“A church that wraps its arms around arguably the most vulgar, most corrupt president in American history will repel good people, especially those people who’ve encountered MAGA’s claws.” - David French, New York Times
Posted August 11, 2026
David French's July 30 opinion piece in the New York Times focuses on the distaste that many Gen Z* - ers are feeling towards organized religion because of its embrace of Trump, "arguably the most vulgar...corrupt president in American history." Personal traits and behavior aside, the question might also be asked, "What can church-going MAGA supporters possibly be thinking about Trump policies and practices that are so contrary to the religion they profess to practice?"
Focusing on two MAGA voter blocs (Evangelicals and white Catholics), we find that support for Donald Trump is based to a large extent on cultural issues.
Evangelicals are the most supportive of Trump - more than 80% voted for him in 2024. Polling shows their support driven by several key factors. First and foremost are the abortion restrictions made by the 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court. Lower court judicial nominations also figure heavily in their support - Trump's appointing of conservative judges across federal courts who are likely to rule favorably on abortion, religious‑liberty cases, and cultural issues (most specifically, roll-back of LGBTQ protections and transgender policies).
Among other religious affiliations, white Catholic voters represented the second largest support group - 61% voted for Trump in 2024. Much of this support was due to the restrictions on abortion imposed by Trump judges ("single issue Catholics"), but it was also driven by economic concerns - i.e., inflation - and, like Evangelicals, cultural issues. Surprisingly, to me at least, is their support for the immigration policies espoused in the 2024 campaign - many white Catholics apparently do not consider social justice issues as important as the cultural issues. [Trump's share of the total Catholic vote in 2024 was 55%. He had considerably less support among Hispanic (43%) and African-American Catholics (10%-15%).]
There has been some movement away Trump among Catholic voters - Trump's approval rating among Catholics is now about 48%. His support among white Evangelicals remains high at about 69%. As in the general population, younger evangelicals (Trump approval 30-45%) and younger Catholics (Trump approval 25-35%) are turning from Trump. They are more anti-war, more pro-immigrant, and less driven by abortion politics than older evangelicals and Catholics.
How will this play out in the 2024 mid-terms?
Will Trump's loss of support among Evangelicals and "single-issue" Catholics combined with a higher turnout among young voters (table below) turn the House blue?
Will these voters overcome the extreme gerrymandering** by Republicans after Rucho v Common Cause (2019 - sidebar) and Louisiana v. Callais (2026 - sidebar)?
Rucho v Common Cause
Louisiana v. Callais
These Christians Got It Right in 2020
Notes
* Typically defined as people born from 1997 to 2012.
** The best current estimate is that Republicans, at Trump's behest, have gerrymandered away about 12 Democratic‑leaning U.S. House seats since the 2024 elections. This is about twice the number of gerrymandered seats between Rucho v Common Cause and the 2024 elections.
