Job Market Paper: Political Impact of Curtailing Migrant Workers: Evidence from the Bracero Program [PDF] 

Abstract: A central question in U.S. immigration policy is how a reduction in low-skilled immigrant labor shapes the economy and politics. This paper examines the political impact of restricting the supply of immigrant workers under the Bracero Program, a U.S.–Mexico agreement that provided Mexican farm labor to address postwar shortages. This restriction occurred in two phases: first, a 1962 minimum wage increase for Mexican workers and second, the program's official termination. Using cross-county variation in exposure to Mexican farm workers, I employ a difference-in-differences model to compare electoral outcomes in high- and low-exposure counties after 1962. In the short run, these policies led to a 2.8 percentage point increase in the vote share for the Republican party, which had opposed the program's termination. This effect is likely driven by voter reaction to higher agricultural prices and by the mobilization of voters through Republican-affiliated media.

Demand Elasticity, Energy Efficiency and Solar PV Subsidies: A Study of California 

(with Kavya Ravindranath)

Abstract: Despite many studies on the demand for Solar PV, little is known about its adoption among low-income households. In this paper, we exploit a California policy that provides exogenous variation in Solar PV subsidies targeted at the low-income market. Using project-level data, we estimate two key policy parameters: the effect of subsidy programs on the prices consumers pay and the price elasticity of demand among low-income households. We find the subsidy programs reduce consumer prices in low-income neighborhoods by 33.4%, and we estimate the price elasticity of demand in our sample to be -0.589.

Temporary Tax Relief and Consumer Demand: Evidence from U.S. Sales Tax Holidays (with Donghao Wu)

Abstract: Understanding consumers’ responses to temporary tax relief is essential for evaluating its effectiveness as a stimulus tool. We examine the impact of temporary tax relief on consumer demand by exploiting variation from state-level sales tax holidays. Our analysis uses a novel, high-frequency dataset of credit and debit card transactions, offering a level of granularity absent in prior literature. Using a staggered difference-in-differences model, we find that sales tax holidays increase apparel spending by an average of 2.5% during the holiday period. This effect is transitory, disappearing once the tax holiday concludes.