Renewable Energy Transition in the Pacific: One Size Doesn’t Fit All

By: Sabrina Bedjera

Climate change impacts are far reaching, but Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs) are some of the most vulnerable, facing risks including coastal flooding, tropical cyclones, and other related impacts. 

PICTs account for a small percentage of global greenhouse emissions, estimated at below 0.05%. Despite this, many PICTs are targeting ambitious renewable energy goals. For example, Fiji and Solomon Islands have committed to 100% renewable energy by 2035 and 2050 respectively (World Bank, 2026). 

So why are PICTs transitioning their energy systems to renewable energy? PICTs are currently dependent on imported fossil fuels which makes them vulnerable to fuel shortages and price volatility (refer to Oil-Generated Power section for more details). Further, PICTs are impacted by high electricity costs and some PICTs have limited access to electricity (see Electricity Access section). Renewable energy could help address these challenges, but transitions across PICTs may require different pathways. PICTs are spread throughout the Pacific and vary considerably in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, and resources.

Oil-Generated Power 

PICTs have historically been dependent on oil for their power generation and many rely on imported fuel. Research has shown that PICTs are economically impacted by oil shocks, which can negatively affect GDP. For instance, a 50% increase in real oil prices is associated with a loss of up to 4% in GDP in the hardest-hit economies (CSIS, 2026). 

The visual below outlines the percentage of power generated from oil from 2013 – 2022 alongside GDP.  Overall, PICTs' share of power generated from oil generally decreased over time, but this trend does not hold for every PICT. 

Electricity Access

In 2020, most PICTs had high levels of electricity access (e.g. Tonga, Fiji, and Cook Islands). However, for a few PICTs, less than 70% of the population had access to electricity, including Papua New Guinea (60%). 

In Papua New Guinea, access to electricity is lower in rural areas and rural grid access is limited. Therefore, expanding renewable energy systems could help increase electricity access in rural areas. These energy systems could support both grid and off-grid electrification (World Bank, 2017). 

Renewable and Oil-Generated Power 

There is a strong rationale for why PICTs should transition towards renewable energy systems. This can help reduce their oil reliance and could help expand electricity access. But how is the renewable energy transition currently progressing in PICTs? 

The data below shows a snapshot of renewable and oil-generated power from 2018 – 2023, highlighting variations in power generation across PICTs. Tokelau has a low share of oil-generated power (6%) and a high share of renewable energy (94%). However, most PICTs have lower renewable energy shares than Tokelau and are still dependent on oil-generated power such as Tonga (87%). 

Renewable Electrical Capacity

Despite PICTs' dependence on oil-generated power,  many have ambitious renewable energy goals and are actively building renewable electrical capacity. Electrical capacity provides a measure of the infrastructure that PICTs have built to generate renewable energy. The data below shows PICTs' renewable electrical capacity for 2025 divided into off-grid and on-grid shares.

Several PICTs have significant shares of off-grid renewable electrical capacity, including Kiribati (56%), and Papua New Guinea (34%). Papua New Guinea has dispersed rural populations and expanding off-grid renewable energy systems could help increase electricity access.

In comparison, some PICTs have minimal off-grid  renewable electrical capacity, such as Tonga (4%). Even with its lower off-grid shares, Tonga's investments have provided funding for additional off-grid infrastructure including mini-grids (Green Climate Fund, 2018). This highlights that current energy infrastructure does not always reflect PICTs' future energy needs and may need to evolve as renewable energy transitions progress. 

Renewable Electrical Capacity Categories

Renewable electrical capacity can be further divided into renewable energy sources. In 2025, the dominant source of renewable electrical capacity for most PICTs was solar energy followed by hydropower. Geothermal capacity was only present in Papua New Guinea (13%).

Case Study

Papua New Guinea and Tonga are contrasted below to highlight how PICTs may require different approaches to their renewable energy transitions. Papua New Guinea is one of the largest PICTs, with a population of over 10 million and a land area of 452,860 km², and a highly dispersed population. In contrast, Tonga is a smaller PICT, with a population of 104,613 and a land area of  720 km². 

Tonga and Papua New Guinea have significant differences in their renewable energy systems. Tonga's population has full electricity access, and its energy targets focus on reaching 70% renewable energy by 2030. In contrast, Papua New Guinea has only 60% electricity access and aims to achieve full access by 2050. Tonga is currently reliant on oil-generated power and has a smaller share of renewable power (13%). Papua New Guinea is less dependent on oil-generated power (47%) and has a higher share of renewable power generation (36%).

Tonga has a small share of off-grid renewable electrical capacity (4%), while Papua New Guinea has a higher share (34%). Similar to most PICTs, Tonga's dominant renewable capacity is solar energy, while hydropower dominates in Papua New Guinea. 

Conclusion

A recent World Bank Report published in 2026, outlines renewable energy roadmaps for a subset of PICTs. The roadmaps demonstrate that Papua New Guinea should prioritize accelerating electricity access through a mix of on-grid and off-grid systems. Tonga, on the other hand, will need to focus on long-term decarbonization and reducing its reliance on oil-generated power. The World Bank Report highlights that PICTs will not be able to achieve their transitions without significant investment from both domestic and international sources. 

The differences between Tonga and Papua New Guinea highlight that there is no one-size-fits-all solution for PICTs' renewable energy transitions. While PICTs' renewable energy pathways and needs will differ, investment is critical to advancing their transitions.