Research
My research revolves around the two major themes of electoral accountability and political participation. I focus on how electoral accountability works, and also study the incidence and implications of economic voting, polarization, populism, and partisanship. In a second avenue of research, I am interested in the dynamics of people’s decision to turn out to vote and join protests.
In addition, I have been active in doing research related to political behavior and public opinion formation in Turkey.
You can visit my Google Scholar page here.
Book
2019. Why Bother? Rethinking Participation in Elections and Protests (with Susan Stokes). New York: Cambridge University Press (Studies in Comparative Politics).
Winner of the 2020 David O. Sears Book Award of the International Society of Political Psychology
Why Bother? offers and tests a new theory about participation in politics and, in particular, why people vote and join protests. It develops the idea that just as there are costs of participation in politics, there are also costs of abstention - intrinsic and psychological, but no less real for that. See my book page for more details.
Journal Articles
2024. Developing-Country Representation and Public Attitudes toward International Organizations: The Case of IMF Governance Reform (with Daniel McDowell, David Steinberg, and Dimitar Gueorguiev). International Studies Quarterly. Published online July 10. Link PDF
2024. Voter Reaction to the Government's Refusal of Natural Disaster Assistance: Experimental Evidence from Turkey and India (with Osman S. Kiratli). International Political Science Review. Published online June 5. Link PDF
2024. Populist Appeals, Emotions, and Political Mobilization (with Ali Çarkoglu and Ezgi Elçi). American Behavioral Scientist. Published online March 28. Link PDF
2024. Economic Voting in the 2023 Turkish General Election. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 24(2): 363-381 (Special Issue). Link PDF
2023. Economic Insecurity and Voter Attitudes about Currency Crises (with David Steinberg). Studies in Comparative International Development. Published online August 22. Link PDF
2022. Cognitive Political Networks: A Structural Approach to Measure Political Polarization in Multiparty Systems (with Günes Ertan and Ali Çarkoglu). Social Networks 68: 118-126. Link PDF
2021. An Experimental Investigation of Voter Myopia in Economic Evaluations. Electoral Studies 74: 102393. Link PDF
2021. Effectiveness of Incumbent’s Strategic Communication during Economic Crisis under Electoral Authoritarianism: Evidence from Turkey. American Political Science Review 115(4): 1517-1523. Link PDF
2021. Terror Attacks, Issue Salience, and Party Competence: Diagnosing Shifting Vote Preferences in a Panel Study (with Ali Çarkoglu). Party Politics 27(4): 755-766. Link PDF
2021. Partisanship, Elite Messages, and Support for Populism in Power (with Ali Çarkoglu and Ezgi Elçi). European Political Science Review 13(1): 23-39. Link PDF
2020. Do Voters Respond to Relative Economic Performance? Evidence from Survey Experiments. Public Opinion Quarterly 84(2): 493-507. Link PDF
2020. Beyond Opportunity Costs: Campaign Messages, Anger, and Turnout among the Unemployed (with Eli Rau and Susan Stokes). British Journal of Political Science 50(4): 1325-1339. Link PDF
Covered in The New York Times
2020. Internet and Social Media Use and Political Knowledge: Evidence from Turkey (with Simge Andı and Ali Çarkoglu). Mediterranean Politics 25(5): 579-599. Link PDF
2019. Ethnicity and Religiosity-based Prejudice in Turkey: Evidence from a Survey Experiment (with Ali Çarkoglu). International Political Science Review 40(1): 58-72. Link PDF
2018. Relative Economic Performance and the Incumbent Vote: A Reference Point Theory. Journal of Politics 80(1): 16-29. Link PDF
Related media: The Monkey Cage
Scholarly dialogue: A Response to Arel-Bundock, Blais, and Dassonneville (2021)
2018. Presidents Shaping Public Opinion in Parliamentary Democracies: A Survey Experiment in Turkey (with Ali Çarkoglu). Political Behavior 40(2): 371-393. Link PDF
2018. Why Do People Join Backlash Protests? Lessons from Turkey (with Luis Schiumerini and Susan Stokes). Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(6): 1205-1228. Link PDF
2017. Protests and Repression in New Democracies (with Luis Schiumerini and Susan Stokes). Perspectives on Politics 15(1): 62-82. Link PDF
2017. Taking Sides: Determinants of Support for a Presidential System in Turkey (with Ali Çarkoglu and Kerem Yıldırım). South European Society and Politics 22(1): 1-20. Link PDF
2016. Why Some Countries Are Immune from the Resource Curse: The Role of Economic Norms (with Michael Mousseau and Ömer F. Örsün). Democratization 23(1): 71-92. Link PDF
2015. Who Gets Targeted for Vote-Buying? Evidence from an Augmented List Experiment in Turkey (with Ali Çarkoglu). European Political Science Review 7(4): 547-66. Link PDF
2014. Varieties of Populism in a Changing Global Context: The Divergent Paths of Erdogan and Kirchnerismo (with Ziya Önis). Comparative Politics 47(1): 41-59. Link PDF
2014. Distributive Politics in a Multiparty System: The Conditional Cash Transfer System in Turkey. Comparative Political Studies 47(9): 1211-37. Link PDF
Book Chapters
2022. Costly Abstention (with Susan Stokes). In Marco Giugni and Maria Grasso (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Participation. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 763-780. Link PDF
2022. Economic Voting during the AKP Era in Turkey. In Günes Murat Tezcür (ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Turkish Politics. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 319-340. Link PDF
2022. Religiosity and Political Attitudes in Turkey during the AKP Era. In Melani Cammett and Pauline Jones (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Politics in Muslim Societies. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 335-353. Link PDF
2021. The Economic Vote in the 2018 Turkish General Election. In Ali Çarkoglu and Ersin Kalaycıoglu (eds.), Elections and Public Opinion in Turkey: Through the Prism of the 2018 Elections. London: Routledge, pp. 122-132. Link
2021. Voter Mobilization in the 2018 Turkish General Election (with Özge Kemahlıoglu). In Ali Çarkoglu and Ersin Kalaycıoglu (eds.), Elections and Public Opinion in Turkey: Through the Prism of the 2018 Elections.London: Routledge, pp. 157-168. Link PDF
2019. Populism in Turkey (with Ezgi Elçi). In Daniel Stockemer (ed.), Populism around the World: A Comparative Perspective. Cham: Springer, pp. 89-108. Link PDF
2018. Political Parties and Public Policy in Turkey. In Caner Bakır and Günes Ertan (eds.), Policy Analysis in Turkey. Bristol, UK: Policy Press, pp. 183-197. Link
Reports
Türkiye'de Bireysel Bagısçılık ve Hayırseverlik 2021 [Individual Giving and Philanthropy in Turkey 2021]. TÜSEV Yayınları, Nisan [April] 2022. Link (Turkish) Report (Turkish) Link (English) Report (English)
Türkiye'de Bireysel Bagısçılık ve Hayırseverlik 2019 [Individual Giving and Philanthropy in Turkey 2019]. TÜSEV Yayınları, Nisan [April] 2020. Link (Turkish) Report (Turkish) Link (English) Report (English)
Türkiye'de Bireysel Bagısçılık ve Hayırseverlik [Individual Giving and Philanthropy in Turkey]. TÜSEV Yayınları, Eylül [September] 2016. Link (Turkish) Report (Turkish) Link (English) Report (English)
Other
Why protest? (with Susan Stokes). Lead essay for The Wilson Quarterly. Winter 2020. Link
Americans just set a turnout record for the midterms, voting at the highest rate since 1914. This explains why (with Susan Stokes). Monkey Cage, The Washington Post. November 20, 2018. Link
Germany's strong economy didn't help Angela Merkel at the polls. This is why. Monkey Cage, The Washington Post. November 2, 2017. Link
People who protest almost certainly vote (with Susan Stokes and Eli Rau). Monkey Cage, The Washington Post. February 6, 2017. Link
Trump supporters vastly overestimate unemployment - and they blame politicians for it (with Susan Stokes and Eli Rau). Monkey Cage, The Washington Post. November 2, 2016. Link
Donald Trump's message of fear may mobilize Americans to vote (but not necessarily for him) (with Susan Stokes). Monkey Cage, The Washington Post. July 25, 2016. Link