Research
Submitted
"State-building on the margin: An urban experiment in Medellín" (with Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan and Benjamin Lessing). [NBER Working Paper | SocArXiv Working Paper | Outreach: Nota de Política EAFIT, EDI Essay Series, EDI Research Videos, EDI Research Insights]
"Gang rule: Understanding and countering criminal governance" (with Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan and Benjamin Lessing). [NBER Working Paper | SocArXiv Working Paper | Outreach: Twitter thread (English), Twitter thread (Spanish), Twitter thread (Portuguese), Nota de Política EAFIT, Webinar with key stakeholders, EDI Research Videos, EDI Research Insights, El Tiempo, Caracol Radio, El Colombiano, Foco Económico]
Revision requested
"Criminal capital persistence: Evidence from 90,000 inmates’ releases," R&R Journal of Development Economics. (with Maria A. Escobar and Martin Vanegas-Arias)[Working paper]
Forthcoming
"Do better prisons reduce recidivism? Evidence from a prison construction program," forthcoming Review of Economics and Statistics. [Paper | Replication | Outreach: El Espectador, Razón Pública]
"Broken windows policing and crime: Evidence from 80 Colombian cities," forthcoming in Buonanno, P., Vanin, P. and Vargas, J. (Eds.) A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime (with Daniel Mejía, Ervyn Norza and Martín Vanegas-Arias). [Invited chapter | Working paper]
Selected publications
(2021) "Community policing in the developing world," Science, 374(6571), 1046-1047. [Invited, perspectives section | Perspective]
(2021) "Place-based interventions at scale: The direct and spillover effects of policing and city services on crime," Journal of the European Economic Association, 19(4), 2022-2051 (with Chris Blattman, Donald Green and Daniel Ortega). [Paper | Online appendix | Teaching materials | Outreach: J-PAL Policy Reports]
(2021) "The Deterrent Effects of Surveillance Cameras on Crime," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 40(2), 553-571 (with Santiago Gómez and Daniel Mejía). [Paper]
(2021) "Hot Spots Policing in a High Crime Environment: An Experimental Evaluation in Medellín," Journal of Experimental Criminology, 17, 473–506 (with Daniela Collazos, Eduardo García, Daniel Mejía and Daniel Ortega). [Paper]
(2020) "Meta-Analysis of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Major Histocompatibility Complex Class II Deficiency," Pediatric Transplantation, 24(6), e13774 (with Lina Castano-Jaramillo, Jose Bareno-Silva and Andres Escobar-Gonzalez). [Paper | Outreach: Twitter thread]
(2018) "The role of land property rights in the war on illicit crops: Evidence from Colombia" World Development, 103, 268-283 (with Juan Carlos Muñoz and Jesse D'Anjou). [Paper | Outreach: IDS Policy Briefings]
Selected work in progress
"Gangs of Medellín: How organized crime is organized" (with Chris Blattman, Gustavo Duncan and Ben Lessing)
"Gang entry and exit: Behavioral biases and gang recruitment" (with Chris Blattman, Maria Rodríguez-Uribe and Pierre Luc Vautrey)
"Organized crime in Rio de Janeiro: Understanding non-state provision of order and justice" (with Benjamin Lessing and Joana Monteiro)
"Improving human decisions through machine learning: An experiment to reduce crime by selecting inmates better" (with Daniel Mejía and the Office of the Attorney General of Colombia)
Other scholarly writing
(2021) "Crises conducting stakeholder salience: Shifts in the evolution of private universities' governance in Latin America," Corporate Governance, 21(6), 1194-1214 (with Maria Alejandra Gonzalez-Perez, Miguel Cordova, Erica Salvaj, Santiago Mingo, Carlos Rodriguez, Karla María Nava-Aguirre, Michel Hermans, Fabiola Monje Cueto and Dinorá Floriani). [Paper]
(2019) "El gasto fiscal de la guerra contra los portadores de drogas ilícitas: Una aproximación para Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, 91, 79-116 (with Isabel Gutiérrez). [Paper]
(2018) "La situación del narcotráfico en Colombia ad portas del posconflicto," Contribuciones de la Universidad a la Agenda de La Habana, Edited by: Jorge Giraldo. Ed: Universidad EAFIT (with Isabel Gutiérrez and Gustavo Duncan). [Chapter]
(2017) "El Ciclo Criminal del Microtráfico y Consumo de Drogas: Contexto Nacional y Consecuencias en Entornos Locales," Territorios y Sociabilidades Violentas: Santo Domingo, San Juan, Sao Paulo, Cali y Medellin. Edited by: Jorge Giraldo. Ed: Universidad EAFIT (with Isabel Gutiérrez). [Chapter]
(2017) "Evaluación y seguimiento a las actividades de la policía de vigilancia," Gestión Territorial de la Seguridad en el Posconflicto. Edited by: Isabel Gutiérrez. Ed: Universidad EAFIT y Escuela de Postgrados de Policía, Policía Nacional (with Isabel Gutiérrez). [Chapter]
(2016) "La inversión obligatoria y el crédito agropecuario en Colombia," El desarrollo equitativo, competitivo y sostenible del sector agropecuario en Colombia. Edited by: Carlos Gustavo Cano, Ana María Iregui, Maria Teresa Ramírez & Ana María Tribín. Ed: Banco de la República (with Dairo Estrada and Paula Zuleta). [Chapter]
(2014) "The Rational Expectations Hypothesis: An Assessment on its Real World Application," Ecos de Economía: A Latin American Journal of Applied Economics, 18(37), 37-47. [Paper]
(2013) "Instituciones y cultivos ilícitos," Economía criminal y poder político, Edited by: Jorge Giraldo. Ed: Universidad EAFIT. [Chapter]
(2013) "Impuesto predial y desarrollo económico. Aproximación a la relación entre el impuesto predial y la inversión de los municipios de Antioquia," Ecos de Economía: A Latin American Journal of Applied Economics, 17(36), 173-198 (with Juan Carlos Muñoz). [Paper]