Research

"Rethinking 'Distance From': the Examples of Wittenberg and Mainz" (main text, appendix)

Abstract: An influential literature uses distance-based variables as proxies for exposure, or access, to treatment interventions that entailed potential economic impacts. This paper examines the assumptions underlying this practice and finds historical and econometric drawbacks that engender misleading conclusions. Historical data challenge the assumption that distance determined access to ideas or technology even in pre-industrial societies. Replication exercises and statistical simulations reveal that “distance from” variables frequently produce falsely significant estimates in first-stage IV and OLS regressions and potentially violate the exclusion restriction in the IV second stage. My findings suggest caution in using distance-based measures as proxies for the diffusion of information and resources. 

"Voting on the Reformation" (draft)

Abstract: A large literature measures the economic consequences of the Reformation, particularly Protestantism. An important yet overlooked question is what kinds of people became Protestants in the first place, and whether economic factors influenced their decisions. I study this question using rare individual-level data from 16th-century German urban referenda. I find that privileged citizens, whether defined by birth, political status, or residential address, supported Protestantism less than ordinary citizens. Guilds making a living from capital also showed less support than guilds relying on labor. As a possible explanation, Catholic institutions offered the elite exclusive rights and economic networks that Protestantism threatened to abolish. These results highlight the roles of self-selection and preexisting demand, shedding new light on the current literature’s findings and assumptions.

"Technological Change and the Market for Books, 1450-1550" (draft available upon request)

Abstract: This paper considers how movable-type printing’s economic features shaped the early modern book market using product-level data. Building on a lively medieval tradition of manuscript production, Gutenberg’s innovation did not simply reduce costs; it introduced new incentives and constraints that altered both the product’s nature and the market’s structure. First, printing’s business model encouraged the production of shorter and simpler books targeting a poorer and less literate audience. Second, its cost structure led to product differentiation and prolific trade rather than direct competition and localized production, making available a greater variety of products offering diverse information and perspectives. Rather than simply making medieval books cheaper and more abundant, these changes may represent printing technology’s true contribution to European economic development.