Welcome to my website!
I am a Ph.D. Candidate in Economics at the University of Mannheim.
My research interests are international trade, development economics, and economic geography.
I hold a Master’s degree in International and Development Economics from the Australian National University and a Bachelor’s degree in Regional and City Planning from Bandung Institute of Technology in Indonesia.
Job Market Paper
Quantifying the Effects of Commodity Booms on Regional and Sectoral Outcomes
Abstract: Commodity demand shocks in the global market can have persistent effects on economic outcomes of commodity-exporting countries. In this paper, I study the regional and sectoral effects of commodity booms. To quantify the aggregate and regional effects of commodity booms, I develop a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that accounts for sectoral linkages, internal migration, and externalities in manufacturing sectors. I calibrate the model to the Indonesian economy and simulate the response to the commodity boom that the country experienced in the 2000-2011 period. First, I find that while the commodity boom increases aggregate GDP during the boom period, it reduces long-term welfare. Second, the impact is heterogeneous across regions. While the lagging regions gain from the commodity boom, industrialized regions experience a decline in employment and GDP. The surge in commodity exports leads to a decline in manufacturing GDP in both regions. Third, I also show that dynamic externalities in manufacturing can amplify the long-term effects of commodity booms on manufacturing GDP. Overall, the counterfactual analysis indicates that commodity booms can significantly alter the spatial distribution of economic activities and may hinder industrialization in commodity-exporting countries.
Working Paper
The Impact of Resource Demand Shocks on Manufacturing: Evidence from Plant-Level Data
Abstract: I estimate the impact of palm oil demand shocks on manufacturing firms in Indonesia, using plant-level data from 2000 to 2015. To identify regional shocks, I apply a shift-share design that exploits district-level variations in potential crop yields. I find that the palm oil boom positively affects the vegetable oil industry in regions with high exposure to the boom. To investigate potential crowding-out effects in the input market, I construct a measure of input similarity based on input-output data at the sector level. During the boom, firms in the sectors that use inputs similar to those in the vegetable oil industry experienced slower growth in both sales and labor productivity. These effects persist even after the boom period ends. The results remain robust after controlling for firms that use inputs from the vegetable oil industry. Overall, my findings suggest that the palm oil boom leads to crowding-out effects in the intermediate input market.
Work in Progress
Firm Responses to Industrial Policy: Evidence from Local Content Requirement (LCR) Policy
Abstract: I study the effects of industrial policy on firm-level outcomes. Specifically, I examine the impact of local content requirements (LCR) in the telecommunications sector, where LCR policies have been in place since 2006. These requirements mandate that firms in targeted sectors source a minimum level or type of domestically produced inputs. Using manufacturing census data from 2000 to 2015, I aim to estimate the effects of LCR on the upstream sectors of the targeted industry. To measure firms' exposure to this policy, I use plant-level input-output data. Further analysis will also assess the effects on firm outcomes within the targeted sector.
Publications (Pre-PhD)
Electricity subsidy reform in Indonesia: Demand-side effects on electricity use
(with Paul J. Burke) Energy Policy, 2018.
Education in Indonesia: A White Elephant?
(with Daniel Suryadarma, Luhur Bima, and Asri Yusrina) In H. Hill & S. Negara (Eds.), The Indonesian Economy in Transition: Policy Challenges in the Jokowi Era and Beyond. Singapore: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. 2019.
Contact Information
Department of Economics
University of Mannheim
L7, 3-5
68161 Mannheim
Germany
Email: sandra.kurniawati (at) uni-mannheim.de