Natural Gas Demand Forecasting

Problem Statement

The task is to develop an annual demand forecasting model that accounts for local macro and demographic variables to predict long term to 2050 demand of natural gas.

Understanding Market Trend


Top Natural Gas Consuming Countries

  • USA

  • Russia

  • Iran

  • China

  • Germany

  • Canada

  • U.K

  • Italy

  • France

  • Saudi Arabia


Uses of Natural Gas

Initial Data Exploration

Natural Gas Consumtion by Sector

Project Flow

I started with data collection and used various sources listed below to collect the data for natural gas consumption. Next step was to clean the data and handle any missing values. After the data processing was done, I performed exploratory data analysis to check the existing trends in the consumption pattern and the demand-supply relationship for the natural gas over the years.

Next, since I had multi-variate time series data, I had to select machine learning model that would handle such data : two important model that I used were vector ARMA and LSTM.

Data Collection Sources

Important Features Used in the model

Model Selection

Model Development