Working paper (2024) | Privacy statement | Media coverage: ESB, NRC, VoxEU
Working paper (2025)
Privacy statement
This paper studies the relationship between climate policy, market power and innovation. Using linked data on patent applications and firms' balance sheets, I find empirical evidence that (i) the direction of innovation is path dependent, and (ii) firms with a higher degree of market power are, on average, more invested in dirty technologies than their direct competitors. These findings suggest that climate policy affects market leaders and laggards differently. I then develop a model of directed technical change and the environment with strategic interaction between competing firms. Firms compete for market power by innovating in clean or dirty technologies. A carbon tax can decrease the effective technological distance between two competitors, and thus affects both the intensity and the direction of innovation. In the model, the increase of a carbon tax can sharply increase clean innovation while also increasing dirty innovation by some firms. Calibration results show that the transition to a green economy may temporarily decrease aggregate market power, as measured by the average markup, by strengthening competition in markets, and lead to an overall increase in innovation.
This paper investigates the effect of energy prices, a proxy for an energy tax, on the labor share. Using aggregated administrative data from 15 European countries and 56 sectors for the years 2000-2016, and applying a shift-share instrumental variable approach, we find that the energy price has a negative and quantitatively significant effect on the labor share both in the short and medium-run. Exploring the potential mechanisms, we show that the complementarity between labor and energy is the driver of this negative effect while reallocation among firms, changes in aggregate markups and the revenue to value-added ratio induced by energy price shocks have limited effects. We also document that energy prices increase the capital-labor ratio and do not influence the capital share, which indicates that the degree of substitution between energy and labor is lower than the substitution between energy and capital. These results imply potentially sizable distributional impacts of climate change policies as the transitional costs differ across the primary factors.