"It was very cold too, only 24.9 F when I got off the bus at 8 am on Wednesday. There was heavy frost oneverything, and all standing water was frozen. It warmed up to 55 in the colony by 2 pm Wednesday. By late afternoonWednesday the whole understory and ground were covered with butterflies but many were also airborne. There wasstill a lot of ice and patches of snow around.
"At El Rosario sanctuary there had been 1,000 trees filled with butterflies before the storm. It's so hardto estimate what's left because so much of the colony is now on the ground. They're not moving but I know I can'tjust assume they're dead. In places the butterflies are piled 10 layers thick--it looks like when you rake leaves---hardto believe they're all butterflies."
What Would You Do?
Thinking on Your Feet
Dave knew he was witnessing a serious storm and the death toll would be high. But how could this be documentedscientifically? Questions were racing through his mind:What data would be important to collect?How would he collect it?Butterflies don't have a pulse the way people do, so what could he measure to be sure that butterflies weretruly dead?How could he reliably estimate the number of butterflies that had died from the storm, and the number thatremained alive?Dave knew that if the methods chosen were not accepted by other scientists, the conclusions will not be acceptedas valid either. As luck would have it, Dr. Lincoln Brower was scheduled to arrive in a few days. We'll show youhow the team dealt with the problem when the mortality study is released next week. In the meantime, considerone of the questions that was troubling Dave:Challenge Question #2:
"How do you know if a butterfly is dead--and not just paralyzed by the cold?"(To respond to this question, please followthe instructions below.)
Meet the Kust Family!
After 20 years in the classroom, Minnesota teacher Dave Kust dreamed of taking a sabbatical and traveling southwith the monarchs to Mexico for the winter. He wrote a proposal to his school and the administration granted hiswishes. He and his family left Minnesota during last fall's migration. They drove all the way to Texas while thebutterflies migrated overhead, then boarded a plane for the last leg of the trip, and reached the sanctuaries intime to witness the butterflies' arrival.
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