Impact Calculus

Ariana Arvanitis & Sam Meacham,

Original Publication: September 25, 2019, Updated: July 25, 2020

Impact calculus is one of the best ways in debate to emphasize the importance of your argument and make it uniquely appealing to the judge, thus encouraging them to vote on it. It is important to remember that impact calculus is also a critical way to foster clash, meaning it is a chance for you to directly engage with your opponents’ arguments. There are three primary levels of impact calculus every novice should be familiar with. Here you can find example of impact calculus used to defend the climate change impact against a generic regional war impact.

1. Magnitude: Magnitude is defined as something that is of “great size or extent” (Merriam-Webster).

By using the word “magnitude” to describe your impact, you are conveying to the judge that you have the biggest, most intense impact in debate.

Example: Our climate change impact has a greater magnitude than the war impact because climate change effects every person on Earth, when their war may just be regional.

2. Probability: Probability is defined as “the quality or state of being probable” (Merriam-Webster).

By using the word “probability” to describe your impact, you are articulating that your impact has the greatest likelihood of occurring, which is why it should be the judge’s priority to vote for.

Example: Our climate change impact is more probable than the war impact because there are no checks on climate change, but there are more barriers to a war escalating such as intervening actors or the lack of resources to fight a war.

3. Time Frame: Time frame is defined as “a period of time especially with respect to some action or project”.

By using the word “time frame” to describe your impact, you are communicating that your impact is of immediate concern because it is going to happen as soon as possible, if not having already started. This phrase is best used with the word “faster” or slower” in front of it.

Example: Our climate change impact has a faster time frame than the war impact because our evidence cites numerous scientists and conclusive research that indicates it is happening now and will continue to occur.

PRO TIPS:

Once you have the three basic categories of impact calculus down, you can move on to some more advanced techniques. It is not enough to just say "our impact outweighs on magnitude, timeframe, and probability," even if you have explained those categories well in the context of your impact. To go further, you should recognize that your impact, no matter how strong it is, will probably not outweigh your opponent's impact in every category.

For example, if your impact is climate change, and your opponent is making an impact argument about US-Iran war, you definitely don't have timeframe on your side, but you probably have a higher magnitude. To compare your impact's strengths to your opponents', an argument such as "magnitude comes first - even if climate change takes longer, even if faster, humanity can always recover from a limited war while climate change would kill every last human being - the importance of future generations who would be precluded by climate change means that preventing climate change is far more important."

Conversely, if the roles are flipped and you must defend Iran war and timeframe, you could say "timeframe comes first - you can only die once and Iran war would kill almost everybody, so you should live to fight another day and count on intervening actors solving climate change instead of risking a war coming in the next year."

Of course, it will be important to contextualize your impact debating as closely as possible to your specific impact, and the gold standard is reading evidence that does its own impact calculus.

Works Cited:

“Magnitude.” Merriam-Webster, Merriam-Webster, www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/magnitude.

“Probability.” Merriam-Webster, Merriam-Webster, www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/probability.

“Time Frame.” Merriam-Webster, Merriam-Webster, www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/timeframe.