RSS West Midlands Local Group 70th Anniversary

Statistics: a data science for the twenty-first century

Prof Peter Diggle, Lancaster University

This talk shared Peter’s vision and thoughts on the discipline of statistics based upon his experience working with the Faculty of Health and Medicine at Lancaster University, the Institute of Infection and Global Health at the University of Liverpool and as one of the founding co-editors of the journal Biostatistics. Peter discussed the rise of data science and its relationship with statistics, indicating that although data science may be seen by some as a threat to statistics, it may also provide an opportunity for statisticians to promote the importance of the correct application of statistical methodology for data interpretation. This has become of particular importance in recent years as the links between information technology and statistics have strengthened, giving rise to new fields such as electronic health, or e-health, research.

Following this, Peter provided examples of some recent e-health research projects within which he has been involved, including real-time spatial surveillance of gastroentritic illness, National Health Service prescribing patterns for Ritalin, monitoring of long-term progression to end stage kidney failure and a programme for onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness) control in Africa. These examples highlighted areas for which statistical methodologies may be applied to interpret data and influence policy, but for which skill in informatics is necessary to first acquire the data and provide a useful solution.

In his concluding remarks, Peter highlighted the importance of interdisciplinary work which includes input from statisticians and how a University may be structured to facilitate and encourage interdisciplinary collaboration. Finally, as University students and researchers are the product of a number of education systems before they reach University, Peter also gave topic suggestions which he believes should be taught at each stage of education.

Getting the numbers out there: the public role of statisticians

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, University of Cambridge

This often laugh-out-loud funny talk had a serious key message: that statisticians have an important role to play in public life.

David, who holds the position of Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, gave several examples of using analogies and easily explainable concepts to help the general public grasp risk, such as the concept of a micromort (a one-in-a-million chance of sudden death). He also showed how clearly drawn expected frequency trees can help people make medical decisions, such as whether or not to undergo screening for breast cancer. Statisticians have an important role to play in working with organisations such as the NHS to give the public the tools they need to make these kind of decisions.

David also highlighted another big role for public statisticians: stop silly stuff getting into the news. I'm sure it will not surprise readers of this summary that the newspaper headlines "'Bacon, ham and sausages have the same cancer risk as cigarettes' warn experts" and "Why going to university increases risk of getting a brain tumour" are not accurate representations of the studies being reported. Public statisticians have a job to do in helping journalists understand the statistics in such studies, and also in debunking such reporting whenever it does appear.

Concluding his talk, David pointed out the increasing demand for insight into numbers. In order to get the message out there, there need to be statisticians with media training. Developing contacts with policy makers and the media is also important (though this takes a while). As incoming president of the RSS, he affirmed the role that that organisation has to play, and steps being taken in that directions, such the ambassador programme, responding to consultations and being a conduit for helping journalists.

As a final note, those who weren't there to see the (unfortunately) discarded draft cover for his book Sex by Numbers missed a treat. I will never be able to look at a three category bar graph in the same way again. And, as he recalled, even the Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of risk is not immune from questionable press coverage, as demonstrated by the hilarious story about how a joke he made when promoting the book made international headlines as "'Britains are having less sex and Game of Thrones could be to blame' warns Cambridge professor”!