According to my research...
When people are made to think about nudges, they can use them better.
According to my research...
When people are made to think about nudges, they can use them better.
Submitted manuscripts
(*before title indicates where I am lead author)
(^ before title indicates work of my PhD supervisee)
*Behavioural and Economic Policies for a Sustainable Dietary Transition (Under review in Journal of Cleaner Food Systems).
Working Paper available upon request.
Abstract: Current food choices have a high environmental footprint, rendering them incompatible with both climate objectives and broader sustainable development goals. Transitioning to "planetary health diets" is important and required at scale urgently. In this chapter, I present an overview of the current food policy landscape using my newly proposed EATPath Toolspace, which as the name suggests, outlines food policies along different stages of the food demand, namely purchase, consumption and waste. I highlight three main challenges to this toolspace, before proposing newer behavioural and economic policy alternatives. First, I highlight that food policy has predominantly favoured softer approaches, such as behavioural "nudges", which subtly alter choice environments without imposing bans or raising costs. While behavioural insights can be effective, scaling them has limitations, often also raising ethical concerns regarding their use. To overcome this challenge, I argue in favour of a modified toolkit, nudge+, which embeds reflection into the design of (food) nudges making them effective and more ethical. Second, I highlight the need to urgently price meat and dairy more accurately by means of economic fiscal policies, such as meat taxes, voluntary carbon offsets, and subjecting the agricultural sector to tradable emission quotas. Lastly, I highlight the need to adopt a more open-minded approach to policy combinations and sequences, underscoring the value of leveraging policy complementarities and synergies between both behavioural and economic policies. If we are to seriously address the climate crisis and mitigate the emissions associated with livestock, urgent action is required. The time to act is now.
Political divide in support for a meat tax (Revise & Resubmit to Environmental Politics). Joint with Meike Morren, Ainslee Lynn Erhard, Matteo M Galizzi.
Working Paper available upon request.
Abstract: Meat consumption and willingness to reduce it may be linked to political ideology, with a common assumption that left-leaning individuals favour meat reduction policies more than right-leaning ones. However, rigorous evidence is lacking on this point. This study examines whether support for meat reduction policies varies by self-reported political ideology. Using a conjoint experiment with nationally representative samples from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK (N=2,008), we randomly vary four attributes of a hypothetical meat tax: cost, revenue redistribution, motivation, and outreach. We find that right-wing voters support a baseline meat tax more than left-wing voters, but their support decreases when policies involve revenue redistribution, incorporate environmental costs, or emphasize environmental over health concerns. These patterns are partly explained by differences in Schwartz values across ideological groups. Our findings highlight the role of narratives in shaping political debates on meat taxation.
Stringent policies are associated with greater COVID-19 vaccine uptake including among skeptics (Revise & Resubmit in Political Studies). Joint with Peter John, Andrew Hunter, Peter Loewen, Manu Savani, Brendan Nyhan, John McAndrews, Blake Lee-Whiting and Richard Koenig.
Working Paper available upon request.
Abstract: Are stringent vaccine promotion policies associated with higher uptake, even when people are hesitant about the vaccine? In a survey of G-7 countries, 22% of respondents (n=42,217) say they do not trust the COVID-19 vaccine, but half of them nonetheless take up at least one vaccination. We investigate a range of factors associated with vaccination, focusing on the stringency of vaccine promotion policies, which change the costs and benefits of immunization choices. We show that living in a country with more stringent vaccination policies is positively associated with uptake of the initial vaccination protocol, including among people who are skeptical about the vaccine. The association between policy stringency and uptake of the booster vaccine is also positive among those who are skeptical about the vaccine. However, this association is not differentially stronger compared to the group who trust the vaccine. Our findings suggest that policy stringency can play a key role in vaccine uptake. Our findings raise questions for policymakers, in finding the appropriate balance between persuasive and coercive policies to promote policy goals.
BriDGE the gap – improving Behavioural research by integrating DAGs and GAMs in Experiments. Joint with Giuseppe A Veltri (Under review in Behavioural Research Methods)
Working Paper available upon request.
Abstract: Understanding the mechanisms through which behavioural interventions work remains a critical challenge in behavioural science. While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide reliable evidence for intervention efficacy, they are seldom designed to reveal the underlying causal pathways that drive observed outcomes. We introduce a comprehensive data-driven methodological protocol -- BriDGE -- that combines advanced causal inference techniques, such as Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), causal discovery algorithms, and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), to enhance mechanistic insights in behavioural applications. BriDGE modifies conventional experimental analysis with a stepwise approach including DAG-based hypothesis formulation, modelling of nonlinear relationships with GAMs, and detailed mediation analysis. Using bootstrapping and sensitivity checks, BriDGE ensures robust and reliable detection of both direct and indirect effects. We use a simulation study to validate BriDGE's ability to identify complex causal mechanisms, offering researchers with a robust framework for deepening understanding of causal mechanisms and optimizing intervention design. There are natural limitations of BriDGE -- we discuss their implications when applied to public policy. We call for a greater integration of these methods in the toolkit of applied policy analysis to bridge the gap from “what works" to “why and how it works".
Unpacking the Side Effects of Behavioural Policies. Joint with Julien Picard (Resubmitted to Ecological Economics)
Working Paper available upon request.
Abstract: Several studies show that ”soft” environmental policies can alter non-targeted de-cisions. Still unknown is whether such spillovers are caused by merely doing thetargeted pro-environmental action or if they are a pure by-product of policies. Eachchannel has different policy implications. We model the mechanisms underpinningboth channels and provide experimental evidence for their existence. Surveying 5557 English respondents, we test if a social norm message promoting vegetarianism altersa non-targeted action: environmental donations. We find three core results. First, social norm messaging effectively increases vegetarian choices, but not uniformly.A subgroup identified with machine learning drives this effect. Second, using an instrumental variable, we find that choosing vegetarian food increases donations, providing evidence for the behavioural channel. Third, the nudge reduces donationsfor the subgroup identified with machine learning, providing evidence for the policychannel. Our results suggest social norm messaging works at the risk of crowding out further pro-environmental decisions.
Do Defaults harmonize Our Food Choices? A Systematic Data Review of Default Effects Across Socio-Demographic groups. Joint with Dominic Lemken, Aline Simonetti and Paul Lohmann. (Under review in Nature Food)
Working Paper available upon request.
Abstract: Food policy often struggles to reach diverse population groups, and well-intentioned interventions can sometimes exacerbate inequalities along socio-demographic groups. This systematic review examines whether default nudges in food choices have consistent effects across different socio-demographic groups, or whether their impact varies depending on factors such as education level, age, and gender. Using primary data from 12 studies (N = 40 interaction effects), we analyzed how age, gender, and education moderate the effectiveness of defaults compared to active choice conditions. Results show no consistent and rarely any interaction effects, suggesting defaults influence food decisions similarly across socio-demographic groups. A possible exception is that harmful defaults may be more effective among less educated individuals. These findings highlight default nudges as a broadly equitable behavioral tool in food policy design.
*Behavioural Environmental Economics & Policy: a behavioural turn in environmental policymaking. (A book chapter for Busara)
Working Paper available upon request.
Abstract: Behavioural Environmental Economics and Policy (BEEP) is an interdisciplinary field that brings behavioural insights into economics and public policy to better understand and address environmental challenges. Confronting wicked problems such as climate change and biodiversity loss requires moving beyond assumptions of fully rational decision-making and recognising the boundedly rational ways in which people actually behave. This chapter positions BEEP as a cohesive and emerging agenda. It traces its intellectual lineage, reviews key applications, and demonstrates its potential to enhance the effectiveness and legitimacy of large-scale environmental programmes. Finally, it calls for the systematic integration of behavioural science into environmental policy design and implementation, arguing that such an approach is essential for accelerating a just and sustainable transition.
Retired working papers
(*before title indicates where I am lead author)
A clash of norms? Experimental evaluation of cultural framing in promoting low-carbon diets. Joint with Julien Picard (Revise & Resubmit in npj Climate Action).
Working Paper available upon request.
Abstract: Vegetarian diets can reduce global ecological costs. Yet meat continues to be culturally dominant, especially in the West. Does culture hamper the adoption of vegetarian diets? In an online experiment, we observed the intentions of 2,775 English participants to choose vegetarian food. We causally test if framing food options with culturally familiar names alters the effectiveness of a nudge promoting vegetarianism. Facing culturally familiar food does not change the effect of the nudge. However, exploratory analyses reveal that participants ask for lower monetary compensation for being forced to choose vegetarian food when it is culturally framed. Thus, welfare losses of hard policies, like bans, may be lower when alternative options look familiar.
*Embedding the default in a multiple-choice list increases opting out. Joint with Peter John and Mollie Gerver.
Working Paper available on SSRN: 10.2139/ssrn.4551862
Abstract: Behavioural nudges, such as defaults, improve human welfare by reducing choice overload. But how far should policy-makers go in reducing available choices? Using a preregistered, online survey experiment, we randomly assign 1,518 UK citizens to two versions of the same opt-out default nudge aimed at encouraging charitable donations. In one version, the default was embedded in a list of multiple options, whereas in the other it was presented as a single choice. In both versions, participants could opt-out and choose any preferred donation amount. We find that when the default is embedded in a multiple-choice list, opting out rates and average individual donations are significantly higher compared to the standard single-choice default. Our findings suggest that encouraging active choosing alongside a default can improve agency without necessarily deteriorating behavioural outcomes.
Detect and Reject: Using JavaScript to Remove VPN Users from Survey Research. Joint with Blake Lee-Whiting*, Peter John, Andrew Hunter, Peter Loewen, Manu Savani, Brendan Nyhan, John McAndrews, and Richard Koenig.
Working Paper available upon request.
Abstract: Respondents from around the world are financially incentivized to complete surveys in higher paying markets, and some respondents are even willing to falsify their credentials to do so. We propose a new cost-free method for identifying and excluding non-target respondents who see blank JavaScript-programmed experiments due to VPN usage. Using a dataset of 72,200 respondents in the G-7 countries, we show that 94 respondents (0.13\%) in our entire G-7 sample and 49 respondents (0.49\%) who report being from the United States are likely using virtual private networks (VPNs) to disguise their locations to qualify for surveys outside of their country. These non-target respondents provide low-quality responses, affecting external validity. Simple JavaScript programming can reject this rare type of non-target respondent from surveys administered using Qualtrics.
Ongoing book
Nudge+. Think, before you nudge (under contract with Palgrave Macmillan, forthcoming in January 2026). Joint with Peter John.
Behavioural Environmental Economics and Policy (under contract with Routledge, forthcoming in December 2026). Joint with Lory Barile.