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The four relative sea level rise (RSL) scenarios shown in this tab are derived from the 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report using the same methods as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Sea Level Change Curve Calculator. These new scenarios were developed by the U.S. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force as input into the U.S. Global Change Research Program Sustained Assessment process and, Fifth National Climate Assessment. These RSL scenarios provide an update to the NOAA 2017 scenarios, which were developed as input to the Fourth National Climate Assessment.

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For almost all the scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska.

The Social Vulnerability Index, which shows areas of high human vulnerability to hazards, is based on population attributes from Census 2010 (e.g., age and poverty) and the built environment. By looking at the intersection of potential sea level rise and vulnerable Census tracts, one can get an idea of how vulnerable populations might be affected by sea level rise. Dark red indicates tracts having a high vulnerability, and the lighter reds indicate decreasing vulnerability.

The purpose of this map viewer is to provide federal, state, and local coastal resource managers and planners with a preliminary look at sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts. The viewer is a screening-level tool that uses best-available, nationally consistent data sets and analyses. Data and maps provided can be used at several scales to help estimate impacts and prioritize actions for different scenarios.

Sea level along the U.S. coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10 - 12 inches (0.25 - 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020 - 2050), which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020). Sea level rise will vary regionally along U.S. coasts because of changes in both land and ocean height.

Current and future emissions matter. About 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise along the U.S. coastline is increasingly likely between 2020 and 2100 because of emissions to date. Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional 1.5 - 5 feet (0.5 - 1.5 meters) of rise for a total of 3.5 - 7 feet (1.1 - 2.1 meters) by the end of this century.

Continuously tracking how and why sea level is changing is an important part of informing plans for adaptation. Our ability to monitor and understand the individual factors that contribute to sea level rise allows us to track sea level changes in a way that has never before been possible (e.g., using satellites to track global ocean levels and ice sheet thickness). Ongoing and expanded monitoring will be critical as sea levels continue to rise.

Above 5.5F (3C) of global warming, much greater sea level rise becomes possible for the U.S. and globally because of the potential for rapid melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The amount of additional warming required to trigger this is unknown because ice sheet instability is difficult to model and there is great variability in current modeling approaches.

Long-term sea level rise will affect the extent, frequency, and duration of coastal flooding events. High-tide flooding events that occur only a few times a year now may occur once a month, or once a week in the coming decades. These same water level changes may also increase coastal erosion and groundwater levels. Elevated groundwater levels can lead to increased rainfall runoff and compromised underground infrastructure, such as public utilities, septic systems, and structural foundations. Higher water levels also mean deadly and destructive storm surges, wave impacts, and rainwater are unable to drain away from homes and businesses.

Another reason for differences in regional sea level is vertical land motion. Across the U.S., land is sinking or rising at different rates and times, and this affects how high sea level rises in a region. Vertical land motion can be a result of geologic processes (e.g. the movement of tectonic plates); human activity, such as removing groundwater or fossil fuels from underground, which can cause the land to sink; or naturally-occurring sediment compaction and settling over time (e.g., subsidence in the Mississippi River delta).

Global mean sea level, or the average height of the ocean surface, has risen 6 - 8 inches (15 - 20 centimeters) since 1920. In the continental U.S., relative sea level has risen about 10 - 12 inches (25 - 30 centimeters) over the same period. Observational data from tide gauges and satellites also show that sea level rise, both globally and along the continental U.S., is accelerating, with more than a third of that rise having occurred in the past two and a half decades (see NOAA and NASA portals for altimeter-based global rates and NOAA for local tide gauge rates).

In the 2017 sea level rise technical report, scenarios were related to representative concentration pathways. The 2022 report and data employ the underlying methods and output from the Sixth Assessment Report and their dependency on shared socioeconomic pathways, but focus more on how these scenarios relate directly to different amounts of end-of-century surface warming associated with the pathways (see Question 3).

Process uncertainty is associated with how well we currently understand why sea level has changed in the past and how it will change in the future at specific times and locations. To capture process uncertainty in sea level rise projections, there is a range of uncertainty around each individual scenario (i.e., the low/17th%, median/50% and high/83rd% values for each particular scenario). The farther forward in time we move, the greater the uncertainty around each projection.

Emissions uncertainty is captured in the range between the five global mean sea level rise scenarios: Low (1 foot; 0.3 meters), Intermediate Low (1.6 feet; 0.5 meters), Intermediate (3.3 feet; 1.0 meter), Intermediate High (4.9 feet; 1.5 meters), and High (6.6 feet; 2.0 meters). In other words, the range between the five sea level scenarios is closely connected to emissions uncertainty, while the range around a given scenario is associated with process uncertainty.

The 2022 technical report includes five possible scenarios of global sea level rise by 2100: Low (1 foot; 0.3 meters), Intermediate Low (1.6 feet; 0.5 meters), Intermediate (3.3 feet; 1.0 meter), Intermediate High (4.9 feet; 1.5 meters), and High (6.6 feet; 2.0 meters). These same scenarios were in the 2017 technical report, but the Extreme (8.2 feet; 2.5 meters) scenario included in 2017 has been removed (see Question 14).

The 2100 projections for each global scenario stayed the same, since science suggests this range of futures remains possible. However, the timing for different rates of rise for the different scenarios was updated based on new modeling and more realistic assumptions of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet behavior based upon the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Climate Assessment. A result is that there is less acceleration in the higher scenarios until about 2050 and greater acceleration toward the end of this century. This has two primary implications. First, despite maintaining the same target values and having the same range between scenarios in 2100, the range covered by the scenarios is smaller in the near term than in the 2017 report. Second, the likely (17th-83rd percentile) ranges of projections for each scenario before and after the 2100 time point used to define the scenarios are wider than in the 2017 report.

Sea level along the contiguous U.S. coastline is expected to rise (considering alignment of both the observation-based trajectories and the scenarios in 2050), on average, 10 - 12 inches (0.25 - 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020-2050). This will vary locally because of regional factors (see Question 4). Rise in the next three decades is anticipated to be, on average:

With each passing year, improved observations and modeling help us get a clearer picture of how and when sea level is changing both globally and regionally (see Questions 3 and 4). The scenarios in the 2022 technical report are lower in the near-term decades than they were in the 2017 technical report because there is improved understanding of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet dynamics (see Question 10). This improved understanding comes from additional observations, research, modeling, and expert elicitation efforts that indicate sea level rise will be slower in the next few decades than previously projected. The 2022 technical report removes the Extreme (2.5 meter) scenario because the probability of this scenario is now thought to be too low to merit inclusion.

Sea level scenarios will continue to be refined as scientists increasingly observe and learn more about the details of dynamic earth system processes (e.g., Antarctic ice sheet response to temperature increases.) Additional data will help to reduce uncertainty. U.S. federal agencies monitor and assess key sea level rise source contributions globally and along U.S. coastlines, and this work can provide early indications of change in the trajectory of sea level rise, which can inform shifts in adaptation planning. 006ab0faaa