Research

Publications

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Policy Foresight, (with Andreas-Entony Violaris, University of Illinois), Forthcoming at the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks - Do not rule out Central Bank Information Effects or Economic News, (with Italo Santos Morais, Boise State), Economics Letters, Volume 237, April 2024, 111634 

Government Spending between Active and Passive Monetary Policy: An Invariance Result, (with Collin Philipps, Air Force Academy), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 24, no. 1, 2024, pp. 561-590. 

Does the Government Spending Multiplier depend on the Business Cycle? (with Collin Philipps, Air Force Academy), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Early Access

Government Spending and Heterogeneous Consumption Dynamics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 114, May 2020, 103868

Working Paper

Monetary Policy Transmission Under Supply Chain Pressures, (with Matthew Schaffer, EMU), Under Review

    Abstract: This study examines how global supply chain conditions influence the transmission of US monetary policy during the pre-pandemic period. We find that elevated supply chain pressures amplify the standard effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic outcomes. This amplification arises from an intensification of the credit channel, as financial variables related to the cost of external finance become more sensitive to monetary policy when supply chain conditions are strained. Firm-level estimates of the investment response to monetary policy further support this conclusion. Despite the presence of outliers and other confounding factors, our findings hold when extending the sample beyond March 2020.

Analyzing the Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions on Inflation: A Comparative Study across Time and Countries, with Huachen Li (Kenyon College)

     Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented economic environment marked by extensive disruptions in global supply chains and soaring inflation rates. This paper studies the impact of supply chain disruptions on consumer price inflation and examines how the effect varies across time and countries. The results uncover that a global supply chain shock significantly raises consumer price inflation in the US, the Euro Area, and the UK. Notably, the effect is consistently positive, even before the COVID-19 pandemic, with the strongest impact occurring in the US and the mildest in the UK. Furthermore, this study finds that global supply chain shocks are important drivers of consumer price inflation in all three countries, accounting for 15 – 30 percent of the variation of consumer price inflation over a three-year horizon.