Publications
Publications
2025. Mapping (A)Ideology: A Taxonomy of European Parties Using Generative LLMs as Zero-Shot Learners
Political Analysis. Joint with Chen Zeng (European University Institute), Elias Dinas (European University Institute), and Reda Tamtam (European University Institute).
[Working Paper] [Replication Material]
Abstract. We perform the first mapping of the ideological positions of European parties using generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a "zero-shot" learner. We ask OpenAI 's Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT-3.5) to identify the more "right-wing" option across all possible duplets of European parties at a given point in time, solely based on their names and country of origin, and combine this information via a Bradley-Terry decomposition to create an ideological ranking. Cross-validating our LLM-generated assessment with widely-used expert-, manifesto-and pollbased scaling methods reveals that Large Language Models (LLMs) closely map those obtained through the first, i.e., CHES. Also, left-right scores produced by GPT-3.5 accurately capture changes in parties' ideological positions over time. Given the high cost of scaling parties via trained coders, and the scarcity of expert data before the 1990s, finding that generative AI produces estimates of comparable quality to CHES supports its usage in political science on the grounds of replicability, agility, and affordability.
2024. Terrorism, perpetrators and polarization: Evidence from Natural Experiments
Journal of Politics. Joint with Vincenzo Bove (University of Warwick), Georgios Efthyvoulou (University of Sheffield), and Harry Pickard (Newcastle University).
[Working Paper] [Replication Material]
Abstract. We analyze whether affective polarization -- the extent to which individuals feel positively towards one party and negatively towards another one -- can be aggravated by terrorism violence. Terrorist attacks intensify pre-existing ideological worldviews and partisan leanings and bring divisive political issues to the fore. Yet, they can also generate strong feelings of cohesion, solidarity and unity, as individuals from the entire political spectrum come together. To identify causal effects, we exploit a series of natural experiments in Great Britain and leverage the timing of fatal far-right and Islamic terrorist attacks and the date of interview of respondents in the British Election Study. We find that Islamic attacks increase affective polarization whereas far-right attacks depolarize the electorate. We provide evidence that this discrepancy can partly be explained by the perceived salience of attacks and different attitudes towards contentious and polarizing issues.
2024. Does Schooling Increase Political Belief Accuracy?
Political Studies. Joint with Marco Giani (King's College London).
[Working Paper] [Replication Material]
Abstract. Citizens must hold accurate beliefs about politically relevant facts to preserve democratic representation, accountability and legislation. We theorize that, abstracting from one’s background, schooling per se does not trigger the epistemological sophistication that is necessary to get a grasp of the political world. In this article, we study whether schooling improves the accuracy of factual beliefs about the share of foreigners and unemployed, later in life. We derive an appealing metric of belief accuracy, matching survey respondents’ beliefs with the corresponding real-world datum at the time of the interview in their country, retrieving high levels of inaccuracy in both issues. More educated individuals display higher belief accuracy, most likely due to selection, rather than causality: compelling otherwise-dropouts to stay in school by extending compulsory education does not entail a significant effect on belief accuracy, in both issues. Taken together, cross-sectional and causal estimates suggest that education is necessary, but not sufficient, to contrast inaccurate beliefs.
2024. Military Culture and Institutional Trust: Evidence from Conscription Reforms across Europe
American Journal of Political Science. Joint with Vincenzo Bove (University of Warwick) and Marco Giani (King's College London).
[Working Paper] [Replication Material]
The paper was awarded the 2023 NEPS Medal for the best publication in Peace Science.
Featured in: Atlantico.fr, De Morgen, Deutsche Welle, Economics Observatory, El Confidencial, Euronews, Internazionale, Italia Oggi, Latvia Sabredriskie Mediji, Linkiesta, KCL News, Knowledia, National Affairs, NRC, NRC, Ro TV Online, The Loop ECPR
Abstract. Does military conscription reduce the distance between the ordinary citizen and the state? Decades after its abolition, numerous European policymakers from across the political spectrum advocate the reintroduction of conscription to foster civic virtues, despite a lack of empirical evidence in this respect. Leveraging quasi-random variation in conscription reforms across 15 European countries, we find that cohorts of men drafted just before its abolition display significantly and substantially lower institutional trust than cohorts of men who were just exempted. At the same time, ending conscription had no effect on institutional trust among women from comparable cohorts. Results are neither driven by more favourable attitudes towards the government, nor by educational choices. Instead, this civil-military gap unfolds through the formation of a homogeneous community with uniform values. We argue that reintroducing a compulsory military service may not produce the effects anticipated by its advocates.
2020. COVID-19, Security Threats and Public Opinions
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy. Joint with Vincenzo Bove (University of Warwick).
Abstract. Throughout the coronavirus outbreak, politicians and commentators have often adopted a war-like rhetoric, invoking a language more often associated to terrorist violence, rather than epidemics. Although COVID-19 represents primarily a public health emergency, not inflicted by human agency, there are similarities in the type and scope of regulations governments have introduced to tackle the virus and to respond to terrorist attacks. In this article, we first ask what we can learn from the extant studies on the attitudinal and emotional consequences of terrorism, relating it to recent research on public opinions in the wake of COVID-19, in order to better understand and predict how the pandemic will influence public sentiments. We then analyze how attitudes can shift when a critical event not only threatens the population of a country as a whole, but directly affects its political leader. Leveraging recently released survey data, we show how the announcement of Angela Merkel’s quarantine significantly dampened the trust in and the credibility of her government, although this effect was short-lived.
Berlinguer I Love You (Still): the Downstream Effects of Expressive Voting, joint with Elias Dinas (European University Institute) and Biljana Meiske (European University Institute)
Abstract. For nearly as long as the rational voting paradox has puzzled scholars, it has been recognized that voters' decisions are influenced by expressive motivations. Yet, since disentangling emotional from instrumental drivers remains an inherently difficult task, little is known about how voting on the former grounds can shape future political preferences. We fill this gap by focusing on a rare instance of expressive voting: support for the Italian Communist Party (PCI) in the 1984 European election, preceded by the sudden death of PCI's leader, Enrico Berlinguer. Via a Regression Discontinuity approach, exploiting differential expressive motives along the border(s) of Berlinguer's electoral district, we show that municipal-level support for PCI increased more sharply in 1984 in areas where voters could express their preference for the just-deceased leader. Combining voting records and individual survey data, we further show how votes cast on expressive grounds in 1984 returned to PCI for about five years since Berlinguer's death.
EU Make Me Feel Like A Natural Woman: Elites' Responses to Gender Quotas in the EU Parliament, joint with Anatole Cheysson (University of Bologna) and Biljana Meiske (European University Institute)
Abstract. This paper examines how gender quotas shape the incentives of party selectorates and incumbents. Quotas heighten competition among men, reducing the number of list slots available to them. Women may face similar pressures if quotas attract more female competitors but fail to improve their electability. Increased competition prompts incumbents to signal loyalty to selectorates, which gain stronger control over candidate (re-)nomination. We study these dynamics in the European Parliament (EP), analysing forty years of Roll Call Votes, two surveys of candidates and MEPs, and data on MEPs’ backgrounds and responsibilities. Results show that quotas increase discipline and participation among both men and women, particularly in closed-list systems. We also find that selectorates gain influence over candidates in the nomination process and prioritize political congruence over competence when quotas are in place.
Felon Re-enfranchisement, Race, Arrests, joint with Mariaelisa Epifanio (University of Liverpool) and Giacomo Damioli (University of Bremen)
Abstract. Civil right activists have long advocated for felons’ re-enfranchisement on the ground that felony laws disproportionately affect African Americans due to racial biases in policing.Following their campaigns, several U.S states have recently re-enfranchised felons. We exploit the staggered introduction of such reforms to study the impact of re-enfranchising felons on county-level arrests rates of African Americans. We find that felons re-enfranchisement yields an increase in arrests rates of African Americans in prevalently white counties and a decrease in counties with a sizable Black community. We investigate several explanations for this dual pattern. We show that the strength of civil rights organizations is most likely to explain the decrease in arrest rates of African Americans we document. We find no evidence in favor of an electoral mechanism or a change in crime rates. Additional tests also reveal that felon re-enfranchisement may have triggered a backlash by White citizens.
"Good" Citizens in "Exceptional" Times: The Role of State and Regime Legitimacy, joint with Francesc Amat (Universitat de Barcelona)
Abstract. Numerous scholars have identified history's persistent, time-varying impact on current political attitudes. We study how perceived state and regime legitimacy may impact citizens’ willingness to act as community members and overcome their partisan affiliations, in the face of the pandemic. We exploit the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic as a life-threatening shock that suddenly increased the "visibility'" of the state and prompted a - counter-intuitive - "technocratic" response among citizens, who were urged to follow the experts' advice by their elected leaders. We use an original, representative panel survey fielded in Spain right before the outburst of COVID-19 to test whether the pandemic spurred conflictual reactions in areas where the democratic regime was perceived as less legitimate. We find evidence of a lower technocratic response during the early stages of the pandemic in areas less hostile to Francoism. This finding is corroborated by historical contextual proxies for state legitimacy from the late-XIX and early-XX centuries.
Good COP/Bad COP: Estimating the Impact of Global Political Initiatives on Climate Change Attitudes, joint with Catarina Midões (Università Ca' Foscari)
Featured in: Observador
Abstract. Whilst political initiatives and extreme weather events have been found to shape attitudes towards Climate Change (CC), their effect can be dampened by ideological and cognitive barriers. We study two global, bipartisan, political initiatives, 2021's COP26 in Glasgow and 2016's COP22 in Marrakech, boosting CC salience but having limited short-term concrete repercussions. We merge responses to Wave 8 and 10 of the European Social Survey (ESS), whose roll-out overlapped with the two Conferences, with daily, gridded temperature data, and find that respondents exposed to upwards temperature anomalies before the interview are more concerned about CC. Even accounting for such local salience shocks, respondents interviewed throughout Glasgow’s COP26 - but not 2016's COP22 - and in the weeks following it, were more likely to express a higher preoccupation about CC. The effect appears driven by right-wing respondents, who also experience a reduction in their skepticism of human responsibility for CC.
Time is on their Side? Tracing the Dynamics of Populist Support after Economic Shocks, joint with Costin Ciobanu (Aarhus University)
Abstract. Research finds that economic shocks often bolster support for the Populist Radical Right (PPR). However, little is known about how this effect varies over time, particularly as supply-side and cultural factors come into play. We examine this question by linking longitudinal survey data from the UK with geolocated job destruction announcements. Combining Unexpected Events During Survey (UESD) and Difference-in-Differences (DiD) designs, we capture public responses in the days and months after a shock. We find that, immediately after a negative contextual announcement, voters shift away from the PRR, as competition centers on the economic left-right axis. Over time, however, immigration regains salience, ultimately benefiting the PRR, in ways consistent with existing literature. Our analysis underscores the importance of temporal dynamics in understanding the political impact of economic shocks.
Red "Scare" or Red "Scar"? Early Voting and Habit Formation in Ideologically-Charged Elections, joint with Antonio Schiavone (University of Bologna)
The Name of the Game: Party Branding in Post-Authoritarian Regimes, joint with Elias Dinas (European University Institute), Lucía Doménech Collado (European University Institute), and Ksenia Northmore-Ball (Queen Mary University of London)
The Recruitment Crisis in European Militaries, joint with Vincenzo Bove (IMT Lucca) and Marco Giani (King's College London)
Abstract. After decades of de-mobilization, European countries are suddenly asked to strengthen their military capabilities, through the complementarity of physical and human capital. This critical juncture materializes in a context where European armed forces have consistently struggled to meet their recruitment targets. Understanding the drivers of the long-lasting military "recruitment crisis" is a priority, and deserves a dedicated research agenda. In highlighting the potential of quantitative analysis in this domain, we clarify which data collection and research designs can deliver policy prescriptions regarding the economic and cultural drivers of low enlistment rates. Such an agenda will inform a salient policy debate, focusing on the reinstatement of military conscription, changes in the financial incentives to soldiers, and the optimal framing of military careers.
Social Policy & Administration (Online). Joint with Mariaelisa Epifanio (University of Liverpool), Thomas J. Scotto (University of Strathclyde), and Vera E. Troeger (University of Hamburg).
Featured in: Times Higher Education
Abstract. Motherhood is widely believed to be an important factor slowing down the career progression of women. We present a novel database that combines an original survey of women and mothers working in the UK Higher Education sector with data on the occupational maternity benefits offered by academic employers. This allows users to track, at the individual level, child-bearing experiences and employment histories simultaneously. We describe several aspects of mothers' experiences in academia and how those evolve over the years. We also conduct an empirical analysis of the determinants of maternity leave uptake, showing that women's employment status and family arrangements significantly impact the types of maternity leave – paid or unpaid – taken.
The Motherhood Penalties: Insights from Women in UK Academia, joint with Mariaelisa Epifanio (University of Liverpool), Thomas J. Scotto (University of Strathclyde), and Vera E. Troeger (University of Hamburg)
Abstract. We use an original survey of women employed in the UK higher education sector to investigate different dimensions of the motherhood penalty. Being a mother does not impact salaries, yet slows down career progression in academia. While exhibiting higher satisfaction rates towards the work environment, mothers are more likely to perceive their retribution as unfair with respect to male colleagues. Our paper then explores factors mitigating the motherhood penalty: more generous maternity provisions are associated with higher salaries, possibly by reducing the crowding out of research activity following childbirth. The same holds for longer childcare hours, and for an even distribution of responsibilities within the household. Our estimates also highlight the importance of a supportive work environment for mothers’ careers and well-being. Taken together, our findings suggest the necessity of a multi-faceted policy response to the motherhood penalties.
Motherhood, Leave Generosity and Academic Productivity, joint with Mariaelisa Epifanio (University of Liverpool), Thomas J. Scotto (University of Strathclyde), and Vera E. Troeger (University of Hamburg)
Abstract. Career breaks associated with motherhood are widely believed to slow down the career progression of women, depreciating broadly defined "human capital". We investigate the relationship between motherhood, generosity of maternity benefits, and productivity in one particular high-skill profession - academia - where working conditions are relatively flexible and research output measurable. Combining novel administrative and survey data with information on individual publications, we first establish that a motherhood penalty in the quantity (but not in the quality) of research output does exist among female academics in the UK. Next, we exploit cross-university variation in maternity provisions to causally identify the effect of more generous leave on productivity. Our analysis shows that more generous maternity pay positively impacts short- and long-run productivity and thus reduces the output gap generated by motherhood.