2024 Blues Only Mock Draft

One of the biggest movers in the draft this year might be the Calgary Flames. Calgary has 8 picks in the first 4 rounds (2 in every round 1-4) and already has an above-average prospect poll so they will be looking for quality over quantity. This can also be seen by the move earlier trading Markstrom to New Jersey for a player and 25’ 1st. The Flames prefer higher level talent rather then an excess of picks. For that reason, it might be tempting for Calgary to move up especially looking at what their prospect pool needs most, right-wingers. Most of the wingers should fall out of the top 10 meaning Calgary will have plenty of options here from Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Beckett Sennecke, Liam Greentree, etc. Calgary at the end of the day doesn’t need all these picks and might be able to find a suitor who may not like who is available at their position… which might be the Blues.

Why St. Louis Makes the Trade

The 2024 NHL draft looks to be one in which the defenseman will go quickly. There are also plenty of teams in the top 15 who need a defenseman. This means that more than likely, the only defenseman available for the Blues might be Adam Jiricek, or possibly none at all. For a team that is loaded with forward prospects but has only one major defensive prospect, you might want to find a trade out. In terms of possible trading partners, there are not many so Calgary might be the only one that would want to trade up and has the capital to trade up.

Trading up from the mid 1st to the later 1st has worked out for teams in recent history. As stated earlier, this trade is modeled off of the 2021 Dallas-Detroit trade with Detroit getting pick 15 and Dallas receiving pick 23,48, and 138. Pick 23 for Dallas ended up being a future star in Wyatt Johnston. Now, Calgary is trading up 12 spots here, not 8 and because Chicago has set the bar so high in terms of what it costs to trade up due to the Islanders trade, Calgary will likely have to give up their early-mid 2nd rounder. To compensate, I did give Calgary the Blues 4th but when you get two 2nds, you shouldn’t complain about trading a 4th. Now the Blues are allergic to drafting in the 2nd round, this year would more than likely be the first time doing so since 2019 (Nikita Alexandrov). Instead, the Blues like to trade their 2nd rounders, turning them into talent like Scandella, Leddy, Buchnevich, and Ryan O’Reilly. Just goes to show it never hurts to have extra 2’s even if you don’t use them.

The Blues goal in this draft is to improve the defense core. Besides Theo Lindstein, the defense room is a bunch of meh with the likes of Buchinger, Loof, and Burns. There are a lot of high potential defenseman in the late 1st and early 2nd rounds. Although the Blues could go for the safe option taking a guaranteed bottom 4 in Jiricek, I like my odds of taking 3 high chance lottery tickets who could all turn into something better.

One last note here before I talk about draft picks. A lot of fans are clamoring for a trade up and that is just not something that would be smart here thanks to Chicago. It cost Chicago the 61st pick in this draft to move up 2 picks in the first round and 4 picks in the second. Think what the cost would be to move up into the top 10. Trading down to gain a lot more high-end defensive talents makes a lot more sense than taking a leap of faith in one guy who might hit but will definitely ruin your draft capital/prospect room.

1.28 (VAN) - Leo Sahlin Wallenius (D)

Age - 18 Height - 6’0’’ Weight - 176lbs

Nationality - Swedish

Central Scouting Rank - 7 (EURO)

Current Team - Vaxjo Lakers (SHL)

Stats

J20 Nationell: 43GP 11G 31A 20 +/-

WJC18 - 7GP 3G 2 +/-

The Blues once again dive into the Swedish world with their first round selection going to Leo Sahlin here. Sahlin has been on the cusp all season from being a 1st and 2nd round pick with his questionable checking ability leading him to fall out of the 1st round in some mocks. But that is the only real knock to Sahlin game. He is a two-way de who in the World Junior Championship (U18) was a first liner at even strength and power play while being a 2nd line penalty killer. He is not a one-trick pony either in the offensive zone having both shooting and passing ability. Sahlin seems to have fantastic hockey IQ holding the puck in the blue line and knowing the importance of shooting the puck for rebound attempts. Although not the biggest guy in the world, Sahlin does control the wall fairly well. The only players Sahlin seems to have trouble with are speedsters demonstrated by what the US speedsters did to him in the first game of the WJCU18. However, there’s a lot to like about Sahlin's game and should slot in as a definite 2nd line de possibly first if he corrects his flaws. Reminds me a lot of Nick Leddy.

2.41 (CGY) - Aron Kiviharju (D)

Age - 18 Height - 5’9’’ Weight - 170lbs

Nationality - Finnish

Central Scouting Rank - 8 (EURO)

Current Team - HIFK (Liiga)

Stats:

Liiga - 7GP 1G 1A

WJC18 - 5GP 3A

Alright I’ve talked about Kiviharju a lot so one final quick run down before the draft of him. My personal favorite prospect in this draft, had a great chance of going top 10 thanks to his impressive offensive skills. Unfortunately, Kiviharju got injured during the World Junior Championship and has been out the majority of the year. This (and an iffy 7 games at Liiga) has caused him to fall out of the first round entirely if outside reports are to be believed with some dropping him all the way to the mid 2nd. There’s just to much talent here to pass up on him though. He might be the best power play QB in this draft, has great reaction time, great vision, there’s just so much to like. He’s also a proven leader be named captain of the Finnish world juniors team. Kiviharju two main knocks though are the recent injury and him being undersized at only 5 foot 9 inches. All this to say, Kiviharju going to take probably at least 3 years to develop which is perfect since the guy he compares the most with, Torey Krug, contract will finally be over. St. Louis is also not the team searching for high upside offensive de and trading into the early 2nd allows you to get ahead possible Kiviharju suitors like Buffalo, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Detroit, and especially Nashville. Kiviharju might end up being the same thing as Scott Perunovich but there is just too much upside here to pass if he is available when the Blues pick in the 2nd. A high-risk lottery ticket.

2.48 - Alfons Freij (D)

Age - 18 Height - 6’0’’ Weight - 187lbs

Nationality - Swedish

Central Scouting Rank - 13 (EURO)

Current Team - Vaxjo Lakers (SHL)

Stats:

J20 Nationell - 40GP 14G 19A

WJC18 - 7GP 2G 4A 4+/-

For the third straight pick, I am going defenseman, and I am staying in Scandinavia. One of my favorite moments in last year's draft was when Otto was doing his post-selection interview and then got super excited when he learned Theo was drafted. Wouldn’t it be nice to recreate it here? Freij has a lot of comparisons to Sahlin especially when it comes to skating. He also has the same potential as Sahlin and might even be faster. There are two knocks on Freij games, and they are very big knocks. The lesser of the two knocks is that Freij can sometimes get overconfident in himself and take unnecessary slap shots from the blue line with these shots more than not missing the hot. This is especially evident on the power-play and is the reason Sahlin is the first line de on the PP. Knock two, Freij struggles a lot in reading a play and looks lost at times. This leads to a lot of turnovers, especially during transition. These can be fixed but they will take time. If the Blues can fix this though, they will have drafted 3 first round quality defenseman.

2.56 (TOR) - Heikki Ruohonen (C)

Age - 17 Height - 6’1’’ Weight - 204lbs

Nationality - Finnish

Central Scouting Rank - 35 (EURO)

Current Team - Blue (Liiga)

Stats:

Finish U20 League - 37GP 20G 27A

WJC18 5GP 3G 2A 4 +/-

The first “reach” of this mock draft, Ruohnen has a lot to like for possibly being the first forward drafted by the Blues. Ruohonen can be described as your traditional power-forward. He has a heavy shot, great in the corners, amazing forecheck, very physical. Ruohonen even has some non-traditional traits like elite faceoff skills and powerful strides. There are a few knocks on him though that usually cause him to fall into the 3rd round or possibly later. He doesn’t really provide much on the offensive end of the ice and makes some questionable passing decisions. He also plays in a not-very-talented league in the Finnish juniors leading him to drop. He is playing at Harvard next year so hopefully, the smart school can make his playing style a little bit more smarter. This pick is definitely not a fancy pick by any means but if you take a look at the Blues, physicality is lacking severely. Bringing in a guy like Ruohonen can help bring some of that toughness back but may take a few years to get there.

3.81 - Eriks “Moose” Mateiko (LW)

Age - 18 Height - 6’4’’ Weight - 210lbs

Nationality - Latvian

Central Scouting Rank - 33 (NA Skater)

Current Team – Sant John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Stats:

QMJHL – 49GP 23G 20A

WJC20 5GP 1G

If you have the nickname of Moose and you make the NHL, chances are you are going to have a good career. As his height suggests, Mateiko is a very physical player. But he doesn’t rely on it as much as other power-forwards. Like a power forward, his long reach helps him protect the puck, and he is excellent in the corners. However, Mateiko is willing to take an offensive role if need be using his body to screen the goalie, and has played a lot on the power play. He proved this unusual power play potential by scoring a beauty against Germany. Mateiko also loves crashing the net to get rebounds and with his frame, he has a good chance of winning the rebound battle. Biggest knocks on his game is that he doesn’t provide much in the passing department and his vision can be iffy. With that being said, the Blues need 2-way forwards and if Toropchenko does make that top 6 jump in the future, the Moose could be a good replacement in the bottom 6 department.

3.95 (NYR) - Joona Saarelainen (C)

Age – 18 Height – 5’9’’ Weight – 183lbs

Nationality – Finnish

Central Scouting Ranking – 49 (EURO)

Current Team – KalPa (Liiga)

Liiga – 8GP 1A

Finnish Jrs. U20– 41GP 13G 23A

- Playoffs U18– 4GP 8G 7A

WJC18 – 5GP 3G 1A

That is not a typo, Saarelainen did score 15 points in 4 games during the U18 Finnish league playoffs. I’m not a big fan of including the Five Nation tournament stats since it is less prestigious than the World Juniors, but in that tournament, the Finnish side had 12 goals, Saarelainen had 6 of them. As is obvious, Saarelanien is a natural finisher who can score however like backhand, forehand, from the slot, on the dot, etc. Saarelainen also has incredible vision, creating plays from the faceoff dot at times. Even with all these highlights, Saarelainen has one big downside, he hasn’t proven he can play against NHL-level talent, especially as an undersized forward. He might have looked great against other prospects, but when playing against grown men in Liiga, he was awful. In the late third round though, you just never know what you will get. Saarelainen has proven he can be a purely offensive player and there’s a chance it could translate but he has to get bigger or at least play bigger. Boom or bust type prospect.

5.145 - William McIsaac (RD)

Age – 18 Height – 6’3’’ Weight – 192lbs

Nationality – Canadian

Central Scouting Rank – 93 (NA Skaters)

Current Team – Spokane Chiefs (WHL)

Stats:

WHL – 67GP 6G 21A 15 +/-

The final defenseman of this draft, McIsaac has a lot of qualities I like. Although the first 3 de on this list all can play either side, they all prefer the left. McIsaac can fill in the need on the right. McIsaac is also only focused on the defensive side of the action not being used much in terms of overall offense. He also has really good size at 6 foot 3 and knows how to use it especially when dealing with gap control. Overall, good hockey IQ and skating even though he is a little slow starting up and lacks explosiveness. The biggest knock on his game is that he gets a little reckless at times trying to make the highlight reel with incredibly flashy hits and trying to make awesome passes that just aren’t there. His lack of offense game will limit him to a 3rd line de in the NHL but that is only if he shows improvement. Fortunately, he has in one category, +/-. In 22/23 McIsaac had a -15 while in the same number of games this season he had a positive 15. Just goes to show that McIsaac is willing to learn, just a big question of if he has the ability to eventually crack into the NHL.

7.209 - Erik Pahlsson (C)

Age – 20 Height – 6’0’’ Weight 185lbs

Nationality – Sweden

Central Scouting Rank – 177 (NA Skater)

Current Team – Dubuque (USHL)

Stats:

USHL – 57GP 28G 44A 23 +/-

One of the oldest guys in this draft, Pahlsson tried his luck in the previous 2 drafts but was never drafted. Third time is a charm in this mock draft. He played a few years ago in the Swedish Junior system playing fairly well getting about a point and a half a game. Of course, since he got passed over the last few years he has decided to go over to the USHL and play for Dubuque. There he has proven he has a very high hockey IQ becoming an immediate team leader while also proving his ability as a pass-first type player. These stats showed up on the scoreboard as Pahlsson finished 6th in the USHL in both assists and total points scored. For context, one of his teammates was a fellow European and last year's Blues 3rd rounder in Juraj Pekarcik who in 43 games played scored 50 assists but was much less effective scoring getting only 9 goals this year. These two players are very comparable. Next year, Pahlsson will be joining another Blues prospect heading to the University of Minnesota to play with Jimmy Snuggerud. His age and averageness in a lot of categories might deter some teams away but Pahlsson has proven he can play at a high prospect level. Might as well give him a shot.

7.211 (NYI) - Landon Miller (G)

Age – 18 Height – 6’4’’ Weight 193lbs

Nationality – Canada

Central Scouting – 6 (NA Goalie)

Current Team – Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

Stats:

OHL – 30GP 2.79GAA .889SV%

Nine times out of ten, it is a good idea to draft a goalie. They’re just one of those positions that is always in need (even if it is just at the AHL level) and can always boom in the later rounds. The Blues will probably have a goalie spot open up in a few years with goalies like Cranley, Zherenko, and Ellis getting closer towards the time they can become full free agents. More than likely, one of them will go and Landon Miller can replace them. This was the first year starting for the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhound after an abysmal few starts in 22-23 putting up a 6.65 GAA and a .817 SV%. This year there were improvements getting to a respectable sub-3 goal against average. Landon Miller uses his size to help him stop the puck but is lacking in the lateral movement category. Worst case, the Blues never sign him to a contract, best case, he is probably a career AHL starter. But you never know with goalies so might as well take a shot with one.

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