Climate Change and Stream Yield: Examining three watersheds in the Black Hills of South Dakota

Author: Lucas Graunke, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

Mentor: Dr. Lisa Kunza, Department of Chemistry, Biology, and Health Sciences

Mentor: Dr. William Capehart, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Mentor: Dr. Mengistu Nisrani, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Water resources in the Black Hills provide multiple local recreational and economic benefits. Long-term stream monitoring data in the US and worldwide depict changes in average annual and seasonal stream yield, which can impact aquatic habitats and water quality. The main objectives of this project are 1) to model stream yield changes in response to two scenarios of projected climate change and 2) discern what changes in stream yield are observed and which climate change scenario alters stream yield more. Our selected watersheds are the upper reaches of Spring Creek, Battle Creek and French Creek, which share similarities in topography, land use and climate. Data from Global Climate Models, which generate output using Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, is used in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to model stream yield. Our results indicate earlier peak streamflows, greatest increases in stream yield during the cold season months, and decreases or smaller increases in stream yield occurring during the late summer and early fall. Climate change will continue to affect stream yield in the Black Hills and contribute to alterations in water quality and available water for industrial, agricultural, and recreational uses.