Current Projects
Current Projects
(Please see my CV for a complete list)
(Please see my CV for a complete list)
Publications
Gone with the wind: The consequences of US drone strikes in Pakistan (with Michael Jetter); Economic Journal. (2023). An earlier version can be accessed here.
This paper explores the consequences of the 420 US drone strikes in Pakistan from 2006 to 2016. Our identification strategy exploits wind conditions that complicate the feasibility of drone strikes. We find drone strikes encourage terrorism, causing 17.5 percent of all terror attacks in Pakistan and up to 6,000 terror deaths. Distinguishing between reactions of outsiders (the Pakistani populace) and insiders (terrorists), we analyze (i) the sentiment of US-related coverage in a leading Pakistani newspaper, (ii) anti-US protests, and (iii) Google searches indicative of radicalization. Our findings suggest outsiders turn against the US and sympathize with insiders because of drone strikes.
Income and Terrorism: Insights from Subnational Data (with Michael Jetter and David Stadelmann). Journal of Conflict Resolution (2024). An earlier version can be accessed here.
This paper first introduces a theoretical formalization connecting a polity's income level to terrorism. Our framework can accommodate different underlying assumptions about individual- and society-level grievances, yielding competing hypotheses. We then construct a panel database to study terrorism for 1,527 subnational regions in 75 countries between 1970 and 2014. Results consistently imply an inverted U-shape that remains robust to incorporating a comprehensive set of region-level covariates, region- and time-fixed effects, as well as estimating an array of alternative specifications. The threat of terrorism systematically rises as low-income polities become richer, peaking at GDP/capita levels of approximately US $12,800 (in constant 2005 PPP US $), but then falls consistently above that level. This pattern emerges for domestic and transnational terrorism alike. While peaks differ by perpetrator ideology, the inverted U shape also prevails across ideology-specific subsamples. In sum, alleviating poverty may first exacerbate terrorism, contrary to much of the proposed recipes advocated since 9/11.
Post-Cold War Civil Conflict and the Role of History and Religion: A Stochastic Search Variable Selection Approach (with Michael Jetter, Christopher F. Parmeter, and Andres Ramirez Hassan). Published in Economic Modelling (2022). An earlier version can be accessed here.
Despite colossal economic and human losses caused by conflict and violence, designing effective policies to avoid conflict remains challenging. While the literature has proposed a voluminous set of candidate predictors, their robustness is questionable and model uncertainty masks the true drivers of conflicts and wars. Considering a comprehensive set of 34 potential determinants in 175 post-Cold-War countries, we employ stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) to sort through all 234 possible models to address model uncertainty. We find past conflict constitutes the most powerful predictor of current conflict: Path dependency matters. Also, larger shares of Jewish, Muslim, or Christian citizens are associated with increased conflict, while economic and political factors remain less relevant than colonial origin and religion. Our results help future researchers and policymakers by inching toward causality and providing a standard set of covariates that need to be accounted for in designing any relevant policies.
Communications Technology and Terrorism (with Michael Jetter); Published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution (2019). An earlier version can be accessed here.
By facilitating the flow of information in society, communications technology (CT; e.g., newspapers, radio, television, the internet) can help terrorists to (i) spread their message, (ii) recruit followers, and (iii) coordinate among group members. However, CT also facilitates monitoring and arresting terrorists. This paper formulates the hypothesis that a society's level of CT is systematically related to terrorism. We introduce a simple theoretical framework, suggesting that terrorism first becomes more attractive with a rise in CT, but then decreases, following an inverted U-shape. Accessing data for 199 countries from 1970-2014, we find evidence consistent with these predictions: Terrorism peaks at intermediate ranges of CT and corresponding magnitudes are sizeable. Our estimations control for a range of potentially confounding factors, as well as country- and year-fixed effects. Results are robust to a battery of alternative specifications and placebo regressions. We find no evidence of a potential reporting bias explaining our findings.
Work in Progress
Money from Afar: Analyzing the Link Between Remittances and Terrorism, Revise and Resubmit at the European Economic Review. The Working Paper can be accessed here.
Despite the popular rhetoric around remittances and money transfers from abroad being a convenient source of terrorism financing and the resulting imposition of an array of financial regulations on such service providers, the evidence linking remittances to terrorism is largely insufficient. The present study empirically analyzes the relationship between remittances and terrorism using global data from 1970 to 2019. In order to isolate causality, the study exploits the variation in remittances of a country induced by natural disasters in related countries - the relatedness being defined in terms of the share of migrants. The empirical evidence shows a positive relationship between remittances and terrorism that consistently emerges in various empirical specifications, with alternative outcomes variables, and while using alternative instruments, contributing to our understanding of the role of remittances in terrorism. Recentering the instrument and conducting falsification tests lends further support to the empirical findings.
From Education to Extremism? Exploring Madrassa Identity and Its Implications with Samreen Malik and Jocelyn Belanger.
Schools worldwide play a key role in both imparting cognitive skills and shaping students' values, identity, and behavior. Using a novel lab-in-the-field experiment with Madrassa (religious schools) students in Pakistan, we causally examine the impact of Madrassa identity on extremist attitudes, comparing results across economic strata. We find that Madrassa identity exacerbates extremism among poorer students but mitigates it among wealthier ones, driving both groups toward collective norms. The findings are distinct from religious identity. Our results challenge simplified narratives linking Madrassas to extremism and offer nuanced insights into the intersection of economic deprivation, identity, and radicalization.
Gender Dynamics Amidst Parental Struggles (GAPS) during Crisis (XCEPT-funded project)
This research will provide insights into the socio-economic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan. We aim to explore how terrorism influences gender disparities, using the vote share of religious political parties to investigate if terrorist propaganda fuels gender discrimination in affected regions. We adopt a mixed-methods approach, utilizing both qualitative and quantitative data. Initially, we will conduct Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) across six districts in three provinces—Punjab, Sindh, and KPK—to gain insights into how terrorism impacts education. FGDs will involve parents with school-age children and teachers, shedding light on the effects of terrorism on school attendance and decision-making. For the quantitative analysis, we will use a difference-in-difference (DID) method, combining data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) survey to assess the effects of terrorism on female education and health from 1998 to 2019. We will focus on the impact of adverse security situation on immunization rates, visits to doctors, and education completion in females versus males in their formative years.
Echoes of Violence: Evidence from the Malala Attack and Public Attitudes Toward Women (First draft)
This paper examines the immediate public response to the 2012 attack on Malala Yousafzai, using nationally representative survey interviews from the World Values Survey conducted in Pakistan. I exploit the precise timing of the attack and interview dates to assess changes in attitudes toward women’s rights and education. The analysis provides evidence of regressive shifts in gender-related beliefs. The findings highlight how a high-profile violent event can influence public discourse and attitudes on gender equality, especially in patriarchal and conflict-affected settings.
On the Madrassa Conundrum in Terrorism Studies
The madrassa conundrum in terrorism studies points to the problem where madrassas - the religious seminaries - are consistently found breeding intolerance and hatred in their students but terrorists do not emerge predominantly from madrassas. The role, if any, played by madrassas in breeding terrorism is thus still not clear. In the present study, I explore how madrassas influence the utility function of potential terrorists. Based on the concept of identity choice introduced by Akerlof and Kranton (2000), I hypothesize that the narrative advanced by madrassas lowers the net costs of identity manifestation for the terrorists by reducing the resistance towards their socially unacceptable violent behavior. In particular, I propose that the role of madrassas in terrorism is through two channels: Directly, the madrassa network is exploited by the terrorist organizations for recruitment and fund-raising, and indirectly, by madrassas changing the prescriptions of ideal behavior for their students which makes it harder for them to identify and resist extremist tendencies. The study contributes both to a better understanding of the drivers of terrorism and in elaborating the role of identity in the manifestation of violent behavior.