Books:

External Validity and Evidence Accumulation (with Tara Slough). 2024. Cambridge University Press: Elements in Quantitative and Computational Methods for the Social Sciences.

Peer-Reviewed Publications:

20. Soft Power as Constituency Cultivation (with Ethan Kapstein and Audrye Wong). 2025. The Journal of Politics, forthcoming. Supplemental Materials

19. Demanding More than What You Want (with Zuheir Desai). 2025.  Political Science Research and Methods, forthcoming. Supplemental Materials.

18. Partisan Leaning (with Zuheir Desai and Anderson Frey). 2025. American Political Science Review, forthcoming. Supplemental Materials.

17. Constraining to Deter (with Livio Di Lonardo). 2024. American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming. Supplemental Materials.

16. Sign-Congruence, External Validity, and Replication (with Tara Slough). 2024. Political Analysis, 33 (3): 195 - 210.  Supplemental Materials

15. The Punisher's Dilemma (with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, David P. Myatt, & Alastair Smith). 2024. The Journal of Politics, 86 (2): 395-411. Supplemental Materials 

14. External Validity and Meta-Analysis (with Tara Slough). 2023. American Journal of Political Science, 67 (2): 440-455. Supplemental Materials 

13. The Peaceful Transfer of Power and the Social Contract. 2023. The Journal of Politics, 85 (1): 125-138. Supplemental Materials 

12. The Concreteness of Social Knowledge and the Quality of Democratic Choice (with Kai Ou). 2023.  Political Science Research and Methods, 11 (3): 482-500. Supplemental Materials. 

11. Cross-Workshop Reflections. 2022. PS: Political Science & Politics, 55 (3): 561-563.

10. Sowing the Seeds: Radicalization as a Political Tool (with Todd C. Lehmann). 2022. American Journal of Political Science, 66 (2): 485-500. Supplemental Materials. 

9. Political Instability and the Failure of Deterrence (with Livio Di Lonardo). 2022. The Journal of Politics, 84 (1): 180-193. Supplemental Materials. 

8. Autocratic Stability in the Shadow of Foreign Threats (with Livio Di Lonardo & Jessica S. Sun). 2020. American Political Science Review, 114 (4): 1247-1265. Supplemental Materials. 

7. The Commensurability Problem: Conceptual Difficulties in Estimating the Effect of Behavior on Behavior (with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita). 2020. American Political Science Review, 114 (2):  375-391. 

6. The Strategic Foundations of Political Sovereignty. 2020. The Journal of Politics, 82 (2): 657-670. Supplemental Appendix.

5. The Agency Problem Underlying Repression. 2018. The Journal of Politics, 80 (4): 1297–1310. Supplemental Appendix.

4. Dual-Layered Coordination and Political Instability (with Alastair Smith). 2018. The Journal of Politics, 80 (1): 44-58. Supplemental Appendix.

3. Coercive Leadership (with Dimitri Landa). 2017. American Journal of Political Science, 61 (3): 559-574. Supplemental Appendix.

2. Information Acquisition, Strategic Voting, and Improving the Quality of Democratic Choice. 2016. The Journal of Politics, 78 (4): 1016-1031. Supplemental Appendix.

1. Popular Protest and Elite Coordination in a Coup Detat (with Brett Allen Casper). 2014. The Journal of Politics, 76 (2) : 548-564. Supplemental Appendix.

Other Publications:

Formal Theory: Strategies of Authoritarian Survival and Power (with Jack Paine). 2024. The Oxford Handbook of Authoritarian Politics

Uses and Abuses of Formal Models in Political Science (with Jack Paine). 2020. SAGE Handbook of Political Science: A Global Perspective, Chapter 11.

Working Papers:

To Fight or to Govern? Political Capital and Electoral  Competition  (with Catherine Hafer and Congyi Zhou). 2025. (conditionally accepted at American Journal of Political Science).

Repression and Autocratic Consolidation (with Livio Di Lonardo & Jessica S. Sun). 2025.

Mechanisms: Inference and Attribution (with Tara Slough). 2025.

Backlash (with Emily Hencken Ritter and Jessica S. Sun). 2025.

Protect the Brand (with Livio Di Lonardo and Giovanna Invernizzi). 2024.

Eager Hearts and Radicalized Minds (with Livio Di Lonardo and Jessica S. Sun). 2024.

The Policymaker's Problem (with Tara Slough). 2024.

Articulation: Models as Conceptual Engineering. 2025.

The Coordination Problem Underlying Repression. 2024.

Assignment Mechanisms in Quasi-Experimental Designs (with Jessica S. Sun). 2024.