Current exposure has come from both densification and expansion of built-up areas

The relative importance of densification and expansion varies with hazard.

  • Densification of at-risk urban areas drove most increase in earthquake exposure, shown by the steep slope of the earthquake line above.

  • Hurricane exposure was also marked by expansion, but trended closer to the national pattern of both densification and expansion of built-up area.

  • Expansion played a comparatively larger role in the growth of tornado, flood and wildfire exposure in hotspots.

Temporal trends in densification vary with hazard.

  • In earthquake, hurricane, tornado and flood hotspots, densification was relatively rapid prior to ~1970.

  • In wildfire hotspots, densification has steadily increased, suggesting that denser settlements have incurred into wildfire zones but also that low-density development in the wildand-urban interface has tended to fill in over time, an especially worrying pattern.

Expansion rates in CONUS show two historical inflexions.

  • Similar to the national trends, expansion in tornado, earthquake and flood hotspots decelerated in the 1980s and again in the 2000s.

  • Hurricane hotspots featured the highest and fastest expansion, as suburbanization of the coastal plain occurred at twice the national rate.

  • Expansion in wildfire hotstpots was very low until the mid-1970s, and increased thereafter.