Research

Building wealth over lifetimes became possible for a broader span of the population in developed countries over the 20th century compared to any time in history. This was driven by more people having the capacity to save because of the expansion of middle-class jobs and education, access to highly developed financial markets, and government support for real estate investment. Housing wealth remains the dominant wealth-building vehicle for those outside the top decile of the income distribution. This, coupled with the high and growing level of residential segregation and local allocation of public goods in countries such as the United States, drives the unequal ability of individuals to build wealth depending on neighborhood of origin and residence. Segregated neighborhoods are drawn along racial and class lines, and while much progress has been made, historical and structural factors such as the legacy of slavery have contributed to the difficulty of fully closing the Black–White wealth gap. More generally, children who grow up in lower-status areas are significantly less likely to rise up the wealth and status ladder, and this is driven by a variety of disadvantages in those neighborhoods. These include higher levels of pollution; worse public services, especially education; and fewer prospects for jobs and training. Some of these can be changed by moving individuals and families to better neighborhoods, while the effects of a polluted environment on the development of 0- to 5-year-olds have long-lasting and often irreversible consequences. These factors have kept the “American Dream” of equality of opportunity and the ability to save and build wealth as individuals and households out of reach for significant portions of society. There is renewed interest in infrastructure investments and place-based policies to address this opportunity gap, which, due to its scale, is beginning to be recognized as having negative implications for the aggregate economy. Economists should maintain their focus on these important questions and continue to improve data sets as the range of assets in which people can build and store wealth grows.

Abstract: This paper examines the long-term impact of historic civilizational hubs on the modern spatial distribution of population and political power. Using a novel geolocalized dataset of approximately 500 historical civilizations from 1000 CE to 1500 CE, we explore how proximity to ancient civilizational centers influences both historical and modern outcomes. We find that regions closer to the centers of historical civilizations consistently had higher populations, and this centrality persists in shaping modern population distributions and the location of political capitals. However, when examining economic activity, as measured by night-time lights data, we find no significant evidence that historical centrality influences present-day economic performance. These results contribute to the literature on economic persistence by highlighting the enduring demographic and political relevance of historical state centers, while demonstrating the limits of their influence on contemporary economic geography.

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of sibling sex composition on marriage outcomes in the United States using a comprehensive, newly-constructed dataset from Texas covering individuals born between 1976-1997. Leveraging both singleton and twin analyses, we find robust evidence that having a same-sex sibling significantly increases the likelihood of marriage and accelerates marriage timing. We also reveal substantial heterogeneity across racial groups: White individuals consistently show strong effects, while Black and Hispanic populations sometimes exhibit distinctive patterns, including reduced divorce rates for Black men with same-sex twins and delayed marriage for Hispanic men. Furthermore, we document significant wealth-based variation, with sibling sex effects on marriage predominantly present in affluent counties. This socioeconomic divide suggests that parental resource allocation strategies, sibling relationships, and cultural marriage norms vary substantially by wealth status. Our results illuminate the complex interplay between family structure, economic conditions, and cultural factors in shaping marriage decisions, highlighting the critical importance of considering both racial background and socioeconomic context when studying family formation patterns.

Abstract: This paper examines how Christian identity interacts with political ideology to shape student attitudes toward cancel culture on U.S. college campuses. Using data from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) Campus Free Speech Survey, I analyze support for three disruptive tactics: using violence to stop a campus speech, blocking entry to events, and shouting down speakers. Among Protestants, liberal students are more supportive of disruptive tactics than their atheist peers, while conservative Protestants are consistently less supportive. Among Catholics and Orthodox, liberals are more supportive of violence and blocking but less supportive of shouting, while conservatives generally do not differ from atheists. These results show that Christianity’s influence on cancel culture attitudes is not uniform: for Protestants, Christian identity amplifies ideological divides, whereas for Catholics and Orthodox, the patterns are more selective and internally inconsistent. I propose potential mechanisms, including identity conflict and church-based mobilization, to account for these divergent patterns.

Abstract: This study examines the labor market impact of Korean Free Economic Zones (KFEZs) on regional unemployment and economic inactivity. KFEZs, first introduced in Busan and Incheon in 2003, were designed to attract foreign investment through tax exemptions, tariff reductions, and regulatory incentives. Using monthly panel data from 16 South Korean regions between 2000 and 2020, this research applies the Generalized Synthetic Control (GSC) method to address challenges of staggered treatment adoption and violations of the parallel trends assumption. Contrary to the expectation that KFEZs would stimulate job creation and economic participation, results indicate that treated regions experienced a small but statistically significant increase in unemployment rates (0.15 percentage points) and a substantial rise in the economically inactive population (approximately 89,000 individuals). These findings suggest that, rather than improving labor market outcomes, KFEZs may introduce structural shocks that increase economic inactivity in long term.