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Governmentalisation of Risk
Governmentalisation of Risk
Geo-Security
The national security ambit of policy undertakes to secure mutual survival and safety of institutions of state, people, economic assets and technology infrastructures. The design of national security agencies is concerned with strategies to prevent and mitigate risks of organised crime and acts of terrorism including cyber attacks, and timely response to national emergency and disaster incidents.
Security Demographic
The term security demographic (Cincotta, 2003) denotes a state of human health and safety characterised by a distinctive range of population structures and dynamics that make civil conflict less likely. The security demographic is predicated on the demographic transition (to lower rates of birth and death) and calls for demographic analysis as a core feature of policy development. In order to obtain global peace and a more secure world, the security demographic requires political stability in weak states.
Stochastic Framework
Stochastic Framework
Stochastic Process
Indicates a statistical process whose behaviour is non-deterministic, such that the resulting systemic state (equilibrium condition) is determined by components that are both predictable and random.
The Qualitative Statistical Model
The Qualitative Statistical Model (QSM) is a stochastic modeling tool constituted by a physical (urban capital) index, and a non-physical (social capital) index. A state of qualitative neutrality - considered an ideal objective of policy design - may be demonstrated to occur at the equilibrium of these principal indices.
The Dynamic Policy Model (DPM) refers to a discretionary policy framework of governmental fiscal and monetary policy. Nested in the qualitative statistical model (above), the DPM articulates a region of dynamic economic development being an arena in which governments manouvre the policy objective function (POF).
Efficacious leverage of the binary forces of 'allocative function' and 'redistributive function' is therefore an essential task of managing policy space.
The Autologous Country Vector (ACV) introduces the concepts of 'synchronicity' and 'formulative-duration' to statistical matrix computations, and imputes a matrix solution set contingent to a variable country vector set. For any given country, the temporal magnitude of the country vector is enumerated by structural components, namely country level, country gradient, and country momentum. Partial analysis facilitates country transformation factors that yield critical indicators of country dynamism and country residual autonomy.
Regionalisation
Regionalisation
Balance of Powers
A balance of powers imperative (see Balance of Powers flowchart) is basic to the contemporary global system. Universal thematic domains of humanism, functionalism and globalism imbue international regimes predisposed to mainstreaming activities that consolidate a regionally integrated and balanced global order.
Peace Dividend
The geo-political corollary of regionalisation is a an innate ‘peace dividend’ that accrues as a result of convergence, geographical association, and mutual interdependence. Mature, advanced, and regionally integrated sovereign states are thereby less likely to suffer conflict and hostilities with rival states.
Disaster Management
Disaster Management
Risk Mitigation
Emergent risks and new vulnerabilities require international coordination to reduce country exposures. This phenomenon is compounded by the heightened scale of losses including the increased complexity and inter-dependencies of technological systems on which modern societies depend.
Market-Linked Risk
Extreme market-linked risk, especially concerning less developed countries, is assessed using a number of vulnerability indicators covering all economic sectors. In particular, the International Monetary Fund closely monitors the international monetary system for extreme risk using an Early Warning System (EWS) market surveillance model.
Natural Disaster Risk
A composite index deriving a measure of both economic vulnerability and ecological fragility is encapsulated in the Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI). This index appraises the risk and absorptive capacity of small states using estimates for size and probability, exposure and resilience.
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