Research

Work in progress:
Panel Conditioning Effect: What Do European Data Say? 

The Panel Conditioning Effect (PCE)- the fact that responses to survey questions vary systematically with respondents’ tenure in the panel- has recently been identi f ied in U.S. survey data. This paper documents the presence and relevance of PCE using a novel European survey dataset. I provide robust evidence of PCE in the European context, confirming its statistical significance. Respondents who complete more waves exhibit a clear decline in individual uncertainty about inflation, home prices, and household income. In parallel, tenure profiles show a marked rise in attention: perceptions converge toward CPI and unemployment realizations. These f indings highlight the need to rethink survey design and interpretation, particularly in longitudinal settings.

Beyond the Average MPC: Who Adjust, What, and Why.
(with Francesco Lancia, Jessica Piccolo, and Alessia Russo)

This paper analyzes household adjustment to unexpected income and fiscal shocks along multiple margins, including consumption, savings, and debt repayment. We develop a model of heterogeneous marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) that incorporates variation in financial constraints, risk preferences, and macroeconomic expectations. To discipline the model, we field a novel household survey that elicits subjective beliefs and presents hypothetical idiosyncratic and policy-induced income shocks. Self-reported behavioral responses are matched to administrative records, allowing for identification of liquidity constraints and hand-to-mouth status.