09-12-2025

I am delighted to share that I have been awarded an ERC Consolidator Grant (2M Euro) for my project FORECAST – a five-year initiative to advance the prediction science for geohazards. The project targets one of the central open problems in geoscience and geoengineering: ex-ante prediction of catastrophic events, including landslides, rockbursts, glacier breakoffs, and volcanic eruptions.

FORECAST aims to establish the scientific foundations of Geohazard Prediction Science by uniting multiphysics, statistical mechanics, nonlinear dynamics, and high-performance computing into a unified prediction framework. The research is strongly multidisciplinary and covers a spectrum ranging from innovative large-scale computational modelling to novel real-time dynamical forecasting methods.

Ultimately, the goal is to bridge fundamental science with practical forecasting tools, contributing to improved early-warning capabilities for societies exposed to climate-driven extreme geohazards.

I am deeply grateful to the European Research Council (ERC) for this support and to my colleagues and collaborators for their inspiration and encouragement. I look forward to working on this exciting project soon.

03-12-2025

Our group enjoyed an evening of team bonding with a fun bowling session followed by a nice dinner at Latiude-59°.

11-11-2025

We are excited to announce the launch of the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE)! 

Motivated by the recent volcanic unrest at Axial Seamount, we have established the EFE as a real-time scientific initiative to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based, and reproducible framework. Unlike the retrospective analyses commonly practiced in the community, the EFE operates prospectively and ex ante—in real time, before any eruption occurs—to evaluate predictive capability under true operational forecasting conditions.

The EFE implements a transparent protocol for digital authentication and delayed disclosure. Each forecast is securely timestamped and cryptographically hashed. The resulting hash digests are made public immediately, while the complete forecast documents will be released only after the eruption has occurred. This procedure provides verifiable proof of forecast issuance and eliminates any possibility of retrospective modification or model adjustment, establishing a rigorous scientific basis for evaluating predictive performance. Forecasts are issued monthly, or more frequently when warranted.

The first forecast was formally sealed and timestamped on 8 November 2025, marking the official start of the Experiment. A detailed description of the experimental design and authentication protocol is available in our arXiv preprint: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.06128. The EFE is also presented on our Geohazards Crisis Observatory website: http://www.geohazards-observatory.com/efe.

This initiative is led by myself and involves an international team of researchers: Didier Sornette, Pengjia Song, William W. Chadwick Jr., Scott D. Nooner, Maochuan (Brandon) Zhang, and William Wilcock.

09-06-2025

Dr Lei delivered the first Haimson Keynote Lecture (ARMA Early Career Keynote) at the 59th US Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium held at Santa Fe, USA. The talk is titled: “Predicting Catastrophic Failures: From Landslides to Rockbursts, Glacier Breakoffs, and Volcanic Eruptions”. See a self-recorded version of the talk below.

13-04-2025

We are excited to announce the Geohazards Crisis Observatory, which aims to leverage next-generation data-driven, physics-based predictive science to mitigate geohazard risks, and protect lives and infrastructure. See our website (https://www.geohazards-observatory.com) for more details.

07-03-2025

Dr Lei was selected as the Early Career Keynote Speaker for ARMA2025 (American Rock Mechanics Association) and will deliver the Bezalel Haimson Keynote Lecture during the upcoming 59th US Rock Mechanics / Geomechanics Symposium at Santa Fe, New Mexico.

22-01-2025

Dr Lei was invited to join the Editorial Board of International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences, which is a leading peer-reviewed internatinoal journal in the field of rock mecahnics and rock engineering.

16-12-2024

Dr Lei was selected to be a Fellow of the Young Academy of Europe (YAE). YAE is a pan-European initiative of young scientists for networking, scientific exchange and science policy. Members of the YAE are leading young scholars who are outstanding researchers with recognised national/international excellence. See https://yacadeuro.org/ for more details about YAE.

14-11-2024

Dr Lei received the Chin-Fu Tsang Coupled Processes Award from the ISRM Commission on Coupled THMC Processes in Fractured Rock and delivered an award lecture at the 4th International Conference on Coupled Processes in Fractured Geological Media in Kyoto, Japan.

08-11-2024

Group dinner + farewell for Wenbo Pan @Stationen-Uppsala.

29-11-2021

Dr Lei received the Scott Sloan Best Paper Award from Computers and Geotechnics for his lead-author paper "The use of discrete fracture networks for modelling coupled geomechanical and hydrological behaviour of fractured rocks", co-authored with Dr John-Paul Latham (Imperial College London) and Dr Chin-Fu Tsang (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

13-09-2019

Dr Lei received the prestigious Rocha Medal Award from the International Society for Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering (ISRM). He also delivered a plenary talk (also the opening talk of the entire congress) during the 14th International Congress of Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering at Foz do Iguassu, Brazil, 13-18 Sep 2019 (number of participants: ~600).