Past projects
2018.
Low Income Dynamics among Ethnic Minorities in Great Britain (joint with A. Nandi).
Using data from Understanding Society, and robust estimation methods we show that simple models which ignore initial poverty status and non-random attrition, underestimate (overestimate) the magnitude of poverty persistence for the Indian (black African) groups. We find differences in poverty entry and persistence rates within and between ethnic groups. Simulation exercises suggest that changing individual and household characteristics can reduce poverty persistence for all ethnic minority groups except black Africans ; whereas changes in structural or institutional factors are required to tackle poverty entry for Indian, black African and Caribbean groups. We find scarring effects of experiencing poverty for black African and white majority groups.
Link to paper:
https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/iser/2018-06
2016.
In or Out? Poverty dynamics among older individuals in the UK. (Journal of Pension Economics and Finance).
Using the largest household panel survey Understanding Society, this paper investigates low-income dynamics among pensioner households in the UK controlling for biases due to initial conditions and non-random survey attrition. Estimation results indicate there is a correlation between initial and conditional poverty status, specifically, there is regression towards the mean. The results find no evidence of a correlation between initial poverty status, conditional poverty status and survey attrition. The findings show the importance of benefit income in determining poverty status, suggesting that a dichotomous measure such as poverty status may not suitably reflect actual pensioner living standards. Aside from benefit income, receipt of employer and occupational pension, health, education and subjective financial situation are important in determining initial and conditional poverty status. Stylised examples highlight the significant differences in the ‘poverty experience’ which arise due to differences individual and household characteristics.
To defer or not defer? UK state pension and work decisions in a lifecycle model. (2016) (joint with P. Simmons). (Applied Economics, 2016)
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00036846.2016.1184374
The UK state pension (which depends only on age) includes an option to defer take up which yields either a subsequent lump sum or higher weekly pension. We analyse the joint decisions on pension deferral and intertemporal labour supply/participation in a lifecycle setting. We show that deferral is purely a financial decision, but the impact of deferral on work decisions depends on preferences, wage rates, non-labour income and initial wealth. To exactly characterise this we use a quasilinear utility function, and provide calibrated simulations. We also discuss the choice between a lump sum or increased weekly pension.
This piece of research featured a Royal Economic Society media article
Link to working paper: click here.
2015.
Post retirement labour supply in England (Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 2015).
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X15000171
This paper uses the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing to investigate post retirement labour supply behaviour amongst retired men in England. We show the hazard of unretirement is highest when an individual is in their 60s. Evidence suggests unretirement is more likely amongst individuals with a higher level of educational attainment, have higher levels of pension wealth, have a spouse in the labour market and are in better health. We investigate the nature of unretirement jobs and find they tend to be part time and provide an individual with weekly earnings in excess of their weekly state pension.
This piece of research has featured in The Economist and Telegraph (Front Page!) including video interview. I have also spoken about this research and retirement behaviour more generally on BBC Radio Southampton.
This piece of research also featured as a Royal Economic Society media article:
2013
Work and Play Pave the Way: The Importance of Part Time Work in a Lifecycle Model (2013) (joint with P. Simmons).
US males labour force behaviour shows lifecycle effects. We develop a lifecycle model of individual labour supply, with a single financial asset and non labour income. With widely used preferences, we derive the analytical form of the value function and optimal labour participation for any period, t. Consumption and savings switches its form as participation changes. A spell of part time work has strong implications for earlier decisions on participation, consumption, savings and the marginal value of leisure and wealth. We apply our framework to explain the increasing prevalence of non standard retirement noted in the literature.
Link to paper: click here.
Policy reports:
Wealth in the downturn: Winners and Losers (March 2015)
(Joint work with the Nida Broughton, Chief Economist at the Social Market Foundation and Nicole Martin, ISER)
http://www.smf.co.uk/events/wealth-in-the-downturn-winners-and-losers/
Research featured on front page of national newspapers.
The role of the UK tax system in an anti-poverty strategy: Economic principles and practical reforms (2016) (joint with Mike Brewer)
Old projects
Approaches to the Seasonal Adjustment of Labour Market Flows (2012) (joint with D. Ayoubkhani).
Using the two quarter longitudinal UK Labour Force Survey we find evidence of seasonality in labour force flows. We compare seasonally adjusted estimates using direct and indirect methods. Diagnostic tests indicate no method is superior. We conclude it is preferable to indirectly seasonally adjust labour force flows, to ensure the sum of seasonally adjusted subcomponents is equal to the corresponding seasonally adjusted aggregate. Moreover this additivity property allows the user to establish which subcomponents of a particular series may be causing unusually large quarter-on-quarter changes in the aggregate series.
Link to paper: click here.
Accounting for Attrition in the 2-Quarter UK Labour Force Survey (2012).
Declining survey response rates and changes in the UKs demographic structure over time, alter the determinants of non response in longitudinal surveys. We show the results of Clarke and Tate (1999) hold to a degree, but that additional controls for non response including: Economic Status, Marital Status and Interview Outcome are needed in the weighting calibration to adequately control for attrition in the 2-quarter UK Labour Force Survey. Under the revised specification we find the magnitude of flows reported between different labour force states across two consecutive quarters is significantly lower than that estimated under the current weighting specification. We also show it is feasible to estimate the revised specification using the Generalised Estimation System (GES) similar to the main cross section quarterly LFS dataset.
Link to paper: please request