Narrative Capture and Status Aspirations: Why Populism on the cheap keeps winning in India, United States and Brazil
Once elected, how do economically center-right Right-wing Populist leaders consolidate electoral power and when do they fail? And why does this matter for democratic outcomes?
Together, these two papers explain the mechanisms for why redistributive demands might be suppressed for both socially low status and high status groups using observational data and a field survey experiment
How do individuals perceive their class position in society when they belong to a high social-status group but are low status in the economic hierarchy (for example, poor upper castes or poor whites)? Existing literature on social identity notes the tendency of low-status minorities to strive for racial distancing, but does not address that individuals might also distance from the stigma of poverty. Using observational data from stratified societies India and the United States, this paper demonstrates that not only do individuals distance from low income ranks, but individuals with a higher social status rank (on race and caste) are more likely to overstate their economic class rank and downplay financial hardship. This paper adds to the literature on social identity by showing how people seek to distance from economic identity and sketches out some implications for redistributive politics. This finding offers an additional mechanism into the persistent puzzle of why some low-income individuals may reject redistribution, not admitting they are poor.
Why are right-wing political actors able to persuade poor minorities with “second dimension” appeals involving cultural, religious and national issues? Existing “status threat” explanations focus on groups threatened with losing status, and do not address the motivations of poor voters who never had any status to lose. I propose a theory of “status gains” to show how national status appeals help drive support for right-wing political actors amongst ”aspirational” minorities, those expecting to make future economic gains. Using a field survey experiment in India, I find that perceived gains in national status increase low-income respondents’ perception of their own social status, particularly for poor minorities including women and Schedule Castes. The perception of national and group status gains increases willingness to vote for the incumbent right-wing party amongst aspirational poor minorities, who are more likely to believe that the economic system is fair and more likely to prioritize national benefit over individual economic gains.
Together, these two papers describe how expectations and experiences of economic mobility influence policy attitudes towards social inequality and affirmative action using observational data from a field survey and an online survey experiment
Do aspirations of economic progress influence perceptions of economic disadvantages faced by minority groups? Using a field survey from India, I find that aspirational low income people (those who are expecting future income gains) are "disadvantage blind" to lack of opportunity for disadvantaged minorities, irrespective of whether they belong to a disadvantaged group (such as lower castes and women) themselves. These attitudes are partially reflected in policy attitudes such as reduced preferences for group based affirmative action, preferring national gains over gains to self, and preference for disadvantage blind policy attitudes of preferred political candidates. This paper explains the concept of "Disadvantage Blindness" and its relationship with aspiration, while shedding light on how and why aspiration for progressing up the economic ladder can be in tension with building consensus for addressing social inequalities, even amongst those who have most to gain. These findings can help explain the nature of political preferences for an aspirational population.
How do perceptions of low opportunity in society influence identity concerns, policy preferences and fairness beliefs for an upwardly mobile population? In stratified societies such as India, high status groups experience higher upward mobility, and ethnic minorities lag behind in income and opportunity. Using representative observational data and an online survey experiment during onset of the Covid pandemic in 2020, I find that experiences of upward mobility increase individualistic attitudes. Being apprised of low mobility in society induces a weak increase in preferences for redistribution, while simultaneously reducing beliefs in the fairness of affirmative action and mildly decreasing democratic attitudes for an upwardly mobile sample of online respondents. I suggest that this is because an upwardly mobile population is both meritocratic and blind to minority disadvantage in opportunity. A thinning of societal opportunity then precipitates backlash on special benefits for minorities, as it is seen as breaching fairness principles.
Research agenda underway, more to come
The paper describes how a challenge to institutions that convey information about government performance can lead to different kinds of "Narrative Capture" and its implications .