10:00 ～ 11:30
論題：Empirical Analysis of Monetization and Sovereign Default: A Logit and Random Forest Analysis
報告者：福井将来 (関西学院大学）
要旨：
Empirical analyses of fiscal crises, such as sovereign defaults and high inflation, have identified public debt levels as a key factor. However, these previous studies have not sufficiently considered the possibility that the path to a fiscal crisis may differ depending on the currency denomination of public debt. An increase in foreign currency-denominated public debt raises the probability of sovereign default, whereas an increase in sovereign currency-denominated public debt may not affect the likelihood of sovereign default, as central banks have the option to monetize the debt. Instead, it may increase the probability of an inflation crisis. This study examines whether differences in the currency denomination of public debt makes a difference in the type of crisis at stake.
昼食 11:30 ～ 12:30
12:30 ～ 14:00
論題：The Consequences of Partial Fiscal Decentralization: Decentralized Police Forces and Local Crime
報告者：野津成希 (大阪大学)
要旨：
While the most fundamental advantage of fiscal decentralization is based on the premise that decentralization enables local governments to respond to consumer preferences for public goods, empirical evidence is limited due to data constraints. In particular, the impact of cases where such decentralization is partial is not fully understood. To address this gap in evidence, this study examines the consequences of partial fiscal decentralization by focusing on police decentralization in Japan, known as the Municipal Police (MP). Using variation in MP implementation on a population-based threshold, we show that the introduction of MP
i) raises both expenditures and transfer revenue and ii) increases reported crime. Additional analysis suggests that the increase in reported crime stems from changes in police behavior rather than shifts in criminal activity. These findings indicate partial fiscal decentralization leads to improved policing through better response to citizens’ preferences.
14:10 ～ 15:40
論題：Convergence Hypothesis and Mobility: A Policy Analysis
報告者：髙橋 済（高崎経済大学）
要旨：
According to theory, poor regions grow faster than rich regions. However, some empirical studies do not find evidence of regional income convergence in Japan. One explanation for this inconsistency is the impact of migration on the human capital and demographics of the regions.
To analyze this inconsistency in detail, we examine the relationship between regional disparities in the quality of human capital and differences in population structure and migration using data on inter-prefectural population movements by industry from the Census: Population Movement Tabulation (Statistics Bureau).
We show that constraints on migration (e.g., travel costs) significantly constrain the workers’ choice of region. This fact hinders migration from low-productivity to high-productivity regions noted in the convergence hypothesis, a result that may explain the significant but small empirical effect of migration quality and quantity of labor. Furthermore, we found that the strength of constraints varies widely by industry, and these migration constraints also depend on the characteristics of workers (sex, age, education).
We plan to discuss the empirical results from the perspective of economic growth theory and add several arguments on place-based policies.
15:50 ～ 17:20
論題：生成AIと経済学研究（仮）
報告者：新居 理有（龍谷大学）
要旨：
TBA
18:00 ～ 19:30 夕食・懇親会
20:00 ～ 21:00
題目：「国際学術誌投稿・採択に必要な準備と戦略について」