Estimates of Macroeconomic Stars
-- Zaman, Saeed. 2024. “A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 21-23R
-- Latest version: https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202123r2
-- Forthcoming: The Review of Economics and Statistics
https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01570
Latest estimates of Stars (and output gap):
-- updated February 23, 2026, based on data through 2025Q4 for all series, except labor productivity growth for which an estimate of 2.7% (quarterly annualized) is used; 2.7% is computed as the average productivity growth from 2023Q1 through 2025Q3.
-- Next update is March 5th, following the release of 2025Q4 productivity data.
Download the latest historical time series of stars (and other objects of interest)
Next update: March 5th, 2026.
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