REFUGEDEV

Photo: Refugee Camp Maratane, Northern Mozambique

Globally, nearly one in every 100 humans is now either a refugee or internally displaced. Over 95% of the refugee population is concentrated in the developing world, 60% of which are in fragile states. The 36 most fragile countries in the world account for 2.6% of global GDP but host 71% of the world’s population of forcibly displaced people. This stands in contrast to the 4% of world refugees currently hosted by the US or the 5% of refugees seeking asylum in Europe. The number of refugees in the developing world is only expected to increase with worsening conflict in several countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This trend poses dramatic and immediate economic challenges to low-income, fragile states in the developing world, while increasing the threat of economic and political instability in the developed world due to growing immigration and demand for asylum. Recent events have showcased that managing refugee flows may be a defining challenge of our time. At the heart of this challenge is the (lack of) economic integration of refugees into the country of first asylum in the short-run, and into their country of origin in the long-run.

The main objectives of REFUGEDEV are to understand the drivers of integration of refugees into host economies in the developing world and the long-term impact of forced displacement on the socioeconomic outcomes of repatriated refugees and internally displaced individuals once conflict subsides.

Partners: United Nations Refugee Agency , International Growth Centre

Working Papers:

Forced Displacement and Human Capital, with Giorgio Chiovelli, Stelios Michalopolous and Elias Papaioannou ; VoxDev, R&R Quarterly Journal of Economics

We examine the impact of conflict-driven displacement on human capital looking at the Mozambican civil war (1977-1992), during which more than four million civilians fled to the countryside, to cities, and to refugee camps and settlements in neighboring countries. First, we present descriptive patterns linking education and sectoral employment to the various displacement trajectories using the full population census. Second, we compare siblings separated during the war, using those who stayed behind as a counterfactual to one's displacement path. Displacement is associated with increased educational investments, with the largest effects experienced by rural-born children escaping to urban areas. Third, we jointly estimate place-based and uprootedness effects. Both are present, with displacement increasing education and decreasing attachment to agriculture by the same rate as being exposed to an environment approximately one standard deviation more developed than one's birthplace. Fourth, we conduct a survey in Mozambique's largest Northern city, whose population doubled during the civil war. Those displaced to the city have significantly higher education than their siblings who remained in the countryside and they converged to the levels of schooling of non-mover urban born individuals. However, those displaced exhibit significantly lower social/civic capital and have worse mental health, even three decades after the war ended. These findings reveal that displacement shocks can trigger human capital investments, breaking links with subsistence agriculture, but at the cost of long-lasting, social, and psychological traumas.

Financial Security, Climate Shocks and Social Cohesion

(with Theresa Beltramo, Florence Nimoh and Matt O'Brien)

We examine the link between financial security and social cohesion, in a low-income setting where cohesion is crucial: the integration of refugees into ultra-poor host communities in the developing world. We first generate an exogenous shock to financial security by implementing a field experiment of a large cash transfer and employment support program. Increasing financial security of both refugees and hosts leads to higher levels of trust, new friendships with out-groups, a greater willingness to share resources with out-groups and a stronger sense of belonging for refugees (our overall social integration index increased by 0.74 standard deviations relative to the control group). We then exploit a negative shock to financial security in the form of a climate event: two years later, a category three tropical cyclone caused damage to some houses and crops. Consistent with a causal interpretation of the relationship between financial security and social cohesion, participants who experienced even a moderate reduction in their financial security reported a disproportionately large weakening of social cohesion (by 0.23 standard deviations). Levels of trust and willingness to share resources persisted for those not affected by the cyclone. Taken together, these findings suggest that individuals can shift between cooperative and competitive mindsets in response to their experiences. On the one hand, providing social protection to both refugees and low-income host community members can lead to more cooperative attitudes and behaviors, thus promoting socioeconomic integration. However, these gains are fragile and easily undone when individuals are exposed to negative climate shocks that make scarcity top of mind again.

Policy Papers

UNHCR, Blog Post 1

UNHCR Blog Post 2

Documentary

Community Interrupted, written and produced by Sandra Sequeira and co-directed with Franco Sacchi

TRAILER

Official selection

The Art of Brooklyn Film Festival

Toronto Documentary Feature and Short Film Festival

Documentaries without Borders International Film Festival

Montreal Independent Film Festival

Indie Short Fest (finalist, Best Documentary)