR, vs. Washington)

Smith-Schuster has actually been solid in fantasy over the last few weeks after an atrocious start to the season, but I wouldn't expect much from him this week. One of JuJu's main drawbacks is that he's never been a true WR1 in an offense, and with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool enjoying breakout seasons, JuJu has been relegated to WR3 status on the Steelers. This means that, while JuJu can still produce with the right matchup, a tough one can destroy him for fantasy. The Washington Football Team is exactly that type of matchup, as they have quietly allowed the seond-fewest fantasy points-per-game to fantasy WRs this season. Ben Roethlisberger may still get some production for his wide receivers, but because Smith-Schuster is only the third-best fantasy option in the offense, production may be scarce for the young wideout.

Week 13 Fantasy Booms

By Calvin K

12/3/20

The fantasy playoffs are just a week away, and many fantasy managers will certainly be in need of a boom candidate to carry them to a victory and a playoff berth. Fortunately, there are many players who are primed for a big week in Week 13. I'll be naming three of them below.

1. Darren Waller (TE, vs. Jets)

Waller is coming off a bad week, scoring just 4.3 half-PPR fantasy points in a game where the Raiders' offense surprisingly struggled against a bad Falcons defense. However, the Raiders' offense has been good for most of this year, so look for them to get back on track against the Jets, who also have a bad defense. Waller is the TE2 in half-PPR fantasy, and as the centerpiece of the Raiders' passing attack, he should be leading the charge against the NFL's only winless team. Thus, Waller is a lock to be started in fantasy this league, with huge potential for a big game.

2. Taysom Hill (QB, vs. Falcons)

Hill was the fantasy QB3 against the Falcons in Week 11, and more fantasy production should come this week from the dual-threat QB. Hill has had 10 carries in each of his last two games, giving him one of the highest QB rushing floors in the league. He also managed to throw for 233 yards against Atlanta in Week 11, so he should produce through the air as well. Atlanta has allowed the second most points per game to fantasy QBs this season, and because Hill has scored over 17.5 fantasy points in both of his last two games, he can be trusted as a solid start with big potential.

3. Raheem Mostert (RB, vs. Bills)

Mostert has been incredibly efficient on the ground this season, with 5.2 yards per carry so far this year. It was encouraging to see him get 18 touches last week in his first game back from an injury, and in Week 13, he gets to face the Bills, who are 24th against fantasy RBs in half-PPR. In the five games that he's played, Mostert has been the RB13 in half-PPR fantasy points per game, and that includes the two games that he left early with an injury. Mostert is an extremely talented running back, and the combination of his matchup, touch share, and efficiency means that he is a top 12 play this week with tremendous upside.

Week 12 Fantasy Football Booms and Busts

By Calvin K

11/27/20

The Thanksgiving games have come and gone, and fantasy owners are now getting ready for a Sunday slate that still has 12 matchups. With just two weeks left in the fantasy regular season, each matchup is now more important than ever. In this article, I'll be giving three of my favorite boom picks for Week 12, along with three players who have a high chance to bust this week.

Booms

Raheem Mostert (RB, vs. Rams)

Mostert was one of my favorite fantasy value picks heading into the season, and when he's been on the field, he's been fantastic. In his four games played, he's averaged 15.5 touches, and he's the current RB8 in fantasy points per game even while leaving two games early due to injury. His yards-per-carry is a ridiculous 5.9, and he may not even see significant regression from there, his career YPC is 6.0. He's also averaged three targets per game this year, a reasonable number when you consider his injuries. There's a chance he doesn't return this week, but even if he does, fantasy managers could end up cautiously sitting him due to the injury and the tough matchup against the Rams. That is the wrong move. When facing the Rams in Week 6, Mostert picked up 19 touches in just a half of football, scoring 8.6 fantasy points in half-PPR even without a touchdown. Mostert has also proven he can come back strong from an injury. After returning from his first injury in Week 5, he put up 119 scrimmage yards on just 14 touches. Any regression in the yards-per-carry department should be made up for by an increase in volume, making Mostert a great play in the weeks beyond as well.

Robby Anderson (WR, vs. Vikings)

Anderson hasn't been great for fantasy purposes over the last few weeks, but he is a great start for Week 12. Anderson has averaged a whopping 8.6 targets per game over the course of the season, and now he faces the Vikings, who have been the fourth-worst defense against fantasy WRs in half-PPR. Anderson also gets Teddy Bridgewater back this week, as Bridgewater sat out last week's game with an injury. With Christian McCaffrey unlikely to come back this week, the targets should be there for Anderson, so look for him to turn them into good fantasy production this week.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, vs. Titans)

After a slow start to the season, Pittman has finally turned into the breakout receiver that the Colts hoped he would be. After piling up 101 yards against the Titans two weeks ago, he picked up 66 yards and a touchdown against a tough Packers defense. Now, he gets the Titans again this week, who are among the league's worst defenses against fantasy WRs (27th in half-PPR). The low target share from last week was concerning, but he received more volume two weeks ago against the Titans, and he has been very efficient with his targets, picking up 29.8 half-PPR fantasy points with just 11 targets (and one rush). Pittman doesn't have a massive sample size just yet, but he is a decent option at flex for this week.

Busts

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, vs. Buccaneers)

Edwards-Helaire put up nice numbers last week against the Raiders, but he scored two touchdowns, which was the main reason he produced. Now, he will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Buccaneers' great offense will also force the Chiefs to pass to keep up, and the running game won't be as big of a factor as it was last week. Finally, Le'Veon Bell had eight touches last week, and he doesn't seem to be going away. All of these factors make it unlikely that Edwards-Helaire will get 15 touches like he did last week, and while you don't have to bench him this week, be wary, as a bust performance is likely.

Melvin Gordon (RB, vs. Saints)

Gordon's situation is very similar to Edwards-Helaire's this week. Both players are in a timeshare that caps their touch potential, and both were carried to good fantasy weeks because of two-touchdown games last week. Gordon's matchup is even more difficult in Week 12, as he gets the New Orleans Saints, who allow the least fantasy points per game to running backs in half-PPR. The Saints' offense can still be trouble even without Drew Brees, so the Broncos will probably have to lean on the pass, making a bust game even more likely for Broncos RBs.

Tee Higgins (WR, vs. Giants)

The Giants are about average against fantasy WRs this year, but that's not what worries me regarding Higgins' fantasy value for this week. With Joe Burrow done for the year, the Bengals are turning to Brandon Allen at QB, and we saw Cincinnati's offense sputter last year with Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley as the starters. There's no reason to believe that Allen will be significantly better than those two, and the Bengals will probably be forced to lean on two players; RB Giovani Bernard (if he plays), and WR Tyler Boyd. Boyd and starting RB Joe Mixon (who is currently on IR) were the only Bengals players that produced last year with the atrocious QB play. Higgins has been fantastic for most of this year, but Boyd is the more reliable option at WR, and while there's a chance Higgins plays well, it would be best to sit him with a wait-and-see approach this week unless you're really in a WR bind.

Week 12 Fantasy Football Streamers

By Calvin K

11/25/20

The fantasy playoffs are nearing, and while there are no byes in the NFL this week, injuries have ravaged the league so far this year. Because of this, many fantasy owners could be without reliable options to fill in for their injured starters. Fortunately, there are some options on the waiver wire. In this article, I'll name at least two QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs who can be viable streamers this week.

NOTE: These players are available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues.

QB

Teddy Bridgewater (Carolina Panthers)

Bridgewater was a game-time decision last week against the Detroit Lions, but he was ruled out with a sprained MCL. Now, he seems likely to return this week against a bad Vikings pass defense. Bridgewater ranks 17th among fantasy QBs in points per game (with a respectable 17.8), and he has scored 47.34 fantasy points in his last two outings. Bridgewater has been helped by rushing touchdowns in his past two games, and while he may be more hesitant to run with a leg injury, he still has solid streaming value against the beatable Minnesota secondary.

Daniel Jones (New York Giants)

Jones has been up-and-down so far this season, but he has improved throughout the year, making fewer mistakes and smarter decisions. Before the Giants' bye last week, Jones scored 22.16 fantasy points against Philadelphia. Now, after getting some rest, he'll get to face the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed 21.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over their last five outings. Bridgewater is certainly a better long-term add than Jones, but if you're looking for a one week plug-and-play, Jones is a solid option.

RB

Gus Edwards (Baltimore Ravens)

Edwards should be owned in way more than 31.7% of ESPN leagues, but shockingly enough, that is his current ownership level. With Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins expected to miss two weeks after positive COVID-19 tests, Edwards will be the number one guy in the Ravens' backfield. He faces the Steelers this week, which is certainly a tough matchup, but Edwards was able to run for 87 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 8, so it's not like they're completely unbeatable. Next week, in the final game of the fantasy regular season, Edwards and the Ravens face Dallas. The Cowboys' defense has been atrocious lately, and that matchup could carry many Edwards owners to the playoffs. Even considering the tough matchup, Edwards is worth an add and a start this week. It's not often that starting RBs are on waivers, so make sure to add him immediately if he's available in your league.

Wayne Gallman (New York Giants)

When preparing this article, I was shocked to find that Gallman is only owned in 48.8% of ESPN leagues. Granted, many of those leagues are non-competitive, but it's still worth it to check and see if Gallman is still available in yours. Over his last four games, Gallman averaged 14.825 half-PPR fantasy points per game. Now, with Devonta Freeman sidelined for at least one more week, Gallman should lead the backfield again against a beatable Cincinnati defensive line. Even when Freeman returns, I'd expect Gallman to continue getting touches, and there's even a chance that he keeps his hold on the backfield.

James White (New England Patriots)

White is easily the best streaming option still available on waivers this week, but he is owned in 43.2% of ESPN leagues, so his availability isn't too widespread. However, if he's there in your league, he could become a nice fill-in for this week. White picked up 11.3 fantasy points in half-PPR last week after Rex Burkhead was carted off with an injury, and with Burkhead now out for the year, White should continue to be productive. He faces Arizona this week, who is 14th against fantasy running backs, but they are also 26th against WRs, so White's pass-catching ability could come in handy. There are not many good RBs on the waiver wire at this point, so fantasy managers in need should jump at the chance to grab White.

WR

Tim Patrick (Denver Broncos)

Patrick has been sitting on waiver wires for a while (16.6% ownership in ESPN leagues), but he continues to put up numbers game after game. Patrick has averaged 7.7 targets per game in his last three outings, while averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game during that span. Last week against the Dolphins, Patrick had his third 100-yard game of the season, with 119 receiving yards on five catches. Now, he's facing a Saints secondary that could be missing Marshon Lattimore again this week (although Lattimore would most likely be more focused on fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy). Patrick's floor has been extremely consistent this year, and he's proven that his ceiling is very high as well, making him a nice streaming option for this week and beyond.

Nelson Agholor (Oakland Raiders)

Agholor broke out in a big way last week, catching six of nine targets for 88 yards and a score against the Chiefs. This week, he will face the Falcons, who are 30th against fantasy WRs in half-PPR. Agholor hasn't been too consistent (he had one catch in Weeks 8 and 10 combined), but the matchup makes him a nice boom-or-bust play this week. Agholor has a chance to bust, of course, but his upside could make him a top 12 play at WR this week, and that upside is too good to pass up.

TE

Dalton Schultz (Dallas Cowboys)

Schultz has hit his stride over his last three games, catching 14 of 21 targets and averaging 8.2 fantasy points per game over that span. Now, on Thanksgiving Day, he will square off against a Washington defense that is good against WRs, but bad against TEs (22nd against fantasy TEs so far this season). Schultz is owned in only 29.4% of ESPN leagues, so if you're looking for a high-floor TE this week, Schultz is an option who could be available.

Jordan Akins (Houston Texans)

With Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills out last week, Akins stepped up for Houston, grabbing five of six targets for 83 yards against a tough New England defense. Now, with Stills and Cobb out again this week, Akins will face the Detroit Lions, who present a better matchup than the Patriots (10th against fantasy TEs to New England's 5th). Akins does come with some risk, as Houston's target distribution can change drastically from week to week, but with two of his WRs out, there's a good chance that Texans QB Deshaun Watson looks to Akins early and often in the game.

The Case Against Injured RBs

By Touchdown Kirk

11/19/20

The injury bug has been consuming the NFL as of late. Running backs for many teams have gone down to injuries or COVID-19, including many of the top players in fantasy. Many fantasy owners have taken to trading for these injured or ill RBs, but is that really the best strategy? In this article, I discuss the different injured RBs and their prospects in fantasy.

Devonta Freeman, New York Giants

It doesn’t seem likely that he will be hurt for too much longer but the New York backup had been thrust into the limelight with Saquon Barkley’s season-ending injury. Freeman was decent in the games where he started, but now some injuries have ceded the Giants’ backfield to Wayne Gallman and Dion Lewis. When Freeman returns, however, I’m not convinced that these players will step aside. Freeman has a history of inconsistency back when he was a Falcon, and this backfield situation is too indistinct for him to be relied upon. Sell him before his numbers drop, and it will definitely improve your team.

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers

Of all the players on this list, Mostert may have the most talent while healthy. He averaged 15.7 fantasy points in four games, two of which he was injured in, and performed even better at the end of last year. However, he has been hurt multiple times this season, and although he may return soon, the Mostert-lover in your league will pay you far more than he’s worth once he comes back. His injury risk and unsustainable production makes him a great sell-high, especially since he has a couple of tough matchups coming up that may quickly drop his value.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

After a solid start to the season, Mixon went down with many of his peers and was replaced by Giovani Bernard, his longtime backup who has played very well in his absence. Once he comes back, his value is up in the air. While I’m not concerned about Bernard eating into his touches—his production is largely opportunity-based—Mixon is still facing a lot of challenges, including a few tough matchups. In addition, Joe Burrow is quickly taking control of the offense, along with Bernard, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, so he will be shut out of the passing game. I would keep him in standard leagues, but find somebody who values him too high and sell him off in any PPR leagues.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

Ekeler previously split time with Melvin Gordon before finally taking a starting role this season. He played well (13.4 PPG including a 1.9 point outlier) before his injury. After a long wait, he’ll be coming back soon, and when he does, it’ll be tough to decide what to do with him. But I don’t think that he’ll play up to par, with Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley, and the passing game of the Chargers all eating into his touches. He isn’t ready to be a workhorse back, and this three-way timeshare will drop him to RB2 levels at least. Sell him off for someone more reliable.

Rob Gronkowski: Overrated?

The newly acquired Buccaneers tight end has had an amazing career, but it should not be assumed that he will be an elite fantasy player in 2020.

By Calvin K

4/22/20

Rob Gronkowski has had one of the best careers for a tight end in NFL history. He has won three Super Bowls, been named to five Pro Bowls, and had four seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards. These accomplishments are undoubtedly amazing, and they surely will be enough to make Gronkowski a Hall of Famer someday. However, his past achievements should not be treated as a success guarantee for 2020.

One reason why Gronkowski should not be projected as an elite fantasy tight end in 2020 is his injury history. In his nine years in the NFL so far, Gronk has missed 29 games, averaging less than 13 games played per season. These injuries have happened all over his body, and he has battled with concussions, a torn ACL and MCL, and back injuries throughout his career. Taking a year off does not help his injury chances, and even if he is on the field, he certainly is not the same player that he was three years ago.

A general decline in play could also limit Gronkowski's fantasy production in 2020. In 2018, despite only playing one fewer game than in 2017, Gronk had 402 fewer receiving yards and five fewer touchdowns than he did the previous year. This could be attributed partially to a target decrease (he went from 69 targets in 2017 to 47 in 2018), but a low target share could have the same effect for fantasy. Not only that, Tom Brady is not the same player he used to be, and his accuracy decrease could also bring down Gronk's production. Finally, Gronkowski is playing with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, two star receivers, and this is bound to bring his target share down.

A year off from the NFL will almost certainly hurt Gronkowski's production as well. For most of the year, he was not trying to be in football shape, and it's possible that he won't be fully prepared for the NFL at the start of the 2020 season. He won't be used to the damage that bodies take in the NFL, and this could end up increasing his injury risk even more. Even if his on-field production drops, which it probably will, he may not even be on the field for a lot of 2020.

Rob Gronkowski undoubtedly still has talent, and there is a slight chance that he has a resurgence in the twilight of his career. However, his decline in numbers and his injury history say otherwise. Gronk is a clear Hall of Famer in my eyes, but I do not foresee any sort of glorious ending to his career.

Why You Should Target a Buffalo Bill In Your Fantasy Draft

By Touchdown Kirk

4/7/20

For the past two decades, you would have laughed in my face if I told you that you should be drafting someone from Buffalo.

Now, it’s April 2020, and a new decade is here. Along with that comes an all-new Bills squad. And there are several players you should definitely consider drafting when the big day rolls around. However ridiculous targeting a player from that team might seem, the Bills are better.

And with Tom Brady headed for Tampa, they’re the best team in the AFC East.

The Bills will play at least six games against teams that are not a danger to them. It will be more than that, because those six games will all be in their division.

The Jets are moderately good at defense, but Josh Allen, especially with a new receiving threat and probably another piece coming to either side of the ball in the draft, will tear them apart. Last year, running QBs were the bane of any defensive coordinator. So, right there, you’re getting two almost guaranteed 18-20 point games for Allen, or at least nine points for Diggs. As for their RBs, if the timeshare is done right (which it will be), they will both have FLEX-caliber games. So your Buffalo Bill will deliver in those two weeks—but don’t worry. There’s four more great games coming to you—again, probably many more if the Bills’ schedule is at all good.

Next, we have the Dolphins. Unless you travel back to the age of color TV being a novelty, they will not be good. Even if they get a new QB, they will need to develop him (unless he’s Joe Burrow, which he won’t be). So you can count on a solid showing from the Bills’ defense. Then we reach the subject of Miami’s defense. Again, you would be hard-pressed to find more than five or ten good defenses in the thirty years, and you won’t find one now. Start your Bills with confidence against Miami, offense or defense.

The biggest threat to a Bills’ offensive player (at least within their division) is the Patriots. They were the number-one fantasy defense this year... against an appallingly easy schedule. The Bills are no pushover. Last year the Patriots couldn’t figure out QBs like Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen is a very similar player. A befuddled defense is always a good thing when it comes to your offense. As for the D/ST, they’ll have some fun picking off Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham, because the Patriots, even if they draft a first-round QB, will not have a good offense. They have one decent wide receiver, a running game that is weak against any good defense, and, as I said, a quarterback that will be meat to the attack dog of the Bills’ defense. Start both sides of the ball here, leaning towards defense for this match.

So if you target Bills players at value, then you’ll get six games that you can win, which points to a very good season for you—and for that team in western New York State.

Who to Watch This Offseason

By Touchdown Kirk

2/11/20

The NFL offseason is now fully underway with yesterday's announcement that Phillip Rivers will leave the Los Angeles Chargers at last. Soon, this offseason will be a torrent more unstoppable than Derrick Henry, so to slow things down, here are some guys to track.

Tom Brady

It's certainly an odd situation, but there is a chance that longtime Pats QB Tom Brady will leave his beloved Foxborough. If that happens, where will he go? One option is the Chargers, who are now in need of a quarterback. This is a great situation for Brady; promising offense, receiver depth, and a good running game. Predict a bounce-back year if he does end up in LA. That is the most likely destination for Brady, but he could also go to a team like the Dolphins or Jets who need a better quarterback. In that case, don't draft him unless either of those options sign some decent receivers and RBs.

Phillip Rivers

As said above, Rivers does not intend to play with the Chargers next season. If Brady goes to his old team, could the same thing happen in reverse? If the 38-year-old does sign with New England, his play will suffer the same fate as Brady's. He will have one, maybe two reliable options on the entire team. He'll rush throws, get sacked, and play even worse than he did last year. Same with Miami or New York-- things do not look appealing for a free agent QB. It's fairly safe to assume Rivers will not be a reliable fantasy starter-- or backup. (Or streaming option)

Chase Young

Young has not yet played a snap in the NFL, but he was a Heisman candidate DE at Ohio State. He was dominating and a huge piece of the university's playoff run. So even though he plays on defense, he'll doubtlessly have an impact in his rookie season on whatever D/ST he ends up with. But which one? Although the Washington Redskins have the #2 pick in the draft, there is a chance they will use Young's value to trade for other picks. Thus, the promising young player's future is unclear, but the bottom line is this: expect Young to improve poor defenses, and solidify good ones. But if he ends up on a team like the Dolphins, don't expect him to do everything.

The "Big Four"-- Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift, and J.K. Dobbins

The rookie class for running backs in 2020 has an astounding amount of talent. Leading the pack are these four stars. There's been a recent trend towards rookie RBs performing immediately, like Saquon Barkley, so we can expect them to do well. Etienne played for Clemson and was a key piece of their championship berth. Taylor has consistently been one of the best RBs in the country for the Wisconsin Badgers. Swift was the leader of the fabled Georgia backfield, who seems to always churn out new talents like Nick Chubb. J.K. Dobbins was another player who helped Ohio State to the CFP, and OSU has also produced some great rookies like Ezekiel Elliott. A lot of teams would like to get their hands on one of these promising players. The Redskins, if they trade the second pick, could draft him or one of the others.



Joe Burrow's Fantasy Potential

By Touchdown Kirk

1/21/20

It's too early to tell everything about the 2020 NFL season, but one thing that is almost a certainty is who Heisman-winning LSU QB Joe Burrow will play for next year.

The Cincinnati Bengals have secured the first overall pick in the draft, and they are likely to spend it on the superstar. Burrow was the backup to Dwayne Haskins at Ohio State before transferring to LSU. Haskins has proven himself to be a passable quarterback, improving the Redskins late in the season. But Burrow had a considerably more successful 2019, leading LSU to the national championship and snagging the Heisman Trophy by a landslide.

Overall, Burrow has definitely shown potential, but let's look at some of the factors that will affect his rookie season.

Pressure

Burrow is not exactly old. Although he has demonstrated a capability to perform in pressure situations, including facing one of the best defenses in the country in Clemson, the NFL obviously has considerably better defenses, some that Burrow will face twice as a Bengal. The Ravens and Steelers have good secondaries, and those are four pivotal games. So Burrow will probably have some difficulty adjusting. As an early fantasy suggestion, only trust him if he's performed in a similar situation. Say he's playing the Ravens for the second time this season. The first time he threw for 123 yards and a score, as well as two picks. Don't start him then. But if he's playing, say, the Eagles after performing against a defense with similar skill like the Dolphins, then you could throw him in there. But be cautious.

Support

It's no secret that Cincinnati is not a good team. After all, they do have the first pick in the draft. Their defense is atrocious, and their offensive line is a travesty. But they do have A.J. Green returning from injury next year, and he may be able to help Burrow adjust. In addition, he will also be able to rely on Joe Mixon, their RB who somehow performs despite the offensive line's lack of effectiveness, to help him through the year. A confident Burrow combined with Mixon and with weapons like Green and Auden Tate has terrifying potential. If that comes together, we could see defenses fold under the pressure from both passing and running. On the other hand, if the Bengals do not improve their OL, Green fails to bounce back, Tate busts, and Burrow cracks under pressure, the season will be a disaster. We'll just have to see how things go.

History

Young QBs have had mixed results in fantasy as of late. Let's look at a few.

Deshaun Watson-- This duel-threat QB won the title for Clemson and exploded immediately in fantasy. He is, however, a different QB than Burrow who uses his legs a lot more. So he may not have the same results as Watson.

Patrick Mahomes-- This Texas Tech player won MVP in his second year for the Chiefs, and he throws the ball a lot, just like Burrow. In addition, the Chiefs are a similar team in a way to the Bengals, with two solid wideouts and a reliable backfield.

Josh Rosen-- To represent the other end of the spectrum, here is an early first-round pick by the Cardinals who was traded to the Dolphins, then benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick. He was basically a disaster, and a lot of other young QBs have suffered the same ugly fate.

So it seems that Burrow is a risk worth taking, if you have a late-round pick available. You could keep him on your bench and see how he does, but DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES rely on him to carry your fantasy team. You'll need strong skill-position players to compliment him if you're playing Burrow early on.